Netherlands Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Netherlands was off by 18.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 15% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +17.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 7,237 MW (195.4%) too high at 4 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Amsterdam).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Netherlands was off by 18.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 15% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +17.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 7,237 MW (195.4%) too high at 4 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Netherlands came 46 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,576 MW, against average demand of 9,852 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 93% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026

Average error18.8%

Bias+17.6%

Hours within 5%15%

Worst miss7,237 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1,437 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 7,237 MW (195.4%) too high at 4 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 10,941 MW, reported 3,704 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Netherlands over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:00	9,734 MW	9,627 MW
21 Oct, 15:00	10,708 MW	10,309 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	11,090 MW	11,420 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	11,427 MW	12,750 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	11,288 MW	13,311 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	10,943 MW	13,466 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	10,699 MW	13,139 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	10,438 MW	12,646 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	10,387 MW	11,968 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	10,259 MW	11,390 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	9,895 MW	11,284 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	9,470 MW	10,963 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	9,342 MW	10,864 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	9,294 MW	10,765 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	9,505 MW	10,642 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	9,612 MW	10,829 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	9,688 MW	11,321 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	10,661 MW	12,061 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	11,490 MW	12,634 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	11,790 MW	12,396 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	11,736 MW	11,421 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	11,158 MW	10,304 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	10,900 MW	9,765 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	10,391 MW	9,720 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	9,379 MW	9,775 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	9,087 MW	10,136 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	9,961 MW	11,167 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	11,178 MW	12,607 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	12,058 MW	13,251 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	12,119 MW	13,259 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	12,182 MW	13,028 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	11,775 MW	12,530 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	11,247 MW	12,145 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	10,864 MW	11,681 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	10,765 MW	11,538 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	10,511 MW	11,235 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	10,210 MW	11,011 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	10,068 MW	10,766 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	9,855 MW	10,629 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	9,741 MW	10,760 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	9,875 MW	11,102 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	10,526 MW	12,124 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	11,267 MW	12,813 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	11,825 MW	13,189 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	11,553 MW	13,213 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	10,569 MW	12,918 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	10,214 MW	12,766 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	10,621 MW	12,913 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	11,250 MW	13,010 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	11,881 MW	13,355 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	12,271 MW	13,511 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	13,208 MW	13,651 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	12,812 MW	13,202 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	11,823 MW	12,872 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	11,046 MW	12,338 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	11,331 MW	11,871 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	11,243 MW	11,786 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	11,141 MW	11,778 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	10,484 MW	11,602 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	9,898 MW	11,179 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	9,763 MW	10,892 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	9,697 MW	10,619 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	9,414 MW	10,549 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	9,153 MW	10,494 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	9,392 MW	10,671 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	9,944 MW	11,007 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	10,539 MW	11,170 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	10,417 MW	10,649 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	9,777 MW	9,579 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	8,585 MW	8,828 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	7,405 MW	8,770 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	6,641 MW	8,596 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	6,617 MW	8,773 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	7,722 MW	8,799 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	9,631 MW	9,294 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	11,067 MW	10,694 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	10,905 MW	11,641 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	10,615 MW	11,541 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	10,820 MW	11,455 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	10,708 MW	11,225 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	10,016 MW	11,097 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	9,847 MW	10,817 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	9,645 MW	11,553 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	9,341 MW	11,052 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	9,220 MW	10,736 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	9,590 MW	10,736 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	9,378 MW	10,702 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	9,416 MW	10,812 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	9,437 MW	10,797 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	9,643 MW	10,982 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	9,694 MW	11,257 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	9,500 MW	11,451 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	9,054 MW	11,612 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	8,257 MW	12,044 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	8,202 MW	12,471 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	8,716 MW	12,846 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	9,497 MW	13,070 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	9,773 MW	12,765 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	9,963 MW	12,328 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	10,589 MW	12,282 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	11,202 MW	12,884 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	10,355 MW	13,195 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	10,273 MW	13,176 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	10,434 MW	12,866 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	9,982 MW	12,398 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	9,602 MW	11,992 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	9,627 MW	11,546 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	9,492 MW	10,218 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	9,499 MW	10,217 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	9,458 MW	10,106 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	9,526 MW	10,167 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	9,390 MW	10,436 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	10,016 MW	11,048 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	10,281 MW	12,058 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	10,348 MW	12,701 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	10,994 MW	12,299 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	10,796 MW	11,333 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	10,879 MW	10,579 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	10,419 MW	10,063 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	10,546 MW	9,944 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	10,825 MW	9,835 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	11,119 MW	10,115 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	11,142 MW	10,739 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	12,164 MW	12,099 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	12,164 MW	12,872 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	12,013 MW	13,068 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	11,543 MW	12,890 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	11,215 MW	12,287 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	11,358 MW	11,712 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	11,254 MW	10,987 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	10,864 MW	10,405 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	10,268 MW	10,412 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	9,809 MW	10,282 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	9,708 MW	10,188 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	9,785 MW	10,158 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	9,695 MW	10,345 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	9,772 MW	11,000 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	10,180 MW	11,942 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	11,103 MW	12,639 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	11,444 MW	12,626 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	11,265 MW	11,952 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	10,558 MW	11,189 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	10,165 MW	10,798 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	10,317 MW	10,681 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	10,997 MW	10,618 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	11,755 MW	10,988 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	11,576 MW	12,131 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	12,165 MW	12,956 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	12,712 MW	13,340 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	12,419 MW	13,269 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	12,348 MW	12,865 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	12,137 MW	12,535 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	11,831 MW	12,236 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	11,586 MW	12,014 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	11,017 MW	10,666 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	10,622 MW	11,366 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	10,333 MW	11,244 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	10,130 MW	11,143 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	10,119 MW	10,825 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	10,174 MW	10,800 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	10,175 MW	11,259 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	10,385 MW	12,138 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	11,308 MW	12,700 MW
28 Oct, 08:00	11,253 MW	12,575 MW
28 Oct, 09:00	9,766 MW	11,505 MW
28 Oct, 10:00	8,566 MW	10,153 MW
28 Oct, 11:00	7,515 MW	10,129 MW
28 Oct, 12:00	7,278 MW	10,450 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Netherlands Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nl/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Netherlands Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nl/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_nl_2026,
  title = {{Netherlands Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nl/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nl/

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Netherlands Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related