Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Calabria was off by 12.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 34% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 398 MW (63.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Calabria was off by 12.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 34% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 398 MW (63.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Calabria came 43 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 79 MW, against average demand of 617 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 49% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026

Average error12.7%

Bias+1.3%

Hours within 5%34%

Worst miss398 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-4 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 398 MW (63.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,030 MW, reported 632 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Calabria over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:00	623 MW	745 MW
21 Oct, 15:00	693 MW	755 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	746 MW	768 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	691 MW	783 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	721 MW	810 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	771 MW	850 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	753 MW	780 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	698 MW	735 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	649 MW	665 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	570 MW	558 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	530 MW	558 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	520 MW	513 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	503 MW	483 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	489 MW	480 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	479 MW	500 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	506 MW	538 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	591 MW	630 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	706 MW	735 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	748 MW	775 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	727 MW	738 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	686 MW	705 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	613 MW	623 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	604 MW	545 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	590 MW	510 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	604 MW	533 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	624 MW	605 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	640 MW	723 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	678 MW	768 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	732 MW	790 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	783 MW	833 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	723 MW	800 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	675 MW	750 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	623 MW	690 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	538 MW	635 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	470 MW	530 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	441 MW	508 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	424 MW	498 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	418 MW	488 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	421 MW	493 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	454 MW	535 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	537 MW	628 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	624 MW	753 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	683 MW	765 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	672 MW	698 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	605 MW	635 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	568 MW	580 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	589 MW	535 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	567 MW	488 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	579 MW	503 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	628 MW	575 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	662 MW	648 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	653 MW	713 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	683 MW	745 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	739 MW	783 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	704 MW	780 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	643 MW	698 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	587 MW	630 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	545 MW	565 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	486 MW	500 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	439 MW	468 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	416 MW	448 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	403 MW	430 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	415 MW	423 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	435 MW	443 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	498 MW	478 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	539 MW	565 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	583 MW	590 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	602 MW	588 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	569 MW	560 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	537 MW	540 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	570 MW	535 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	601 MW	518 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	564 MW	528 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	549 MW	565 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	582 MW	600 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	614 MW	605 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	680 MW	648 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	757 MW	753 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	715 MW	693 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	645 MW	628 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	600 MW	570 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	540 MW	533 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	471 MW	440 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	441 MW	408 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	431 MW	415 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	396 MW	410 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	406 MW	370 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	436 MW	353 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	417 MW	358 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	427 MW	410 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	470 MW	443 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	493 MW	488 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	521 MW	500 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	486 MW	515 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	506 MW	500 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	560 MW	535 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	535 MW	493 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	520 MW	458 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	529 MW	470 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	554 MW	500 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	648 MW	575 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	694 MW	610 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	709 MW	608 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	665 MW	565 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	631 MW	513 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	529 MW	508 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	435 MW	480 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	383 MW	448 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	362 MW	425 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	352 MW	420 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	359 MW	420 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	358 MW	433 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	409 MW	490 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	523 MW	560 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	622 MW	655 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	632 MW	640 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	582 MW	570 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	546 MW	533 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	527 MW	528 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	533 MW	535 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	534 MW	540 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	556 MW	563 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	598 MW	628 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	633 MW	703 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	702 MW	718 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	756 MW	768 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	774 MW	758 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	711 MW	728 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	670 MW	695 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	583 MW	595 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	547 MW	508 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	454 MW	450 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	439 MW	425 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	425 MW	415 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	426 MW	420 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	435 MW	448 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	453 MW	510 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	493 MW	603 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	627 MW	665 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	582 MW	658 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	570 MW	623 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	575 MW	550 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	559 MW	520 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	550 MW	533 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	510 MW	525 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	563 MW	570 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	613 MW	648 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	692 MW	675 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	763 MW	703 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	765 MW	775 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	783 MW	768 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	745 MW	698 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	671 MW	653 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	600 MW	598 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	537 MW	520 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	479 MW	465 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	430 MW	423 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	432 MW	425 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	427 MW	428 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	457 MW	433 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	501 MW	468 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	546 MW	613 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	687 MW	648 MW
28 Oct, 08:00	659 MW	630 MW
28 Oct, 09:00	635 MW	578 MW
28 Oct, 10:00	624 MW	573 MW
28 Oct, 11:00	582 MW	563 MW
28 Oct, 12:00	581 MW	593 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_cala_2026,
  title = {{Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/

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Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related