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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for AECI was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 72% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 441 MW (21.1%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for AECI was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 72% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 441 MW (21.1%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, AECI came 26 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 76 MW, against average demand of 2,060 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 44% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.6%
Bias-0.3%
Hours within 5%72%
Worst miss441 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-9 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 441 MW (21.1%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 2,534 MW, reported 2,093 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CDT (UTC-05:00)
AECI day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AECI over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 21 Oct, 07:0022 Oct, 07:0023 Oct, 07:0024 Oct, 07:0025 Oct, 07:0026 Oct, 07:0027 Oct, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AECI over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 07:002,037 MW1,953 MW
21 Oct, 08:001,968 MW2,031 MW
21 Oct, 09:001,914 MW1,958 MW
21 Oct, 10:001,873 MW1,897 MW
21 Oct, 11:001,851 MW1,868 MW
21 Oct, 12:001,867 MW1,855 MW
21 Oct, 13:001,871 MW1,860 MW
21 Oct, 14:001,932 MW1,893 MW
21 Oct, 15:001,962 MW1,929 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,056 MW1,972 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,127 MW2,074 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,144 MW2,115 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,152 MW2,129 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,107 MW2,132 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,978 MW2,059 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,829 MW1,937 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,683 MW1,777 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,564 MW1,634 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,527 MW1,571 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,529 MW1,515 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,522 MW1,507 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,575 MW1,528 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,727 MW1,594 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,974 MW1,760 MW
22 Oct, 07:002,024 MW1,968 MW
22 Oct, 08:002,012 MW2,026 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,949 MW1,999 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,932 MW1,941 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,890 MW1,922 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,896 MW1,884 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,957 MW1,902 MW
22 Oct, 14:002,010 MW1,966 MW
22 Oct, 15:002,087 MW2,027 MW
22 Oct, 16:002,152 MW2,087 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,186 MW2,157 MW
22 Oct, 18:002,156 MW2,166 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,188 MW2,142 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,114 MW2,146 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,010 MW2,079 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,845 MW1,965 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,668 MW1,789 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,578 MW1,647 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,552 MW1,580 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,524 MW1,519 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,534 MW1,504 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,561 MW1,516 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,702 MW1,578 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,900 MW1,727 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,988 MW1,914 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,956 MW1,974 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,890 MW1,945 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,871 MW1,888 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,900 MW1,875 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,918 MW1,896 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,996 MW1,945 MW
23 Oct, 14:002,062 MW2,012 MW
23 Oct, 15:002,127 MW2,075 MW
23 Oct, 16:002,200 MW2,139 MW
23 Oct, 17:002,222 MW2,200 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,150 MW2,184 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,118 MW2,131 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,035 MW2,089 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,953 MW2,002 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,833 MW1,912 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,729 MW1,802 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,613 MW1,679 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,540 MW1,608 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,525 MW1,513 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,490 MW1,493 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,518 MW1,473 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,578 MW1,525 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,690 MW1,569 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,790 MW1,716 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,896 MW1,846 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,894 MW1,887 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,857 MW1,896 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,881 MW1,878 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,908 MW1,895 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,982 MW1,938 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,061 MW1,998 MW
24 Oct, 15:002,124 MW2,082 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,216 MW2,150 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,197 MW2,204 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,118 MW2,170 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,108 MW2,108 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,012 MW2,067 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,918 MW1,987 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,767 MW1,885 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,652 MW1,745 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,526 MW1,598 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,435 MW1,528 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,422 MW1,429 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,415 MW1,404 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,421 MW1,401 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,463 MW1,426 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,565 MW1,483 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,733 MW1,597 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,844 MW1,751 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,891 MW1,865 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,883 MW1,886 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,907 MW1,883 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,949 MW1,913 MW
25 Oct, 13:002,054 MW1,981 MW
25 Oct, 14:002,130 MW2,064 MW
25 Oct, 15:002,179 MW2,134 MW
25 Oct, 16:002,257 MW2,198 MW
25 Oct, 17:002,262 MW2,234 MW
25 Oct, 18:002,243 MW2,229 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,230 MW2,231 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,115 MW2,193 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,986 MW2,078 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,816 MW1,937 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,655 MW1,760 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,554 MW1,615 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,487 MW1,532 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,461 MW1,461 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,444 MW1,446 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,512 MW1,441 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,648 MW1,502 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,826 MW1,657 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,915 MW1,821 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,907 MW1,879 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,879 MW1,879 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,884 MW1,868 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,897 MW1,864 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,941 MW1,879 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,980 MW1,923 MW
26 Oct, 14:002,036 MW1,970 MW
26 Oct, 15:002,095 MW2,024 MW
26 Oct, 16:002,137 MW2,073 MW
26 Oct, 17:002,181 MW2,125 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,197 MW2,143 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,191 MW2,164 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,102 MW2,150 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,959 MW2,055 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,785 MW1,908 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,626 MW1,729 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,507 MW1,582 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,460 MW1,492 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,422 MW1,431 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,430 MW1,394 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,470 MW1,398 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,609 MW1,463 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,821 MW1,611 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,916 MW1,800 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,885 MW1,876 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,891 MW1,860 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,862 MW1,859 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,845 MW1,845 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,881 MW1,842 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,880 MW1,856 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,935 MW1,880 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,960 MW1,909 MW
27 Oct, 16:002,029 MW1,951 MW
27 Oct, 17:002,079 MW2,001 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,125 MW2,043 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,155 MW2,087 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,106 MW2,107 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,961 MW2,047 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,780 MW1,900 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,631 MW1,723 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,559 MW1,586 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,497 MW1,526 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,483 MW1,461 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,476 MW1,453 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,542 MW1,466 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,659 MW1,526 MW
28 Oct, 06:001,860 MW1,660 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/aeci/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/aeci/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_aeci_2026,
  title = {{AECI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/aeci/}
}

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