Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 29 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Albania was off by 2.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 29 September to 28 October 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 167 MW (18.9%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Tirane).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Albania was off by 2.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 29 September to 28 October 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 167 MW (18.9%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Albania came 22 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 25 MW, against average demand of 823 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 34% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 29 September to 28 October 2026

Average error2.9%

Bias-1.0%

Hours within 5%84%

Worst miss167 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-9 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 167 MW (18.9%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,049 MW, reported 882 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Albania over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 15:00	993 MW	950 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	1,005 MW	954 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	1,094 MW	1,017 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	1,202 MW	1,134 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	1,199 MW	1,148 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	1,145 MW	1,097 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	1,038 MW	1,006 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	904 MW	882 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	756 MW	741 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	646 MW	660 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	598 MW	598 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	560 MW	580 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	555 MW	587 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	567 MW	596 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	596 MW	620 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	744 MW	774 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	923 MW	974 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	971 MW	1,024 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	940 MW	1,056 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	882 MW	1,049 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	878 MW	1,023 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	865 MW	988 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	855 MW	976 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	863 MW	982 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	862 MW	928 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	897 MW	945 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	988 MW	1,027 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	1,121 MW	1,139 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	1,132 MW	1,159 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	1,090 MW	1,108 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	1,001 MW	1,014 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	885 MW	894 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	752 MW	761 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	651 MW	639 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	594 MW	576 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	562 MW	550 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	558 MW	570 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	557 MW	586 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	613 MW	618 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	761 MW	753 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	950 MW	945 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	980 MW	981 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	909 MW	931 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	842 MW	859 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	807 MW	809 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	782 MW	854 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	793 MW	903 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	815 MW	852 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	840 MW	870 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	900 MW	914 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	991 MW	1,016 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	1,120 MW	1,153 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	1,127 MW	1,173 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	1,076 MW	1,128 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	997 MW	1,033 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	874 MW	895 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	752 MW	750 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	666 MW	653 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	610 MW	600 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	581 MW	567 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	570 MW	563 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	579 MW	567 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	628 MW	616 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	734 MW	718 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	888 MW	866 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	993 MW	946 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	990 MW	939 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	922 MW	909 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	872 MW	892 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	849 MW	892 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	855 MW	894 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	852 MW	903 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	877 MW	892 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	917 MW	897 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	999 MW	974 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	1,127 MW	1,091 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	1,129 MW	1,126 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	1,074 MW	1,066 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	987 MW	979 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	861 MW	866 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	744 MW	738 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	n/a	636 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	n/a	574 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	n/a	544 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	n/a	544 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	n/a	533 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	n/a	555 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	n/a	615 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	n/a	738 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	n/a	857 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	n/a	945 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	n/a	977 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	n/a	920 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	n/a	896 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	n/a	921 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	n/a	917 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	n/a	888 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	n/a	896 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	n/a	991 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	n/a	1,129 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	n/a	1,121 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	n/a	1,080 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	n/a	1,021 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	n/a	911 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	n/a	789 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	n/a	667 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	634 MW	624 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	581 MW	572 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	563 MW	541 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	556 MW	540 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	573 MW	544 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	649 MW	618 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	829 MW	802 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	1,003 MW	956 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	1,005 MW	965 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	929 MW	923 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	913 MW	877 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	906 MW	861 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	887 MW	857 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	900 MW	891 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	933 MW	929 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	984 MW	968 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	1,059 MW	1,022 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	1,202 MW	1,149 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	1,212 MW	1,140 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	1,181 MW	1,101 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	1,130 MW	1,052 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	1,026 MW	944 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	880 MW	820 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	731 MW	679 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	641 MW	620 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	599 MW	572 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	577 MW	547 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	569 MW	547 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	587 MW	563 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	670 MW	645 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	853 MW	835 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	1,001 MW	1,006 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	975 MW	1,004 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	893 MW	948 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	834 MW	899 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	818 MW	880 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	827 MW	856 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	885 MW	900 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	949 MW	941 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	1,013 MW	981 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	1,102 MW	1,047 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	1,293 MW	1,199 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	1,303 MW	1,218 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	1,289 MW	1,186 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	1,235 MW	1,128 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	1,113 MW	1,020 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	948 MW	876 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	789 MW	748 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	678 MW	641 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	615 MW	588 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	596 MW	584 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	594 MW	579 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	604 MW	579 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	688 MW	653 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	878 MW	848 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	1,043 MW	1,008 MW
28 Oct, 08:00	1,028 MW	1,000 MW
28 Oct, 09:00	964 MW	911 MW
28 Oct, 10:00	906 MW	870 MW
28 Oct, 11:00	870 MW	859 MW
28 Oct, 12:00	864 MW	856 MW
28 Oct, 13:00	903 MW	885 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 710 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_al_2026,
  title = {{Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/al/

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Albania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 29 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related