North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 29 September to 27 October 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for North Macedonia was off by 8.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 626 hours from 29 September to 27 October 2026, and 46% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 374 MW (54.0%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Skopje).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for North Macedonia was off by 8.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 626 hours from 29 September to 27 October 2026, and 46% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 374 MW (54.0%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
- Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, North Macedonia came 38 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 47 MW, against average demand of 583 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 44% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
626 hours from 29 September to 27 October 2026Average error8.7%
Bias-2.7%
Hours within 5%46%
Worst miss374 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-18 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 374 MW (54.0%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 318 MW, reported 691 MW.
Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-27. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 27 Oct 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00)Data to 2026-10-27
Show the data table (168 rows)
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct, 01:00 | 593 MW | 574 MW |
| 21 Oct, 02:00 | 581 MW | 581 MW |
| 21 Oct, 03:00 | 552 MW | 550 MW |
| 21 Oct, 04:00 | 523 MW | 529 MW |
| 21 Oct, 05:00 | 548 MW | 543 MW |
| 21 Oct, 06:00 | 606 MW | 596 MW |
| 21 Oct, 07:00 | 629 MW | 632 MW |
| 21 Oct, 08:00 | 566 MW | 553 MW |
| 21 Oct, 09:00 | 408 MW | 439 MW |
| 21 Oct, 10:00 | 356 MW | 384 MW |
| 21 Oct, 11:00 | 321 MW | 328 MW |
| 21 Oct, 12:00 | 314 MW | 323 MW |
| 21 Oct, 13:00 | 421 MW | 428 MW |
| 21 Oct, 14:00 | 590 MW | 492 MW |
| 21 Oct, 15:00 | 642 MW | 554 MW |
| 21 Oct, 16:00 | 721 MW | 673 MW |
| 21 Oct, 17:00 | 785 MW | 761 MW |
| 21 Oct, 18:00 | 784 MW | 755 MW |
| 21 Oct, 19:00 | 783 MW | 755 MW |
| 21 Oct, 20:00 | 794 MW | 765 MW |
| 21 Oct, 21:00 | 774 MW | 774 MW |
| 21 Oct, 22:00 | 795 MW | 811 MW |
| 21 Oct, 23:00 | 750 MW | 759 MW |
| 22 Oct, 00:00 | 659 MW | 642 MW |
| 22 Oct, 01:00 | 582 MW | 559 MW |
| 22 Oct, 02:00 | 572 MW | 544 MW |
| 22 Oct, 03:00 | 532 MW | 507 MW |
| 22 Oct, 04:00 | 506 MW | 489 MW |
| 22 Oct, 05:00 | 519 MW | 539 MW |
| 22 Oct, 06:00 | 566 MW | 589 MW |
| 22 Oct, 07:00 | 603 MW | 635 MW |
| 22 Oct, 08:00 | 569 MW | 582 MW |
| 22 Oct, 09:00 | 495 MW | 427 MW |
| 22 Oct, 10:00 | 475 MW | 353 MW |
| 22 Oct, 11:00 | 420 MW | 304 MW |
| 22 Oct, 12:00 | 331 MW | 278 MW |
| 22 Oct, 13:00 | 412 MW | 374 MW |
| 22 Oct, 14:00 | 487 MW | 432 MW |
| 22 Oct, 15:00 | 510 MW | 519 MW |
| 22 Oct, 16:00 | 624 MW | 658 MW |
| 22 Oct, 17:00 | 724 MW | 797 MW |
| 22 Oct, 18:00 | 739 MW | 852 MW |
| 22 Oct, 19:00 | 724 MW | 846 MW |
| 22 Oct, 20:00 | 732 MW | 860 MW |
| 22 Oct, 21:00 | 716 MW | 880 MW |
| 22 Oct, 22:00 | 742 MW | 890 MW |
| 22 Oct, 23:00 | 720 MW | 842 MW |
| 23 Oct, 00:00 | 637 MW | 660 MW |
| 23 Oct, 01:00 | 568 MW | 557 MW |
| 23 Oct, 02:00 | 530 MW | 519 MW |
| 23 Oct, 03:00 | 486 MW | 470 MW |
| 23 Oct, 04:00 | 456 MW | 434 MW |
| 23 Oct, 05:00 | 466 MW | 450 MW |
| 23 Oct, 06:00 | 476 MW | 489 MW |
| 23 Oct, 07:00 | 456 MW | 473 MW |
| 23 Oct, 08:00 | 406 MW | 395 MW |
| 23 Oct, 09:00 | 365 MW | 285 MW |
| 23 Oct, 10:00 | 332 MW | 198 MW |
| 23 Oct, 11:00 | 279 MW | n/a |
| 23 Oct, 12:00 | 269 MW | n/a |
| 23 Oct, 13:00 | 345 MW | 185 MW |
| 23 Oct, 14:00 | 334 MW | 238 MW |
| 23 Oct, 15:00 | 345 MW | 331 MW |
| 23 Oct, 16:00 | 503 MW | 531 MW |
| 23 Oct, 17:00 | 680 MW | 708 MW |
| 23 Oct, 18:00 | 716 MW | 715 MW |
| 23 Oct, 19:00 | 704 MW | 702 MW |
| 23 Oct, 20:00 | 711 MW | 713 MW |
| 23 Oct, 21:00 | 705 MW | 723 MW |
| 23 Oct, 22:00 | 761 MW | 702 MW |
| 23 Oct, 23:00 | 735 MW | 664 MW |
| 24 Oct, 00:00 | 653 MW | 649 MW |
| 24 Oct, 01:00 | 580 MW | 574 MW |
| 24 Oct, 02:00 | 546 MW | 544 MW |
| 24 Oct, 03:00 | 512 MW | 509 MW |
| 24 Oct, 04:00 | 540 MW | 531 MW |
| 24 Oct, 05:00 | 564 MW | 573 MW |
| 24 Oct, 06:00 | 591 MW | 607 MW |
| 24 Oct, 07:00 | 568 MW | 601 MW |
| 24 Oct, 08:00 | 513 MW | 508 MW |
| 24 Oct, 09:00 | 438 MW | 407 MW |
| 24 Oct, 10:00 | 345 MW | 365 MW |
| 24 Oct, 11:00 | 251 MW | 322 MW |
| 24 Oct, 12:00 | 167 MW | 288 MW |
| 24 Oct, 13:00 | 215 MW | 397 MW |
| 24 Oct, 14:00 | 287 MW | 471 MW |
| 24 Oct, 15:00 | 398 MW | 548 MW |
| 24 Oct, 16:00 | 567 MW | 662 MW |
| 24 Oct, 17:00 | 719 MW | 782 MW |
| 24 Oct, 18:00 | 738 MW | 774 MW |
| 24 Oct, 19:00 | 736 MW | 765 MW |
| 24 Oct, 20:00 | 744 MW | 759 MW |
| 24 Oct, 21:00 | 726 MW | 747 MW |
| 24 Oct, 22:00 | 752 MW | 772 MW |
| 24 Oct, 23:00 | 731 MW | 735 MW |
| 25 Oct, 00:00 | 656 MW | 622 MW |
| 25 Oct, 01:00 | 576 MW | 564 MW |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 | 525 MW | 488 MW |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 | 497 MW | 488 MW |
| 25 Oct, 03:00 | 537 MW | 512 MW |
| 25 Oct, 04:00 | 533 MW | 530 MW |
| 25 Oct, 05:00 | 552 MW | 556 MW |
| 25 Oct, 06:00 | 554 MW | 574 MW |
| 25 Oct, 07:00 | 565 MW | 584 MW |
| 25 Oct, 08:00 | 630 MW | 600 MW |
| 25 Oct, 09:00 | 678 MW | 617 MW |
| 25 Oct, 10:00 | 613 MW | 633 MW |
| 25 Oct, 11:00 | 580 MW | 584 MW |
| 25 Oct, 12:00 | 614 MW | 578 MW |
| 25 Oct, 13:00 | 727 MW | 619 MW |
| 25 Oct, 14:00 | 800 MW | 697 MW |
| 25 Oct, 15:00 | 804 MW | 766 MW |
| 25 Oct, 16:00 | 858 MW | 786 MW |
| 25 Oct, 17:00 | 895 MW | 829 MW |
| 25 Oct, 18:00 | 833 MW | 892 MW |
| 25 Oct, 19:00 | 828 MW | 878 MW |
| 25 Oct, 20:00 | 822 MW | 875 MW |
| 25 Oct, 21:00 | 796 MW | 819 MW |
| 25 Oct, 22:00 | 765 MW | 822 MW |
| 25 Oct, 23:00 | 680 MW | 753 MW |
| 26 Oct, 00:00 | 612 MW | 675 MW |
| 26 Oct, 01:00 | 544 MW | 596 MW |
| 26 Oct, 02:00 | 539 MW | 582 MW |
| 26 Oct, 03:00 | 528 MW | 546 MW |
| 26 Oct, 04:00 | 501 MW | 531 MW |
| 26 Oct, 05:00 | 531 MW | 554 MW |
| 26 Oct, 06:00 | 571 MW | 636 MW |
| 26 Oct, 07:00 | 571 MW | 633 MW |
| 26 Oct, 08:00 | 603 MW | 614 MW |
| 26 Oct, 09:00 | 720 MW | 581 MW |
| 26 Oct, 10:00 | 772 MW | 559 MW |
| 26 Oct, 11:00 | 746 MW | 552 MW |
| 26 Oct, 12:00 | 765 MW | 561 MW |
| 26 Oct, 13:00 | 873 MW | 680 MW |
| 26 Oct, 14:00 | 878 MW | 725 MW |
| 26 Oct, 15:00 | 814 MW | 694 MW |
| 26 Oct, 16:00 | 871 MW | 820 MW |
| 26 Oct, 17:00 | 902 MW | 870 MW |
| 26 Oct, 18:00 | 846 MW | 811 MW |
| 26 Oct, 19:00 | 841 MW | 791 MW |
| 26 Oct, 20:00 | 826 MW | 801 MW |
| 26 Oct, 21:00 | 812 MW | 794 MW |
| 26 Oct, 22:00 | 835 MW | 839 MW |
| 26 Oct, 23:00 | 785 MW | 786 MW |
| 27 Oct, 00:00 | 684 MW | 652 MW |
| 27 Oct, 01:00 | 600 MW | 562 MW |
| 27 Oct, 02:00 | 584 MW | 553 MW |
| 27 Oct, 03:00 | 560 MW | 521 MW |
| 27 Oct, 04:00 | 546 MW | 500 MW |
| 27 Oct, 05:00 | 586 MW | 546 MW |
| 27 Oct, 06:00 | 578 MW | 555 MW |
| 27 Oct, 07:00 | 556 MW | 508 MW |
| 27 Oct, 08:00 | 524 MW | 399 MW |
| 27 Oct, 09:00 | 487 MW | 366 MW |
| 27 Oct, 10:00 | 497 MW | 354 MW |
| 27 Oct, 11:00 | 494 MW | 362 MW |
| 27 Oct, 12:00 | 558 MW | 405 MW |
| 27 Oct, 13:00 | 723 MW | 536 MW |
| 27 Oct, 14:00 | 826 MW | 674 MW |
| 27 Oct, 15:00 | 855 MW | 733 MW |
| 27 Oct, 16:00 | 930 MW | 882 MW |
| 27 Oct, 17:00 | 935 MW | 838 MW |
| 27 Oct, 18:00 | 905 MW | 854 MW |
| 27 Oct, 19:00 | 900 MW | 850 MW |
| 27 Oct, 20:00 | 895 MW | 838 MW |
| 27 Oct, 21:00 | 877 MW | 831 MW |
| 27 Oct, 22:00 | 889 MW | 857 MW |
| 27 Oct, 23:00 | 838 MW | 807 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (626 of 696 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Related
Cite this page
APA 7
World Power Monitor. (2026). North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/
Plain text
World Power Monitor. North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-27. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/
BibTeX
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_mk_2026,
title = {{North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
author = {{World Power Monitor}},
year = {2026},
note = {Data as of 2026-10-27. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/}
} Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/
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