Statistics
Page built 2026-10-28
Data as of 2026-10-28
Search
Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Germany and Luxembourg was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 79% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 7,176 MW (16.2%) too low at 3 Oct 2026, 06:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Berlin).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Germany and Luxembourg was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 79% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 7,176 MW (16.2%) too low at 3 Oct 2026, 06:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Germany and Luxembourg came 25 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,819 MW, against average demand of 54,141 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 26% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.4%
Bias-2.1%
Hours within 5%79%
Worst miss7,176 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,194 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 7,176 MW (16.2%) too low at 3 Oct 2026, 06:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 37,090 MW, reported 44,266 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Germany and Luxembourg day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Germany and Luxembourg over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 21 Oct, 13:0022 Oct, 13:0023 Oct, 13:0024 Oct, 13:0025 Oct, 12:0026 Oct, 12:0027 Oct, 12:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Germany and Luxembourg over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 13:0068,360 MW61,417 MW
21 Oct, 14:0066,358 MW59,568 MW
21 Oct, 15:0065,907 MW58,851 MW
21 Oct, 16:0064,876 MW59,101 MW
21 Oct, 17:0066,707 MW60,814 MW
21 Oct, 18:0068,513 MW62,191 MW
21 Oct, 19:0067,244 MW62,671 MW
21 Oct, 20:0063,312 MW60,240 MW
21 Oct, 21:0059,771 MW57,081 MW
21 Oct, 22:0056,036 MW53,493 MW
21 Oct, 23:0051,865 MW49,772 MW
22 Oct, 00:0048,580 MW46,443 MW
22 Oct, 01:0047,199 MW44,618 MW
22 Oct, 02:0047,041 MW43,715 MW
22 Oct, 03:0048,222 MW43,751 MW
22 Oct, 04:0049,446 MW44,448 MW
22 Oct, 05:0053,013 MW47,451 MW
22 Oct, 06:0059,023 MW54,066 MW
22 Oct, 07:0062,614 MW59,407 MW
22 Oct, 08:0064,190 MW62,341 MW
22 Oct, 09:0064,259 MW63,527 MW
22 Oct, 10:0065,253 MW64,262 MW
22 Oct, 11:0065,937 MW64,274 MW
22 Oct, 12:0065,725 MW63,132 MW
22 Oct, 13:0065,611 MW61,128 MW
22 Oct, 14:0062,894 MW59,175 MW
22 Oct, 15:0061,704 MW57,910 MW
22 Oct, 16:0061,452 MW57,349 MW
22 Oct, 17:0062,487 MW58,495 MW
22 Oct, 18:0064,210 MW61,451 MW
22 Oct, 19:0062,605 MW61,751 MW
22 Oct, 20:0059,463 MW58,925 MW
22 Oct, 21:0056,638 MW55,695 MW
22 Oct, 22:0054,065 MW52,043 MW
22 Oct, 23:0050,239 MW48,161 MW
23 Oct, 00:0047,280 MW47,750 MW
23 Oct, 01:0046,620 MW45,916 MW
23 Oct, 02:0045,621 MW45,167 MW
23 Oct, 03:0045,798 MW45,055 MW
23 Oct, 04:0047,726 MW45,941 MW
23 Oct, 05:0050,100 MW48,866 MW
23 Oct, 06:0057,101 MW54,480 MW
23 Oct, 07:0062,453 MW59,665 MW
23 Oct, 08:0064,937 MW62,523 MW
23 Oct, 09:0066,529 MW62,740 MW
23 Oct, 10:0067,496 MW63,245 MW
23 Oct, 11:0067,445 MW63,188 MW
23 Oct, 12:0066,778 MW62,104 MW
23 Oct, 13:0064,890 MW60,461 MW
23 Oct, 14:0063,914 MW59,286 MW
23 Oct, 15:0061,802 MW59,198 MW
23 Oct, 16:0061,119 MW59,297 MW
23 Oct, 17:0061,371 MW60,089 MW
23 Oct, 18:0062,231 MW61,340 MW
23 Oct, 19:0060,896 MW61,077 MW
23 Oct, 20:0059,224 MW58,329 MW
23 Oct, 21:0055,525 MW55,254 MW
23 Oct, 22:0052,701 MW52,267 MW
23 Oct, 23:0049,951 MW49,236 MW
24 Oct, 00:0047,582 MW47,079 MW
24 Oct, 01:0045,094 MW45,341 MW
24 Oct, 02:0044,183 MW43,939 MW
24 Oct, 03:0044,196 MW43,378 MW
24 Oct, 04:0044,201 MW43,241 MW
24 Oct, 05:0044,728 MW43,515 MW
24 Oct, 06:0046,861 MW44,885 MW
24 Oct, 07:0048,325 MW46,676 MW
24 Oct, 08:0049,214 MW49,692 MW
24 Oct, 09:0051,372 MW52,288 MW
24 Oct, 10:0054,420 MW54,259 MW
24 Oct, 11:0056,331 MW55,221 MW
24 Oct, 12:0057,181 MW55,012 MW
24 Oct, 13:0056,376 MW53,535 MW
24 Oct, 14:0054,128 MW52,207 MW
24 Oct, 15:0052,165 MW51,294 MW
24 Oct, 16:0052,302 MW51,231 MW
24 Oct, 17:0052,474 MW51,670 MW
24 Oct, 18:0054,372 MW53,489 MW
24 Oct, 19:0054,125 MW53,327 MW
24 Oct, 20:0052,023 MW50,899 MW
24 Oct, 21:0050,332 MW48,967 MW
24 Oct, 22:0047,990 MW47,113 MW
24 Oct, 23:0046,986 MW44,373 MW
25 Oct, 00:0043,669 MW42,281 MW
25 Oct, 01:0041,939 MW40,989 MW
25 Oct, 02:0040,731 MW40,326 MW
25 Oct, 02:0041,297 MW40,525 MW
25 Oct, 03:0041,470 MW40,215 MW
25 Oct, 04:0042,043 MW40,578 MW
25 Oct, 05:0041,748 MW41,328 MW
25 Oct, 06:0043,487 MW42,913 MW
25 Oct, 07:0045,784 MW44,893 MW
25 Oct, 08:0048,702 MW47,399 MW
25 Oct, 09:0051,017 MW49,589 MW
25 Oct, 10:0052,613 MW51,324 MW
25 Oct, 11:0054,364 MW52,846 MW
25 Oct, 12:0053,704 MW52,582 MW
25 Oct, 13:0052,170 MW51,350 MW
25 Oct, 14:0051,218 MW50,109 MW
25 Oct, 15:0050,931 MW50,346 MW
25 Oct, 16:0051,416 MW51,203 MW
25 Oct, 17:0053,641 MW52,856 MW
25 Oct, 18:0054,618 MW54,085 MW
25 Oct, 19:0053,133 MW54,268 MW
25 Oct, 20:0051,780 MW52,392 MW
25 Oct, 21:0049,951 MW50,390 MW
25 Oct, 22:0048,148 MW48,323 MW
25 Oct, 23:0045,579 MW45,656 MW
26 Oct, 00:0044,941 MW43,772 MW
26 Oct, 01:0043,345 MW42,588 MW
26 Oct, 02:0043,370 MW42,111 MW
26 Oct, 03:0043,141 MW42,334 MW
26 Oct, 04:0044,683 MW43,843 MW
26 Oct, 05:0048,482 MW48,285 MW
26 Oct, 06:0054,926 MW55,374 MW
26 Oct, 07:0059,947 MW60,883 MW
26 Oct, 08:0062,407 MW63,086 MW
26 Oct, 09:0063,372 MW64,071 MW
26 Oct, 10:0065,345 MW65,097 MW
26 Oct, 11:0063,965 MW65,952 MW
26 Oct, 12:0063,755 MW65,607 MW
26 Oct, 13:0063,559 MW64,124 MW
26 Oct, 14:0062,461 MW62,965 MW
26 Oct, 15:0061,170 MW61,176 MW
26 Oct, 16:0060,676 MW61,675 MW
26 Oct, 17:0063,661 MW64,029 MW
26 Oct, 18:0063,703 MW65,475 MW
26 Oct, 19:0061,882 MW64,545 MW
26 Oct, 20:0058,664 MW61,358 MW
26 Oct, 21:0056,431 MW57,794 MW
26 Oct, 22:0053,491 MW53,215 MW
26 Oct, 23:0049,947 MW49,007 MW
27 Oct, 00:0046,288 MW45,806 MW
27 Oct, 01:0045,077 MW44,310 MW
27 Oct, 02:0044,920 MW43,672 MW
27 Oct, 03:0045,264 MW43,976 MW
27 Oct, 04:0047,303 MW44,802 MW
27 Oct, 05:0049,700 MW47,731 MW
27 Oct, 06:0056,045 MW53,357 MW
27 Oct, 07:0060,258 MW58,158 MW
27 Oct, 08:0062,504 MW61,015 MW
27 Oct, 09:0065,057 MW62,413 MW
27 Oct, 10:0065,634 MW63,298 MW
27 Oct, 11:0065,735 MW63,716 MW
27 Oct, 12:0066,197 MW62,991 MW
27 Oct, 13:0064,173 MW61,894 MW
27 Oct, 14:0061,434 MW60,854 MW
27 Oct, 15:0060,104 MW59,304 MW
27 Oct, 16:0060,507 MW59,774 MW
27 Oct, 17:0062,787 MW61,668 MW
27 Oct, 18:0062,746 MW63,121 MW
27 Oct, 19:0061,604 MW62,384 MW
27 Oct, 20:0057,679 MW59,488 MW
27 Oct, 21:0054,593 MW56,363 MW
27 Oct, 22:0051,013 MW53,019 MW
27 Oct, 23:0047,607 MW49,231 MW
28 Oct, 00:0047,350 MW45,082 MW
28 Oct, 01:0045,512 MW43,416 MW
28 Oct, 02:0043,912 MW41,990 MW
28 Oct, 03:0045,490 MW43,157 MW
28 Oct, 04:0046,333 MW43,530 MW
28 Oct, 05:0050,599 MW47,222 MW
28 Oct, 06:0057,180 MW53,525 MW
28 Oct, 07:0060,860 MW58,781 MW
28 Oct, 08:0063,917 MW61,991 MW
28 Oct, 09:0065,501 MW63,066 MW
28 Oct, 10:0066,745 MW64,170 MW
28 Oct, 11:0067,611 MW64,503 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_de_lu_2026,
  title = {{Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.