Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Cyprus was off by 5.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 652 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 49% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 246 MW (52.4%) too high at 8 Oct 2026, 10:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Asia/Nicosia).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Cyprus was off by 5.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 652 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 49% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 246 MW (52.4%) too high at 8 Oct 2026, 10:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Cyprus came 35 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 31 MW, against average demand of 588 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 21% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

652 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026

Average error5.4%

Bias-2.9%

Hours within 5%49%

Worst miss246 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-16 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 246 MW (52.4%) too high at 8 Oct 2026, 10:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 714 MW, reported 468 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Cyprus over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 16:00	676 MW	650 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	666 MW	619 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	680 MW	639 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	686 MW	642 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	645 MW	599 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	589 MW	547 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	533 MW	495 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	480 MW	447 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	440 MW	410 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	414 MW	388 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	399 MW	377 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	394 MW	372 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	397 MW	379 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	431 MW	414 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	510 MW	487 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	576 MW	549 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	646 MW	615 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	693 MW	646 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	713 MW	653 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	719 MW	656 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	668 MW	656 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	725 MW	647 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	668 MW	643 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	n/a	648 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	n/a	649 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	693 MW	618 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	647 MW	637 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	706 MW	638 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	660 MW	598 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	607 MW	547 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	554 MW	493 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	504 MW	444 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	465 MW	410 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	440 MW	389 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	424 MW	377 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	417 MW	372 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	421 MW	377 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	452 MW	412 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	530 MW	489 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	593 MW	548 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	663 MW	617 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	699 MW	646 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	724 MW	651 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	731 MW	657 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	736 MW	661 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	745 MW	655 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	741 MW	654 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	n/a	655 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	n/a	652 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	n/a	622 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	n/a	638 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	n/a	638 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	n/a	598 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	604 MW	547 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	554 MW	494 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	508 MW	445 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	470 MW	443 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	443 MW	418 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	426 MW	402 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	418 MW	394 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	419 MW	395 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	437 MW	410 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	478 MW	446 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	527 MW	497 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	605 MW	589 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	647 MW	637 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	661 MW	657 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	663 MW	658 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	656 MW	662 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	469 MW	659 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	658 MW	639 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	662 MW	620 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	653 MW	613 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	644 MW	596 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	661 MW	608 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	657 MW	607 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	618 MW	570 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	577 MW	534 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	539 MW	499 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	501 MW	463 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	466 MW	441 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	439 MW	418 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	422 MW	400 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	414 MW	392 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	n/a	390 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	408 MW	388 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	424 MW	391 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	452 MW	410 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	521 MW	438 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	562 MW	515 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	587 MW	615 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	601 MW	700 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	612 MW	740 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	620 MW	715 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	620 MW	636 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	614 MW	589 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	613 MW	581 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	611 MW	576 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	638 MW	562 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	650 MW	592 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	631 MW	596 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	603 MW	571 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	566 MW	537 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	518 MW	496 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	475 MW	463 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	443 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 01:00	420 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 02:00	407 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 03:00	403 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 04:00	412 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 05:00	451 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 06:00	518 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 07:00	600 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 08:00	661 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 09:00	696 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 10:00	722 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 11:00	714 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 12:00	721 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 13:00	699 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 14:00	688 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 15:00	701 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 16:00	696 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 17:00	722 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 18:00	661 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 19:00	700 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 20:00	656 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 21:00	604 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 22:00	543 MW	n/a
26 Oct, 23:00	490 MW	n/a
27 Oct, 00:00	451 MW	423 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	428 MW	403 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	417 MW	393 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	412 MW	391 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	422 MW	399 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	460 MW	435 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	530 MW	497 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	612 MW	589 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	673 MW	660 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	707 MW	689 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	717 MW	692 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	719 MW	693 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	725 MW	699 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	704 MW	686 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	705 MW	696 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	707 MW	680 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	690 MW	647 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	648 MW	674 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	646 MW	666 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	676 MW	642 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	633 MW	602 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	585 MW	556 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	536 MW	506 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	491 MW	463 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	457 MW	430 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	430 MW	409 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	418 MW	396 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	409 MW	391 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	414 MW	394 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	433 MW	414 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	457 MW	444 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	518 MW	521 MW
28 Oct, 08:00	577 MW	576 MW
28 Oct, 09:00	604 MW	593 MW
28 Oct, 10:00	608 MW	593 MW
28 Oct, 11:00	605 MW	597 MW
28 Oct, 12:00	620 MW	601 MW
28 Oct, 13:00	602 MW	595 MW
28 Oct, 14:00	597 MW	591 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (652 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_cy_2026,
  title = {{Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/

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Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related