Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 26 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Kosovo was off by 4.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 628 hours from 30 September to 26 October 2026, and 70% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 109 MW (15.3%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Kosovo was off by 4.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 628 hours from 30 September to 26 October 2026, and 70% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 109 MW (15.3%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Kosovo came 33 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 27 MW, against average demand of 669 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 75% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

628 hours from 30 September to 26 October 2026

Average error4.1%

Bias+2.9%

Hours within 5%70%

Worst miss109 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+18 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 109 MW (15.3%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 823 MW, reported 714 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-26. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 26 Oct 2026, 03:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Kosovo over the last 7 days of the window, to 26 Oct 2026, 03:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-26

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
19 Oct, 05:00	502 MW	512 MW
19 Oct, 06:00	602 MW	613 MW
19 Oct, 07:00	715 MW	732 MW
19 Oct, 08:00	792 MW	826 MW
19 Oct, 09:00	808 MW	870 MW
19 Oct, 10:00	776 MW	848 MW
19 Oct, 11:00	731 MW	819 MW
19 Oct, 12:00	682 MW	776 MW
19 Oct, 13:00	675 MW	758 MW
19 Oct, 14:00	674 MW	765 MW
19 Oct, 15:00	702 MW	779 MW
19 Oct, 16:00	754 MW	805 MW
19 Oct, 17:00	815 MW	844 MW
19 Oct, 18:00	904 MW	933 MW
19 Oct, 19:00	895 MW	927 MW
19 Oct, 20:00	864 MW	898 MW
19 Oct, 21:00	848 MW	873 MW
19 Oct, 22:00	832 MW	879 MW
19 Oct, 23:00	771 MW	824 MW
20 Oct, 00:00	646 MW	700 MW
20 Oct, 01:00	544 MW	578 MW
20 Oct, 02:00	485 MW	511 MW
20 Oct, 03:00	460 MW	484 MW
20 Oct, 04:00	454 MW	477 MW
20 Oct, 05:00	479 MW	502 MW
20 Oct, 06:00	576 MW	597 MW
20 Oct, 07:00	688 MW	718 MW
20 Oct, 08:00	771 MW	818 MW
20 Oct, 09:00	786 MW	875 MW
20 Oct, 10:00	765 MW	864 MW
20 Oct, 11:00	714 MW	823 MW
20 Oct, 12:00	670 MW	764 MW
20 Oct, 13:00	673 MW	749 MW
20 Oct, 14:00	668 MW	744 MW
20 Oct, 15:00	691 MW	755 MW
20 Oct, 16:00	741 MW	801 MW
20 Oct, 17:00	793 MW	831 MW
20 Oct, 18:00	893 MW	921 MW
20 Oct, 19:00	892 MW	913 MW
20 Oct, 20:00	863 MW	886 MW
20 Oct, 21:00	841 MW	868 MW
20 Oct, 22:00	822 MW	874 MW
20 Oct, 23:00	770 MW	815 MW
21 Oct, 00:00	655 MW	659 MW
21 Oct, 01:00	544 MW	544 MW
21 Oct, 02:00	483 MW	485 MW
21 Oct, 03:00	461 MW	460 MW
21 Oct, 04:00	456 MW	453 MW
21 Oct, 05:00	480 MW	481 MW
21 Oct, 06:00	576 MW	578 MW
21 Oct, 07:00	681 MW	703 MW
21 Oct, 08:00	758 MW	785 MW
21 Oct, 09:00	784 MW	827 MW
21 Oct, 10:00	748 MW	810 MW
21 Oct, 11:00	721 MW	771 MW
21 Oct, 12:00	685 MW	738 MW
21 Oct, 13:00	718 MW	729 MW
21 Oct, 14:00	748 MW	734 MW
21 Oct, 15:00	786 MW	761 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	821 MW	795 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	869 MW	836 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	933 MW	910 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	904 MW	900 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	878 MW	871 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	856 MW	836 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	829 MW	825 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	769 MW	776 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	643 MW	652 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	534 MW	534 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	477 MW	475 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	452 MW	453 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	444 MW	446 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	466 MW	467 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	558 MW	561 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	662 MW	679 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	738 MW	772 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	759 MW	815 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	736 MW	812 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	693 MW	774 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	649 MW	727 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	652 MW	720 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	668 MW	722 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	698 MW	736 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	751 MW	785 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	806 MW	840 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	880 MW	907 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	861 MW	893 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	828 MW	859 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	811 MW	840 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	801 MW	822 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	720 MW	777 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	630 MW	664 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	525 MW	554 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	464 MW	489 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	448 MW	469 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	441 MW	460 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	461 MW	482 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	562 MW	573 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	671 MW	695 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	780 MW	796 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	831 MW	850 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	816 MW	851 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	778 MW	821 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	752 MW	784 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	731 MW	781 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	726 MW	778 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	731 MW	798 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	773 MW	822 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	829 MW	874 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	917 MW	934 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	900 MW	910 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	865 MW	886 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	847 MW	871 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	834 MW	868 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	790 MW	824 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	689 MW	671 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	589 MW	566 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	519 MW	498 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	489 MW	473 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	481 MW	464 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	493 MW	484 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	554 MW	548 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	615 MW	613 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	740 MW	741 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	829 MW	809 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	815 MW	820 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	776 MW	795 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	710 MW	754 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	678 MW	735 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	673 MW	730 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	700 MW	748 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	747 MW	794 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	834 MW	827 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	926 MW	894 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	902 MW	873 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	861 MW	852 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	838 MW	836 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	820 MW	804 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	789 MW	778 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	686 MW	681 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	580 MW	577 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	512 MW	529 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	478 MW	503 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	463 MW	477 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	464 MW	467 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	490 MW	484 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	510 MW	514 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	579 MW	571 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	667 MW	669 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	713 MW	749 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	712 MW	787 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	690 MW	774 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	662 MW	751 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	650 MW	731 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	663 MW	713 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	713 MW	708 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	815 MW	781 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	897 MW	847 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	886 MW	887 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	862 MW	866 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	851 MW	852 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	842 MW	846 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	822 MW	851 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	759 MW	799 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	644 MW	619 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	546 MW	511 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	473 MW	459 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	445 MW	441 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (628 of 628 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-26. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_xk_2026,
  title = {{Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-26. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/

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Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 26 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related