Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Estonia was off by 13.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 31% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +9.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 576 MW (99.1%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 14:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Tallinn).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Estonia was off by 13.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 31% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +9.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 576 MW (99.1%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 14:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Estonia came 44 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 103 MW, against average demand of 863 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 70% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026

Average error13.2%

Bias+9.4%

Hours within 5%31%

Worst miss576 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+67 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 576 MW (99.1%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 14:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,157 MW, reported 581 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Estonia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 16:00	801 MW	1,004 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	920 MW	993 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	1,041 MW	1,024 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	1,052 MW	1,060 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	1,037 MW	1,038 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	970 MW	1,024 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	917 MW	971 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	873 MW	943 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	821 MW	904 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	790 MW	867 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	822 MW	815 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	769 MW	837 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	874 MW	872 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	838 MW	894 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	928 MW	973 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	1,030 MW	1,050 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	1,072 MW	1,115 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	981 MW	1,122 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	848 MW	1,110 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	790 MW	1,153 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	774 MW	1,100 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	771 MW	1,121 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	739 MW	1,114 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	692 MW	1,073 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	742 MW	1,077 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	1,010 MW	1,040 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	1,067 MW	1,024 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	1,035 MW	1,035 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	1,044 MW	1,042 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	1,015 MW	996 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	908 MW	954 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	832 MW	910 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	742 MW	885 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	849 MW	833 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	838 MW	912 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	769 MW	842 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	798 MW	891 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	810 MW	885 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	903 MW	963 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	971 MW	1,072 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	1,007 MW	1,128 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	937 MW	1,123 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	859 MW	1,103 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	928 MW	1,090 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	924 MW	1,099 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	838 MW	1,133 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	900 MW	1,113 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	1,026 MW	1,019 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	1,090 MW	1,051 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	1,077 MW	1,060 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	1,021 MW	1,063 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	978 MW	1,022 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	1,062 MW	1,033 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	986 MW	989 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	899 MW	945 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	803 MW	890 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	739 MW	844 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	743 MW	790 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	774 MW	794 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	688 MW	776 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	733 MW	762 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	851 MW	744 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	838 MW	767 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	932 MW	813 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	871 MW	803 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	825 MW	853 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	766 MW	859 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	724 MW	896 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	737 MW	962 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	855 MW	948 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	976 MW	907 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	880 MW	903 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	856 MW	920 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	842 MW	901 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	988 MW	933 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	991 MW	936 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	950 MW	909 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	915 MW	891 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	855 MW	845 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	787 MW	842 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	787 MW	843 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	754 MW	823 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	725 MW	807 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	773 MW	770 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	722 MW	781 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	697 MW	762 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	689 MW	816 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	738 MW	841 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	751 MW	870 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	846 MW	940 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	818 MW	924 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	937 MW	885 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	956 MW	849 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	818 MW	890 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	686 MW	924 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	701 MW	859 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	903 MW	869 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	939 MW	873 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	1,017 MW	873 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	1,025 MW	906 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	961 MW	899 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	892 MW	863 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	858 MW	818 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	792 MW	787 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	754 MW	762 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	732 MW	819 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	685 MW	832 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	674 MW	800 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	676 MW	870 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	765 MW	865 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	756 MW	961 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	841 MW	1,000 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	901 MW	1,052 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	968 MW	1,047 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	1,001 MW	1,033 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	1,043 MW	1,025 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	1,035 MW	1,041 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	1,053 MW	1,028 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	1,057 MW	1,034 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	1,096 MW	1,009 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	1,037 MW	1,028 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	1,031 MW	1,015 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	1,104 MW	1,034 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	1,141 MW	1,034 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	1,186 MW	1,030 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	1,180 MW	968 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	1,098 MW	896 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	1,011 MW	850 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	885 MW	796 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	823 MW	799 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	908 MW	770 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	832 MW	766 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	835 MW	749 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	781 MW	758 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	793 MW	798 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	863 MW	943 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	915 MW	1,076 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	998 MW	1,073 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	977 MW	1,103 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	939 MW	1,100 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	957 MW	1,203 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	952 MW	1,174 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	1,007 MW	1,127 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	885 MW	1,113 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	935 MW	1,103 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	980 MW	1,111 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	1,089 MW	1,144 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	1,156 MW	1,153 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	1,120 MW	1,139 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	1,151 MW	1,108 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	1,099 MW	1,027 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	1,005 MW	949 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	913 MW	873 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	891 MW	879 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	840 MW	900 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	821 MW	880 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	829 MW	899 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	799 MW	852 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	864 MW	878 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	858 MW	953 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	832 MW	1,015 MW
28 Oct, 08:00	879 MW	1,080 MW
28 Oct, 09:00	890 MW	1,104 MW
28 Oct, 10:00	979 MW	1,103 MW
28 Oct, 11:00	1,004 MW	1,150 MW
28 Oct, 12:00	940 MW	1,216 MW
28 Oct, 13:00	917 MW	1,224 MW
28 Oct, 14:00	923 MW	1,086 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ee_2026,
  title = {{Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ee/

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Estonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related