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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Spain was off by 1.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,088 MW (8.3%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Madrid).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Spain was off by 1.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,088 MW (8.3%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Spain came 3 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 311 MW, against average demand of 25,822 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 54% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error1.2%
Bias+0.2%
Hours within 5%99%
Worst miss2,088 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+46 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 2,088 MW (8.3%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 27,384 MW, reported 25,296 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Spain day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Spain over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Spain over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:0027,013 MW27,677 MW
21 Oct, 15:0026,448 MW26,920 MW
21 Oct, 16:0026,575 MW27,088 MW
21 Oct, 17:0027,577 MW27,940 MW
21 Oct, 18:0028,465 MW28,584 MW
21 Oct, 19:0030,241 MW30,216 MW
21 Oct, 20:0032,056 MW31,825 MW
21 Oct, 21:0031,051 MW30,804 MW
21 Oct, 22:0028,143 MW27,839 MW
21 Oct, 23:0025,517 MW25,345 MW
22 Oct, 00:0023,782 MW23,732 MW
22 Oct, 01:0022,500 MW22,389 MW
22 Oct, 02:0021,646 MW21,586 MW
22 Oct, 03:0021,374 MW21,308 MW
22 Oct, 04:0021,314 MW21,278 MW
22 Oct, 05:0022,019 MW21,872 MW
22 Oct, 06:0024,711 MW24,530 MW
22 Oct, 07:0028,514 MW28,404 MW
22 Oct, 08:0030,627 MW30,439 MW
22 Oct, 09:0030,577 MW30,283 MW
22 Oct, 10:0030,165 MW29,684 MW
22 Oct, 11:0029,229 MW28,801 MW
22 Oct, 12:0028,601 MW28,345 MW
22 Oct, 13:0028,190 MW28,251 MW
22 Oct, 14:0027,843 MW27,885 MW
22 Oct, 15:0027,175 MW27,203 MW
22 Oct, 16:0027,454 MW27,291 MW
22 Oct, 17:0028,276 MW28,200 MW
22 Oct, 18:0029,224 MW28,811 MW
22 Oct, 19:0030,975 MW30,431 MW
22 Oct, 20:0032,462 MW31,950 MW
22 Oct, 21:0031,455 MW31,002 MW
22 Oct, 22:0028,519 MW28,049 MW
22 Oct, 23:0025,726 MW25,511 MW
23 Oct, 00:0023,908 MW24,096 MW
23 Oct, 01:0022,746 MW22,801 MW
23 Oct, 02:0021,904 MW21,967 MW
23 Oct, 03:0021,455 MW21,606 MW
23 Oct, 04:0021,337 MW21,505 MW
23 Oct, 05:0021,854 MW22,005 MW
23 Oct, 06:0024,589 MW24,570 MW
23 Oct, 07:0028,381 MW28,253 MW
23 Oct, 08:0030,304 MW30,247 MW
23 Oct, 09:0030,526 MW30,166 MW
23 Oct, 10:0029,881 MW29,789 MW
23 Oct, 11:0029,098 MW28,934 MW
23 Oct, 12:0028,587 MW28,263 MW
23 Oct, 13:0027,879 MW28,037 MW
23 Oct, 14:0026,996 MW27,516 MW
23 Oct, 15:0026,171 MW26,653 MW
23 Oct, 16:0026,338 MW26,745 MW
23 Oct, 17:0027,402 MW27,548 MW
23 Oct, 18:0028,064 MW28,294 MW
23 Oct, 19:0029,631 MW29,835 MW
23 Oct, 20:0030,750 MW31,011 MW
23 Oct, 21:0029,998 MW30,073 MW
23 Oct, 22:0027,627 MW27,360 MW
23 Oct, 23:0025,279 MW24,987 MW
24 Oct, 00:0023,649 MW23,568 MW
24 Oct, 01:0022,432 MW22,205 MW
24 Oct, 02:0021,351 MW21,175 MW
24 Oct, 03:0020,841 MW20,636 MW
24 Oct, 04:0020,506 MW20,328 MW
24 Oct, 05:0020,516 MW20,159 MW
24 Oct, 06:0021,317 MW20,913 MW
24 Oct, 07:0022,784 MW22,239 MW
24 Oct, 08:0024,139 MW23,657 MW
24 Oct, 09:0025,392 MW24,970 MW
24 Oct, 10:0025,902 MW25,683 MW
24 Oct, 11:0025,351 MW25,224 MW
24 Oct, 12:0024,699 MW24,652 MW
24 Oct, 13:0024,748 MW24,516 MW
24 Oct, 14:0024,281 MW24,135 MW
24 Oct, 15:0023,277 MW23,011 MW
24 Oct, 16:0023,008 MW22,736 MW
24 Oct, 17:0023,787 MW23,362 MW
24 Oct, 18:0024,515 MW24,207 MW
24 Oct, 19:0025,980 MW25,801 MW
24 Oct, 20:0027,112 MW27,170 MW
24 Oct, 21:0026,773 MW26,900 MW
24 Oct, 22:0025,065 MW25,088 MW
24 Oct, 23:0023,341 MW23,143 MW
25 Oct, 00:0021,654 MW21,563 MW
25 Oct, 01:0020,463 MW20,078 MW
25 Oct, 02:00n/a19,147 MW
25 Oct, 02:0018,954 MW19,004 MW
25 Oct, 03:0018,622 MW18,688 MW
25 Oct, 04:0018,566 MW18,469 MW
25 Oct, 05:0018,611 MW18,603 MW
25 Oct, 06:0019,227 MW19,226 MW
25 Oct, 07:0019,929 MW19,941 MW
25 Oct, 08:0020,934 MW21,004 MW
25 Oct, 09:0021,846 MW22,231 MW
25 Oct, 10:0021,744 MW22,602 MW
25 Oct, 11:0021,460 MW22,341 MW
25 Oct, 12:0021,342 MW22,053 MW
25 Oct, 13:0022,158 MW22,527 MW
25 Oct, 14:0022,260 MW22,289 MW
25 Oct, 15:0021,809 MW21,567 MW
25 Oct, 16:0022,329 MW21,656 MW
25 Oct, 17:0023,425 MW22,613 MW
25 Oct, 18:0025,553 MW24,490 MW
25 Oct, 19:0026,587 MW26,032 MW
25 Oct, 20:0027,198 MW26,650 MW
25 Oct, 21:0026,322 MW26,311 MW
25 Oct, 22:0024,543 MW24,899 MW
25 Oct, 23:0022,809 MW22,711 MW
26 Oct, 00:0021,442 MW21,195 MW
26 Oct, 01:0020,528 MW20,202 MW
26 Oct, 02:0019,887 MW19,585 MW
26 Oct, 03:0019,578 MW19,439 MW
26 Oct, 04:0019,799 MW19,630 MW
26 Oct, 05:0020,730 MW20,435 MW
26 Oct, 06:0023,917 MW23,465 MW
26 Oct, 07:0027,654 MW27,238 MW
26 Oct, 08:0029,185 MW28,808 MW
26 Oct, 09:0029,067 MW28,923 MW
26 Oct, 10:0028,191 MW28,495 MW
26 Oct, 11:0027,567 MW27,876 MW
26 Oct, 12:0027,620 MW27,684 MW
26 Oct, 13:0028,084 MW27,909 MW
26 Oct, 14:0028,140 MW27,646 MW
26 Oct, 15:0028,200 MW27,488 MW
26 Oct, 16:0028,935 MW27,959 MW
26 Oct, 17:0029,778 MW28,940 MW
26 Oct, 18:0030,948 MW30,676 MW
26 Oct, 19:0032,009 MW31,617 MW
26 Oct, 20:0032,370 MW31,963 MW
26 Oct, 21:0031,051 MW30,596 MW
26 Oct, 22:0027,716 MW27,460 MW
26 Oct, 23:0025,177 MW24,787 MW
27 Oct, 00:0023,504 MW23,588 MW
27 Oct, 01:0022,337 MW22,530 MW
27 Oct, 02:0021,629 MW21,802 MW
27 Oct, 03:0021,355 MW21,472 MW
27 Oct, 04:0021,298 MW21,560 MW
27 Oct, 05:0022,043 MW22,272 MW
27 Oct, 06:0024,889 MW24,994 MW
27 Oct, 07:0028,289 MW28,491 MW
27 Oct, 08:0029,505 MW29,795 MW
27 Oct, 09:0029,397 MW29,694 MW
27 Oct, 10:0028,936 MW29,133 MW
27 Oct, 11:0028,738 MW28,649 MW
27 Oct, 12:0028,948 MW28,575 MW
27 Oct, 13:0029,346 MW28,850 MW
27 Oct, 14:0029,341 MW28,612 MW
27 Oct, 15:0029,389 MW28,403 MW
27 Oct, 16:0029,504 MW28,749 MW
27 Oct, 17:0029,794 MW29,583 MW
27 Oct, 18:0030,859 MW30,984 MW
27 Oct, 19:0032,036 MW31,872 MW
27 Oct, 20:0032,488 MW32,183 MW
27 Oct, 21:0031,328 MW30,850 MW
27 Oct, 22:0027,970 MW27,774 MW
27 Oct, 23:0025,208 MW25,171 MW
28 Oct, 00:0023,432 MW23,645 MW
28 Oct, 01:0022,206 MW22,451 MW
28 Oct, 02:0021,499 MW21,676 MW
28 Oct, 03:0021,088 MW21,347 MW
28 Oct, 04:0021,116 MW21,338 MW
28 Oct, 05:0021,775 MW22,005 MW
28 Oct, 06:0024,776 MW24,696 MW
28 Oct, 07:0028,367 MW28,197 MW
28 Oct, 08:0029,546 MW29,436 MW
28 Oct, 09:0029,297 MW29,340 MW
28 Oct, 10:0028,352 MW28,822 MW
28 Oct, 11:0027,809 MW28,247 MW
28 Oct, 12:0027,871 MW28,233 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/es/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/es/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_es_2026,
  title = {{Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/es/}
}

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