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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for BANC was off by 1.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 693 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,014 MW (36.5%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 10:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for BANC was off by 1.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 693 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,014 MW (36.5%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 10:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, BANC came 6 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 39 MW, against average demand of 1,999 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 52% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

693 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error1.8%
Bias-0.3%
Hours within 5%96%
Worst miss1,014 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-10 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,014 MW (36.5%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 10:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 1,763 MW, reported 2,777 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
BANC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BANC over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 21 Oct, 05:0022 Oct, 05:0023 Oct, 05:0024 Oct, 05:0025 Oct, 05:0026 Oct, 05:0027 Oct, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BANC over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:001,543 MW1,558 MW
21 Oct, 06:001,662 MW1,670 MW
21 Oct, 07:001,787 MW1,780 MW
21 Oct, 08:001,829 MW1,792 MW
21 Oct, 09:001,879 MW1,790 MW
21 Oct, 10:001,896 MW1,768 MW
21 Oct, 11:001,887 MW1,756 MW
21 Oct, 12:001,885 MW1,748 MW
21 Oct, 13:001,912 MW1,767 MW
21 Oct, 14:001,924 MW1,795 MW
21 Oct, 15:001,916 MW1,834 MW
21 Oct, 16:001,891 MW1,874 MW
21 Oct, 17:001,916 MW1,914 MW
21 Oct, 18:001,983 MW1,968 MW
21 Oct, 19:001,962 MW1,963 MW
21 Oct, 20:001,932 MW1,917 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,845 MW1,830 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,737 MW1,716 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,634 MW1,605 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,598 MW1,586 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,530 MW1,530 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,481 MW1,473 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,462 MW1,445 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,476 MW1,467 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,562 MW1,546 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,682 MW1,657 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,796 MW1,771 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,831 MW1,797 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,886 MW1,803 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,903 MW1,801 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,905 MW1,796 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,907 MW1,805 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,897 MW1,810 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,873 MW1,820 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,881 MW1,847 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,865 MW1,881 MW
22 Oct, 17:001,919 MW1,943 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,985 MW2,004 MW
22 Oct, 19:001,966 MW1,986 MW
22 Oct, 20:001,932 MW1,937 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,851 MW1,848 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,744 MW1,726 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,629 MW1,619 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,562 MW1,561 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,504 MW1,486 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,439 MW1,428 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,411 MW1,400 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,442 MW1,422 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,503 MW1,499 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,646 MW1,645 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,769 MW1,759 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,801 MW1,782 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,799 MW1,784 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,796 MW1,771 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,798 MW1,754 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,755 MW1,753 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,720 MW1,763 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,699 MW1,773 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,730 MW1,796 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,752 MW1,824 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,825 MW1,849 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,878 MW1,888 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,864 MW1,883 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,819 MW1,839 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,757 MW1,769 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,683 MW1,674 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,586 MW1,583 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,567 MW1,563 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,488 MW1,496 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,434 MW1,436 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,392 MW1,397 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,399 MW1,393 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,422 MW1,419 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,494 MW1,482 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,562 MW1,565 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,608 MW1,613 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,604 MW1,632 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,590 MW1,621 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,552 MW1,598 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,522 MW1,592 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,534 MW1,608 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,560 MW1,633 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,617 MW1,680 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,698 MW1,726 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,763 MW1,771 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,825 MW1,824 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,814 MW1,829 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,764 MW1,782 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,710 MW1,719 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,625 MW1,633 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,545 MW1,545 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,520 MW1,520 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,464 MW1,462 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,402 MW1,407 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,373 MW1,374 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,371 MW1,368 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,395 MW1,389 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,445 MW1,446 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,517 MW1,524 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,546 MW1,572 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,583 MW1,588 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,634 MW1,575 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,558 MW1,548 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,551 MW1,538 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,574 MW1,552 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,621 MW1,579 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,699 MW1,624 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,757 MW1,674 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,853 MW1,750 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,902 MW1,826 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,890 MW1,840 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,843 MW1,788 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,766 MW1,712 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,651 MW1,607 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,538 MW1,510 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,513 MW1,510 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,440 MW1,459 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,401 MW1,408 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,377 MW1,387 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,412 MW1,417 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,495 MW1,497 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,658 MW1,652 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,789 MW1,783 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,794 MW1,806 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,780 MW1,795 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,739 MW1,772 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,709 MW1,754 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,697 MW1,751 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,699 MW1,754 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,701 MW1,762 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,766 MW1,791 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,842 MW1,840 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,916 MW1,893 MW
26 Oct, 18:001,961 MW1,952 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,957 MW1,953 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,898 MW1,895 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,813 MW1,808 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,693 MW1,691 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,578 MW1,577 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,545 MW1,540 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,487 MW1,485 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,441 MW1,432 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,419 MW1,408 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,448 MW1,436 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,540 MW1,525 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,690 MW1,697 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,825 MW1,832 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,843 MW1,844 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,777 MW1,834 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,678 MW1,798 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,656 MW1,758 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,593 MW1,739 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,688 MW1,743 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,666 MW1,747 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,704 MW1,768 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,779 MW1,814 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,848 MW1,863 MW
27 Oct, 18:001,930 MW1,937 MW
27 Oct, 19:001,935 MW1,953 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,887 MW1,908 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,807 MW1,812 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,696 MW1,691 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,583 MW1,579 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,567 MW1,550 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,505 MW1,496 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,453 MW1,443 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,416 MW1,422 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,456 MW1,454 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (693 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/banc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/banc/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_banc_2026,
  title = {{BANC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/banc/}
}

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