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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Poland was off by 1.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,479 MW (12.5%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Warsaw).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Poland was off by 1.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,479 MW (12.5%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Poland came 6 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 302 MW, against average demand of 18,434 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 66% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error1.6%
Bias+0.8%
Hours within 5%96%
Worst miss2,479 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+162 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 2,479 MW (12.5%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 22,238 MW, reported 19,759 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Poland day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Poland over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 6,250 12,500 18,750 25,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Poland over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:0020,492 MW20,663 MW
21 Oct, 15:0021,157 MW20,988 MW
21 Oct, 16:0021,407 MW21,563 MW
21 Oct, 17:0021,433 MW21,513 MW
21 Oct, 18:0022,173 MW22,100 MW
21 Oct, 19:0022,174 MW22,188 MW
21 Oct, 20:0021,532 MW21,713 MW
21 Oct, 21:0020,026 MW20,200 MW
21 Oct, 22:0018,617 MW18,838 MW
21 Oct, 23:0017,236 MW17,575 MW
22 Oct, 00:0016,456 MW16,713 MW
22 Oct, 01:0016,035 MW16,125 MW
22 Oct, 02:0015,634 MW15,950 MW
22 Oct, 03:0015,668 MW15,988 MW
22 Oct, 04:0016,037 MW16,475 MW
22 Oct, 05:0017,077 MW17,825 MW
22 Oct, 06:0019,916 MW20,738 MW
22 Oct, 07:0021,452 MW22,338 MW
22 Oct, 08:0022,269 MW23,113 MW
22 Oct, 09:0022,583 MW23,413 MW
22 Oct, 10:0022,642 MW23,513 MW
22 Oct, 11:0022,963 MW23,775 MW
22 Oct, 12:0023,008 MW23,963 MW
22 Oct, 13:0022,801 MW23,563 MW
22 Oct, 14:0022,481 MW23,125 MW
22 Oct, 15:0022,481 MW23,200 MW
22 Oct, 16:0022,321 MW23,200 MW
22 Oct, 17:0022,528 MW23,200 MW
22 Oct, 18:0022,880 MW23,425 MW
22 Oct, 19:0022,746 MW23,350 MW
22 Oct, 20:0022,313 MW22,625 MW
22 Oct, 21:0020,586 MW21,000 MW
22 Oct, 22:0019,085 MW19,325 MW
22 Oct, 23:0017,740 MW17,975 MW
23 Oct, 00:0016,885 MW16,713 MW
23 Oct, 01:0016,314 MW16,125 MW
23 Oct, 02:0016,004 MW15,950 MW
23 Oct, 03:0016,004 MW15,975 MW
23 Oct, 04:0016,359 MW16,438 MW
23 Oct, 05:0017,543 MW17,563 MW
23 Oct, 06:0020,315 MW20,288 MW
23 Oct, 07:0021,581 MW21,638 MW
23 Oct, 08:0021,882 MW22,000 MW
23 Oct, 09:0021,497 MW21,813 MW
23 Oct, 10:0020,534 MW20,913 MW
23 Oct, 11:0020,135 MW20,700 MW
23 Oct, 12:0020,143 MW20,813 MW
23 Oct, 13:0020,374 MW20,825 MW
23 Oct, 14:0020,583 MW21,025 MW
23 Oct, 15:0021,378 MW21,338 MW
23 Oct, 16:0021,678 MW21,863 MW
23 Oct, 17:0021,523 MW21,888 MW
23 Oct, 18:0021,906 MW22,525 MW
23 Oct, 19:0022,062 MW22,513 MW
23 Oct, 20:0021,399 MW21,950 MW
23 Oct, 21:0019,754 MW20,350 MW
23 Oct, 22:0018,498 MW18,888 MW
23 Oct, 23:0017,195 MW17,588 MW
24 Oct, 00:0016,307 MW16,438 MW
24 Oct, 01:0015,627 MW15,788 MW
24 Oct, 02:0015,195 MW15,400 MW
24 Oct, 03:0015,103 MW15,350 MW
24 Oct, 04:0015,280 MW15,363 MW
24 Oct, 05:0015,660 MW15,625 MW
24 Oct, 06:0016,723 MW16,688 MW
24 Oct, 07:0017,447 MW17,638 MW
24 Oct, 08:0018,549 MW18,663 MW
24 Oct, 09:0019,342 MW19,000 MW
24 Oct, 10:0019,480 MW18,963 MW
24 Oct, 11:0019,843 MW18,738 MW
24 Oct, 12:0019,364 MW18,600 MW
24 Oct, 13:0018,952 MW18,600 MW
24 Oct, 14:0018,882 MW18,600 MW
24 Oct, 15:0018,698 MW18,713 MW
24 Oct, 16:0018,745 MW19,075 MW
24 Oct, 17:0018,969 MW19,238 MW
24 Oct, 18:0019,463 MW19,738 MW
24 Oct, 19:0019,417 MW19,550 MW
24 Oct, 20:0018,729 MW18,975 MW
24 Oct, 21:0017,737 MW17,900 MW
24 Oct, 22:0016,798 MW16,800 MW
24 Oct, 23:0015,663 MW15,638 MW
25 Oct, 00:0014,879 MW14,400 MW
25 Oct, 01:0014,216 MW13,813 MW
25 Oct, 02:0013,677 MW13,600 MW
25 Oct, 02:0013,407 MW13,600 MW
25 Oct, 03:0013,577 MW13,463 MW
25 Oct, 04:0013,681 MW13,588 MW
25 Oct, 05:0013,893 MW13,763 MW
25 Oct, 06:0014,140 MW14,088 MW
25 Oct, 07:0014,850 MW14,875 MW
25 Oct, 08:0016,070 MW15,825 MW
25 Oct, 09:0016,147 MW16,275 MW
25 Oct, 10:0016,295 MW16,300 MW
25 Oct, 11:0016,791 MW16,313 MW
25 Oct, 12:0017,200 MW16,538 MW
25 Oct, 13:0017,471 MW16,563 MW
25 Oct, 14:0017,454 MW16,575 MW
25 Oct, 15:0017,437 MW16,900 MW
25 Oct, 16:0017,769 MW17,713 MW
25 Oct, 17:0018,272 MW18,238 MW
25 Oct, 18:0018,484 MW18,338 MW
25 Oct, 19:0018,396 MW18,300 MW
25 Oct, 20:0017,888 MW18,025 MW
25 Oct, 21:0016,976 MW17,025 MW
25 Oct, 22:0016,042 MW16,113 MW
25 Oct, 23:0015,025 MW15,200 MW
26 Oct, 00:0014,412 MW14,350 MW
26 Oct, 01:0013,936 MW13,838 MW
26 Oct, 02:0013,952 MW13,750 MW
26 Oct, 03:0014,055 MW13,763 MW
26 Oct, 04:0014,604 MW14,263 MW
26 Oct, 05:0016,103 MW15,750 MW
26 Oct, 06:0019,085 MW18,863 MW
26 Oct, 07:0021,024 MW20,863 MW
26 Oct, 08:0021,818 MW22,138 MW
26 Oct, 09:0021,715 MW22,375 MW
26 Oct, 10:0021,272 MW22,088 MW
26 Oct, 11:0021,801 MW22,500 MW
26 Oct, 12:0021,759 MW22,650 MW
26 Oct, 13:0021,672 MW22,450 MW
26 Oct, 14:0021,833 MW22,175 MW
26 Oct, 15:0021,782 MW22,413 MW
26 Oct, 16:0022,082 MW22,650 MW
26 Oct, 17:0022,642 MW22,888 MW
26 Oct, 18:0022,691 MW22,750 MW
26 Oct, 19:0022,456 MW22,688 MW
26 Oct, 20:0021,805 MW21,988 MW
26 Oct, 21:0020,244 MW20,488 MW
26 Oct, 22:0018,805 MW18,788 MW
26 Oct, 23:0017,680 MW17,538 MW
27 Oct, 00:0016,948 MW16,875 MW
27 Oct, 01:0016,447 MW16,363 MW
27 Oct, 02:0016,369 MW16,200 MW
27 Oct, 03:0016,515 MW16,213 MW
27 Oct, 04:0016,918 MW16,650 MW
27 Oct, 05:0018,102 MW17,800 MW
27 Oct, 06:0020,508 MW20,513 MW
27 Oct, 07:0021,492 MW22,125 MW
27 Oct, 08:0021,705 MW22,500 MW
27 Oct, 09:0021,511 MW22,150 MW
27 Oct, 10:0020,756 MW21,475 MW
27 Oct, 11:0020,650 MW21,250 MW
27 Oct, 12:0020,848 MW21,213 MW
27 Oct, 13:0021,096 MW20,938 MW
27 Oct, 14:0021,601 MW21,088 MW
27 Oct, 15:0021,963 MW21,763 MW
27 Oct, 16:0021,976 MW22,450 MW
27 Oct, 17:0022,671 MW22,700 MW
27 Oct, 18:0022,658 MW22,538 MW
27 Oct, 19:0022,695 MW22,525 MW
27 Oct, 20:0022,054 MW21,950 MW
27 Oct, 21:0020,407 MW20,338 MW
27 Oct, 22:0018,901 MW18,850 MW
27 Oct, 23:0017,658 MW17,500 MW
28 Oct, 00:0016,830 MW16,925 MW
28 Oct, 01:0016,372 MW16,413 MW
28 Oct, 02:0016,095 MW16,350 MW
28 Oct, 03:0016,141 MW16,388 MW
28 Oct, 04:0016,683 MW16,875 MW
28 Oct, 05:0017,900 MW18,000 MW
28 Oct, 06:0020,193 MW20,800 MW
28 Oct, 07:0021,926 MW22,338 MW
28 Oct, 08:0022,809 MW22,975 MW
28 Oct, 09:0022,799 MW22,963 MW
28 Oct, 10:0022,514 MW22,700 MW
28 Oct, 11:0022,703 MW23,025 MW
28 Oct, 12:0022,831 MW23,213 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pl_2026,
  title = {{Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/}
}

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