France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for France was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 3,120 MW (5.4%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Paris).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for France was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 3,120 MW (5.4%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, France came 5 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 642 MW, against average demand of 44,922 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 45% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026

Average error1.4%

Bias-0.2%

Hours within 5%99%

Worst miss3,120 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-67 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 3,120 MW (5.4%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 54,538 MW, reported 57,657 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for France over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 15:00	53,015 MW	52,350 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	51,499 MW	50,413 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	50,599 MW	49,563 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	53,144 MW	52,288 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	57,199 MW	55,800 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	54,107 MW	54,000 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	51,024 MW	50,600 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	50,973 MW	49,488 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	50,218 MW	49,688 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	48,148 MW	47,688 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	46,284 MW	46,088 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	44,370 MW	43,675 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	42,258 MW	41,438 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	41,848 MW	40,700 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	43,827 MW	42,113 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	47,834 MW	46,125 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	52,226 MW	51,063 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	55,173 MW	54,100 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	55,697 MW	55,150 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	55,722 MW	55,475 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	55,883 MW	55,763 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	55,716 MW	55,663 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	54,259 MW	54,288 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	54,120 MW	53,225 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	52,332 MW	52,413 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	50,028 MW	50,663 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	49,227 MW	50,213 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	52,600 MW	52,800 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	55,928 MW	55,925 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	52,923 MW	53,700 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	49,782 MW	50,100 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	49,730 MW	48,725 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	49,093 MW	48,713 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	47,140 MW	46,800 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	45,663 MW	45,025 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	43,775 MW	42,725 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	41,632 MW	40,513 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	41,202 MW	39,863 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	42,654 MW	41,275 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	46,359 MW	44,913 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	50,461 MW	49,975 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	53,561 MW	52,613 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	55,009 MW	53,713 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	56,507 MW	54,200 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	57,657 MW	54,538 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	57,645 MW	55,338 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	56,427 MW	54,475 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	56,132 MW	54,138 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	54,714 MW	53,413 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	52,310 MW	51,488 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	51,841 MW	51,513 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	53,972 MW	53,738 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	56,547 MW	56,288 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	54,229 MW	54,213 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	51,290 MW	51,113 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	51,403 MW	50,425 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	51,052 MW	50,475 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	48,790 MW	48,513 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	46,978 MW	46,200 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	44,634 MW	43,550 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	42,024 MW	41,413 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	40,980 MW	40,675 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	41,085 MW	41,100 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	42,573 MW	42,525 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	44,480 MW	44,163 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	46,177 MW	46,313 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	48,317 MW	48,450 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	49,601 MW	49,713 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	50,571 MW	50,950 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	51,890 MW	52,425 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	50,516 MW	51,813 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	50,273 MW	50,850 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	48,798 MW	49,725 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	48,024 MW	47,950 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	48,280 MW	47,700 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	50,987 MW	49,475 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	53,455 MW	52,225 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	51,051 MW	50,650 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	48,669 MW	47,863 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	49,033 MW	47,225 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	48,998 MW	48,263 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	46,758 MW	45,788 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	44,300 MW	44,238 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	41,588 MW	43,900 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	39,412 MW	41,813 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	37,630 MW	37,538 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	37,026 MW	36,925 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	37,801 MW	37,750 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	39,124 MW	38,763 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	40,082 MW	39,838 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	42,459 MW	41,000 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	45,045 MW	42,325 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	46,057 MW	43,700 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	47,368 MW	45,063 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	48,505 MW	46,675 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	46,190 MW	45,925 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	45,312 MW	44,263 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	44,164 MW	43,163 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	43,201 MW	41,763 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	44,884 MW	43,338 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	49,382 MW	47,150 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	50,875 MW	48,988 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	48,574 MW	47,250 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	46,795 MW	45,500 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	47,126 MW	45,875 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	47,119 MW	46,925 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	45,845 MW	46,500 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	44,571 MW	45,063 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	41,884 MW	42,825 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	39,802 MW	40,375 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	40,014 MW	39,925 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	42,573 MW	42,400 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	47,124 MW	46,938 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	50,728 MW	51,150 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	53,536 MW	53,950 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	54,681 MW	56,263 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	54,698 MW	56,550 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	54,905 MW	57,013 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	55,892 MW	57,500 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	54,725 MW	56,388 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	54,805 MW	55,700 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	53,368 MW	54,788 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	51,817 MW	53,025 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	52,356 MW	53,150 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	56,382 MW	57,063 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	56,894 MW	58,163 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	52,987 MW	54,388 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	49,713 MW	50,913 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	49,506 MW	50,075 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	48,929 MW	50,988 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	46,739 MW	47,775 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	45,101 MW	45,588 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	42,923 MW	43,438 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	41,118 MW	41,125 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	40,624 MW	40,225 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	42,250 MW	42,338 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	46,490 MW	46,700 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	49,912 MW	50,250 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	51,677 MW	52,200 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	51,876 MW	53,413 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	51,435 MW	53,000 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	51,803 MW	53,125 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	52,854 MW	53,863 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	51,656 MW	53,188 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	51,784 MW	52,600 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	50,695 MW	51,663 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	49,701 MW	50,463 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	50,185 MW	51,113 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	54,314 MW	54,738 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	54,985 MW	56,125 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	51,361 MW	52,688 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	48,449 MW	49,613 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	48,468 MW	48,838 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	48,113 MW	49,975 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	46,129 MW	46,575 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	44,584 MW	44,888 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	42,568 MW	43,113 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	40,660 MW	41,063 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	40,668 MW	40,313 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	43,037 MW	42,188 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	47,438 MW	46,225 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	51,333 MW	50,413 MW
28 Oct, 08:00	53,549 MW	52,688 MW
28 Oct, 09:00	53,728 MW	53,775 MW
28 Oct, 10:00	53,706 MW	53,713 MW
28 Oct, 11:00	53,443 MW	54,225 MW
28 Oct, 12:00	53,807 MW	54,775 MW
28 Oct, 13:00	52,161 MW	54,075 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fr_2026,
  title = {{France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/

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France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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