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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy North was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,522 MW (13.5%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy North was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,522 MW (13.5%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy North came 13 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 412 MW, against average demand of 17,443 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.4%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%89%
Worst miss2,522 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+5 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 2,522 MW (13.5%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 21,215 MW, reported 18,693 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy North day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy North over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 6,250 12,500 18,750 25,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy North over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:0020,832 MW22,091 MW
21 Oct, 15:0021,111 MW22,158 MW
21 Oct, 16:0021,300 MW22,348 MW
21 Oct, 17:0021,113 MW22,294 MW
21 Oct, 18:0021,780 MW22,878 MW
21 Oct, 19:0022,297 MW23,323 MW
21 Oct, 20:0020,789 MW22,162 MW
21 Oct, 21:0019,131 MW20,293 MW
21 Oct, 22:0017,291 MW18,355 MW
21 Oct, 23:0016,034 MW16,979 MW
22 Oct, 00:0015,068 MW15,733 MW
22 Oct, 01:0014,353 MW15,060 MW
22 Oct, 02:0014,035 MW14,646 MW
22 Oct, 03:0013,876 MW14,392 MW
22 Oct, 04:0014,124 MW14,554 MW
22 Oct, 05:0015,061 MW15,475 MW
22 Oct, 06:0018,011 MW18,457 MW
22 Oct, 07:0021,161 MW21,449 MW
22 Oct, 08:0022,753 MW23,183 MW
22 Oct, 09:0022,547 MW23,054 MW
22 Oct, 10:0021,204 MW22,514 MW
22 Oct, 11:0020,117 MW21,932 MW
22 Oct, 12:0018,247 MW20,447 MW
22 Oct, 13:0018,380 MW20,632 MW
22 Oct, 14:0018,693 MW21,215 MW
22 Oct, 15:0019,198 MW21,423 MW
22 Oct, 16:0019,651 MW21,924 MW
22 Oct, 17:0020,133 MW21,782 MW
22 Oct, 18:0021,090 MW22,429 MW
22 Oct, 19:0021,543 MW22,447 MW
22 Oct, 20:0020,595 MW21,311 MW
22 Oct, 21:0019,061 MW19,778 MW
22 Oct, 22:0017,218 MW17,852 MW
22 Oct, 23:0016,139 MW16,512 MW
23 Oct, 00:0015,235 MW15,525 MW
23 Oct, 01:0014,590 MW14,834 MW
23 Oct, 02:0014,261 MW14,370 MW
23 Oct, 03:0014,183 MW14,220 MW
23 Oct, 04:0014,293 MW14,468 MW
23 Oct, 05:0015,140 MW15,484 MW
23 Oct, 06:0017,891 MW18,421 MW
23 Oct, 07:0020,811 MW21,460 MW
23 Oct, 08:0022,449 MW23,259 MW
23 Oct, 09:0022,596 MW23,383 MW
23 Oct, 10:0022,144 MW23,136 MW
23 Oct, 11:0021,673 MW22,456 MW
23 Oct, 12:0020,453 MW21,094 MW
23 Oct, 13:0021,071 MW21,251 MW
23 Oct, 14:0021,293 MW21,796 MW
23 Oct, 15:0021,327 MW22,036 MW
23 Oct, 16:0021,341 MW22,185 MW
23 Oct, 17:0021,089 MW21,777 MW
23 Oct, 18:0021,662 MW22,235 MW
23 Oct, 19:0021,862 MW22,225 MW
23 Oct, 20:0020,778 MW20,926 MW
23 Oct, 21:0019,024 MW19,286 MW
23 Oct, 22:0017,350 MW17,476 MW
23 Oct, 23:0016,033 MW16,194 MW
24 Oct, 00:0014,930 MW15,155 MW
24 Oct, 01:0014,268 MW14,422 MW
24 Oct, 02:0013,892 MW13,844 MW
24 Oct, 03:0013,661 MW13,673 MW
24 Oct, 04:0013,633 MW13,688 MW
24 Oct, 05:0013,901 MW13,863 MW
24 Oct, 06:0015,100 MW14,872 MW
24 Oct, 07:0016,381 MW16,340 MW
24 Oct, 08:0017,207 MW17,061 MW
24 Oct, 09:0017,159 MW17,206 MW
24 Oct, 10:0016,351 MW16,391 MW
24 Oct, 11:0015,194 MW15,300 MW
24 Oct, 12:0013,971 MW14,084 MW
24 Oct, 13:0013,359 MW12,989 MW
24 Oct, 14:0013,012 MW12,812 MW
24 Oct, 15:0013,340 MW13,346 MW
24 Oct, 16:0014,375 MW14,347 MW
24 Oct, 17:0015,788 MW15,677 MW
24 Oct, 18:0017,497 MW17,265 MW
24 Oct, 19:0018,274 MW18,062 MW
24 Oct, 20:0017,345 MW16,959 MW
24 Oct, 21:0016,232 MW15,786 MW
24 Oct, 22:0015,096 MW14,856 MW
24 Oct, 23:0014,225 MW13,992 MW
25 Oct, 00:0012,244 MW12,733 MW
25 Oct, 01:0011,701 MW12,063 MW
25 Oct, 02:0011,287 MW11,731 MW
25 Oct, 02:0011,038 MW11,506 MW
25 Oct, 03:0010,894 MW11,557 MW
25 Oct, 04:0011,014 MW11,546 MW
25 Oct, 05:0011,314 MW11,764 MW
25 Oct, 06:0011,904 MW12,296 MW
25 Oct, 07:0012,290 MW12,529 MW
25 Oct, 08:0013,165 MW12,874 MW
25 Oct, 09:0013,225 MW13,364 MW
25 Oct, 10:0012,978 MW13,431 MW
25 Oct, 11:0013,131 MW13,588 MW
25 Oct, 12:0013,128 MW13,370 MW
25 Oct, 13:0013,013 MW13,357 MW
25 Oct, 14:0013,211 MW13,344 MW
25 Oct, 15:0013,332 MW13,321 MW
25 Oct, 16:0013,969 MW13,823 MW
25 Oct, 17:0015,429 MW14,799 MW
25 Oct, 18:0016,674 MW16,192 MW
25 Oct, 19:0017,051 MW16,803 MW
25 Oct, 20:0016,120 MW16,319 MW
25 Oct, 21:0015,170 MW15,297 MW
25 Oct, 22:0013,892 MW14,167 MW
25 Oct, 23:0012,757 MW13,004 MW
26 Oct, 00:0012,845 MW12,093 MW
26 Oct, 01:0012,431 MW11,776 MW
26 Oct, 02:0012,137 MW11,726 MW
26 Oct, 03:0012,069 MW11,906 MW
26 Oct, 04:0012,460 MW12,822 MW
26 Oct, 05:0013,819 MW15,701 MW
26 Oct, 06:0017,237 MW19,606 MW
26 Oct, 07:0019,901 MW21,884 MW
26 Oct, 08:0021,078 MW22,216 MW
26 Oct, 09:0020,605 MW21,198 MW
26 Oct, 10:0019,805 MW20,162 MW
26 Oct, 11:0019,250 MW18,420 MW
26 Oct, 12:0018,090 MW18,210 MW
26 Oct, 13:0018,774 MW18,997 MW
26 Oct, 14:0019,819 MW19,644 MW
26 Oct, 15:0020,968 MW20,812 MW
26 Oct, 16:0022,032 MW21,543 MW
26 Oct, 17:0022,309 MW21,971 MW
26 Oct, 18:0022,511 MW22,059 MW
26 Oct, 19:0022,382 MW21,184 MW
26 Oct, 20:0021,252 MW19,697 MW
26 Oct, 21:0019,505 MW17,911 MW
26 Oct, 22:0017,342 MW16,382 MW
26 Oct, 23:0015,978 MW15,239 MW
27 Oct, 00:0014,923 MW14,569 MW
27 Oct, 01:0014,298 MW14,111 MW
27 Oct, 02:0014,040 MW13,849 MW
27 Oct, 03:0013,989 MW13,969 MW
27 Oct, 04:0014,216 MW14,561 MW
27 Oct, 05:0015,328 MW16,545 MW
27 Oct, 06:0018,706 MW20,094 MW
27 Oct, 07:0021,243 MW22,315 MW
27 Oct, 08:0022,341 MW22,652 MW
27 Oct, 09:0021,609 MW21,638 MW
27 Oct, 10:0020,572 MW20,679 MW
27 Oct, 11:0019,959 MW19,231 MW
27 Oct, 12:0018,627 MW18,940 MW
27 Oct, 13:0019,137 MW19,754 MW
27 Oct, 14:0020,269 MW20,613 MW
27 Oct, 15:0021,393 MW21,779 MW
27 Oct, 16:0022,088 MW22,373 MW
27 Oct, 17:0022,587 MW22,478 MW
27 Oct, 18:0022,824 MW22,423 MW
27 Oct, 19:0022,480 MW21,597 MW
27 Oct, 20:0021,359 MW20,143 MW
27 Oct, 21:0019,728 MW18,321 MW
27 Oct, 22:0017,687 MW16,687 MW
27 Oct, 23:0016,156 MW15,608 MW
28 Oct, 00:0015,039 MW15,066 MW
28 Oct, 01:0014,451 MW14,240 MW
28 Oct, 02:0014,111 MW13,987 MW
28 Oct, 03:0014,092 MW13,976 MW
28 Oct, 04:0014,284 MW14,583 MW
28 Oct, 05:0015,410 MW15,617 MW
28 Oct, 06:0018,824 MW18,510 MW
28 Oct, 07:0021,284 MW21,118 MW
28 Oct, 08:0022,752 MW22,194 MW
28 Oct, 09:0022,545 MW22,153 MW
28 Oct, 10:0021,928 MW21,567 MW
28 Oct, 11:0022,129 MW20,567 MW
28 Oct, 12:0020,872 MW19,568 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-nord/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-nord/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_nord_2026,
  title = {{Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-nord/}
}

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