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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for IPCO was off by 4.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 65% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 280 MW (15.2%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for IPCO was off by 4.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 65% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 280 MW (15.2%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, IPCO came 29 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 78 MW, against average demand of 1,854 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 64% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

695 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error4.2%
Bias+1.3%
Hours within 5%65%
Worst miss280 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+18 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 280 MW (15.2%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 2,121 MW, reported 1,841 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
IPCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for IPCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 21 Oct, 05:0022 Oct, 05:0023 Oct, 05:0024 Oct, 05:0025 Oct, 05:0026 Oct, 05:0027 Oct, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for IPCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:001,750 MW1,855 MW
21 Oct, 06:001,875 MW1,958 MW
21 Oct, 07:001,891 MW1,963 MW
21 Oct, 08:001,862 MW1,935 MW
21 Oct, 09:001,926 MW1,914 MW
21 Oct, 10:001,914 MW1,905 MW
21 Oct, 11:001,855 MW1,896 MW
21 Oct, 12:001,830 MW1,897 MW
21 Oct, 13:001,857 MW1,920 MW
21 Oct, 14:001,878 MW1,969 MW
21 Oct, 15:001,897 MW2,019 MW
21 Oct, 16:001,930 MW2,019 MW
21 Oct, 17:001,962 MW2,016 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,000 MW2,020 MW
21 Oct, 19:001,947 MW1,983 MW
21 Oct, 20:001,845 MW1,861 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,719 MW1,724 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,609 MW1,627 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,532 MW1,579 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,464 MW1,567 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,440 MW1,478 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,437 MW1,496 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,462 MW1,536 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,555 MW1,654 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,704 MW1,814 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,842 MW1,920 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,857 MW1,951 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,847 MW1,934 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,821 MW1,916 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,824 MW1,906 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,854 MW1,901 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,881 MW1,914 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,892 MW1,948 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,869 MW2,006 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,860 MW2,072 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,876 MW2,096 MW
22 Oct, 17:001,889 MW2,103 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,913 MW2,099 MW
22 Oct, 19:001,859 MW2,061 MW
22 Oct, 20:001,785 MW1,943 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,688 MW1,805 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,582 MW1,694 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,505 MW1,630 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,450 MW1,541 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,405 MW1,448 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,402 MW1,480 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,416 MW1,510 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,481 MW1,631 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,629 MW1,792 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,769 MW1,908 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,857 MW1,994 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,908 MW1,991 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,938 MW1,951 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,923 MW1,900 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,911 MW1,863 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,892 MW1,828 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,884 MW1,819 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,904 MW1,855 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,901 MW1,914 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,902 MW1,949 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,905 MW1,987 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,933 MW2,018 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,915 MW2,002 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,860 MW1,904 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,786 MW1,792 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,712 MW1,710 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,645 MW1,674 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,603 MW1,678 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,592 MW1,674 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,596 MW1,667 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,603 MW1,697 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,680 MW1,753 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,762 MW1,817 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,859 MW1,872 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,956 MW1,934 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,804 MW1,890 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,895 MW1,808 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,805 MW1,758 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,778 MW1,738 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,704 MW1,734 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,686 MW1,740 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,679 MW1,776 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,702 MW1,861 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,710 MW1,949 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,770 MW2,016 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,830 MW2,034 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,819 MW2,000 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,797 MW1,892 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,725 MW1,771 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,659 MW1,681 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,604 MW1,639 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,583 MW1,654 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,566 MW1,623 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,572 MW1,644 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,592 MW1,681 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,632 MW1,753 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,710 MW1,837 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,760 MW1,903 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,837 MW1,957 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,908 MW1,906 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,872 MW1,818 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,810 MW1,760 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,796 MW1,733 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,727 MW1,725 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,713 MW1,734 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,755 MW1,771 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,778 MW1,847 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,797 MW1,916 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,841 MW1,964 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,807 MW1,962 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,843 MW1,914 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,699 MW1,805 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,653 MW1,689 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,587 MW1,602 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,520 MW1,567 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,486 MW1,584 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,479 MW1,526 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,475 MW1,551 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,524 MW1,604 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,637 MW1,736 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,806 MW1,903 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,933 MW1,999 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,981 MW2,010 MW
26 Oct, 08:002,014 MW1,944 MW
26 Oct, 09:002,005 MW1,879 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,995 MW1,836 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,967 MW1,796 MW
26 Oct, 12:002,011 MW1,763 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,987 MW1,747 MW
26 Oct, 14:002,002 MW1,766 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,985 MW1,820 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,943 MW1,863 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,983 MW1,906 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,021 MW1,929 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,988 MW1,916 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,912 MW1,831 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,807 MW1,730 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,711 MW1,652 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,645 MW1,625 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,623 MW1,670 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,613 MW1,668 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,621 MW1,660 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,660 MW1,717 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,772 MW1,838 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,933 MW1,984 MW
27 Oct, 06:002,069 MW2,065 MW
27 Oct, 07:002,106 MW2,058 MW
27 Oct, 08:002,093 MW1,980 MW
27 Oct, 09:002,056 MW1,888 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,988 MW1,825 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,922 MW1,795 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,903 MW1,785 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,874 MW1,779 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,861 MW1,793 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,883 MW1,846 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,901 MW1,893 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,946 MW1,938 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,016 MW1,960 MW
27 Oct, 19:001,991 MW1,948 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,919 MW1,861 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,815 MW1,760 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,719 MW1,680 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,649 MW1,650 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,631 MW1,678 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,631 MW1,682 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,646 MW1,669 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,698 MW1,734 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,810 MW1,857 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (695 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ipco_2026,
  title = {{IPCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ipco/

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