Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Latvia was off by 5.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 51% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,049 MW (49.8%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Riga).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Latvia was off by 5.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 51% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,049 MW (49.8%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Latvia came 36 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 51 MW, against average demand of 868 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 64% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026

Average error5.8%

Bias+2.5%

Hours within 5%51%

Worst miss1,049 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+17 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,049 MW (49.8%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,055 MW, reported 2,104 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Latvia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 16:00	964 MW	974 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	832 MW	957 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	858 MW	989 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	935 MW	1,000 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	956 MW	995 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	890 MW	953 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	849 MW	917 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	797 MW	861 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	723 MW	789 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	741 MW	775 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	690 MW	752 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	720 MW	765 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	803 MW	871 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	839 MW	913 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	821 MW	903 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	916 MW	995 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	976 MW	1,082 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	992 MW	1,107 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	1,116 MW	1,155 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	1,198 MW	1,189 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	1,152 MW	1,100 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	1,149 MW	1,122 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	1,109 MW	1,080 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	1,084 MW	1,042 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	976 MW	978 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	926 MW	983 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	951 MW	1,001 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	962 MW	1,003 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	964 MW	993 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	955 MW	973 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	882 MW	903 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	820 MW	836 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	769 MW	782 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	639 MW	678 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	662 MW	696 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	728 MW	752 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	723 MW	757 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	669 MW	711 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	744 MW	815 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	844 MW	920 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	923 MW	1,003 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	936 MW	1,044 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	963 MW	1,025 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	1,054 MW	995 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	1,013 MW	974 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	1,114 MW	1,078 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	1,111 MW	1,079 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	1,052 MW	980 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	1,021 MW	971 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	912 MW	945 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	982 MW	975 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	983 MW	994 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	958 MW	970 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	879 MW	918 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	826 MW	851 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	754 MW	779 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	734 MW	765 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	721 MW	762 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	699 MW	742 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	710 MW	727 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	724 MW	722 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	798 MW	800 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	803 MW	832 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	789 MW	820 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	800 MW	867 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	918 MW	909 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	971 MW	928 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	944 MW	935 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	931 MW	918 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	941 MW	909 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	959 MW	893 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	907 MW	890 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	883 MW	904 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	864 MW	936 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	871 MW	973 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	868 MW	989 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	910 MW	960 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	873 MW	923 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	818 MW	889 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	754 MW	834 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	736 MW	799 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	705 MW	762 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	679 MW	745 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	657 MW	699 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	686 MW	710 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	672 MW	735 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	688 MW	755 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	745 MW	822 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	729 MW	807 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	812 MW	868 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	876 MW	926 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	861 MW	961 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	885 MW	961 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	893 MW	948 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	929 MW	951 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	874 MW	955 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	889 MW	949 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	844 MW	969 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	927 MW	1,001 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	958 MW	1,055 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	915 MW	1,070 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	901 MW	1,023 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	855 MW	959 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	776 MW	903 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	727 MW	849 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	685 MW	792 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	716 MW	881 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	701 MW	856 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	646 MW	757 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	676 MW	754 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	702 MW	785 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	795 MW	909 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	914 MW	1,038 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	1,008 MW	1,135 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	1,044 MW	1,163 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	1,055 MW	1,161 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	1,039 MW	1,162 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	1,015 MW	1,157 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	1,058 MW	1,177 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	1,090 MW	1,166 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	1,029 MW	1,145 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	1,036 MW	1,100 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	1,060 MW	1,119 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	1,041 MW	1,131 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	1,026 MW	1,152 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	1,029 MW	1,133 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	919 MW	1,079 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	852 MW	1,010 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	829 MW	945 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	709 MW	889 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	731 MW	782 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	771 MW	864 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	749 MW	857 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	717 MW	775 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	702 MW	821 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	726 MW	886 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	789 MW	967 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	1,000 MW	1,072 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	1,062 MW	1,105 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	1,079 MW	1,157 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	1,169 MW	1,249 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	1,073 MW	1,226 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	1,059 MW	1,217 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	1,030 MW	1,162 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	992 MW	1,042 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	941 MW	1,023 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	1,064 MW	1,083 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	1,054 MW	1,102 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	1,024 MW	1,085 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	989 MW	1,068 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	944 MW	1,049 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	890 MW	982 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	784 MW	931 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	704 MW	872 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	734 MW	831 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	706 MW	821 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	631 MW	710 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	602 MW	685 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	678 MW	758 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	780 MW	841 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	845 MW	929 MW
28 Oct, 08:00	985 MW	1,015 MW
28 Oct, 09:00	1,091 MW	1,056 MW
28 Oct, 10:00	1,104 MW	1,065 MW
28 Oct, 11:00	1,179 MW	1,099 MW
28 Oct, 12:00	1,145 MW	1,071 MW
28 Oct, 13:00	1,168 MW	1,071 MW
28 Oct, 14:00	1,078 MW	1,065 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_lv_2026,
  title = {{Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lv/

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Latvia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related