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Data as of 2026-10-27
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

ERCOT Daily Load Shape and Duck Curve by Hour, 29 September to 27 October 2026

In the 29 complete local days from 29 September to 27 October 2026, electricity demand in ERCOT averaged 57,086 MW and typically peaked at 16:00 local time (66,752 MW) and bottomed out at 03:00 (48,309 MW). With solar and wind taken off, the remaining load fell to 23,482 MW at 10:00 and then rose 17,043 MW between 16:00 to 19:00. Hours are local clock time (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • Over 29 complete local days from 29 September to 27 October 2026, average demand in ERCOT was 57,086 MW. The hour of the day with the highest average demand was 16:00 local time (66,752 MW) and the lowest was 03:00 (48,309 MW).
  • The largest three hour rise in average demand was 1,529 MW, between 14:00 to 17:00 local time.
  • The single highest hour of demand in the 30 day window was 82,504 MW, in the hour starting 28 Sept 2026, 16:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Solar output averaged 24,639 MW at its 12:00 peak, 43% of average demand.
  • Demand minus solar and wind (net load) averaged 35,799 MW, fell to 23,482 MW at 10:00 and rose 17,043 MW over the three hours from 16:00 to 19:00, 30% of average demand.

Average Day by Local Hour

29 days to 2026-10-27, America/Chicago time
ERCOT average demand and net generation by local hour Average electricity demand in ERCOT by local clock hour over 29 complete local days from 29 September to 27 October 2026. It was lowest at 03:00 (48,309 MW) and highest at 16:00 (66,752 MW). Net generation is the power produced inside the grid, so it differs from demand by net imports. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00
Average electricity demand in ERCOT by local clock hour over 29 complete local days from 29 September to 27 October 2026. It was lowest at 03:00 (48,309 MW) and highest at 16:00 (66,752 MW). Net generation is the power produced inside the grid, so it differs from demand by net imports.
Mean MW by local hour, 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-27
ERCOT average demand and net generation by local hour
Local hour (America/Chicago)DemandNet generation
00:0052,282 MW52,047 MW
01:0050,362 MW50,105 MW
02:0049,057 MW48,783 MW
03:0048,309 MW48,041 MW
04:0048,319 MW48,026 MW
05:0049,181 MW48,889 MW
06:0050,826 MW50,602 MW
07:0051,637 MW51,460 MW
08:0052,395 MW52,332 MW
09:0054,365 MW54,464 MW
10:0056,551 MW56,821 MW
11:0058,767 MW59,096 MW
12:0060,874 MW61,201 MW
13:0062,997 MW63,383 MW
14:0064,700 MW65,085 MW
15:0066,031 MW66,378 MW
16:0066,752 MW67,119 MW
17:0066,229 MW66,524 MW
18:0064,439 MW64,415 MW
19:0063,268 MW63,033 MW
20:0061,706 MW61,439 MW
21:0059,642 MW59,323 MW
22:0056,998 MW56,672 MW
23:0054,386 MW54,121 MW
ERCOT duck curve: demand and net load by local hour Average demand and net load (demand minus solar and wind) in ERCOT by local clock hour over 29 complete local days from 29 September to 27 October 2026. Net load was lowest at 10:00 (23,482 MW) and then rose 17,043 MW between 16:00 to 19:00. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00
Average demand and net load (demand minus solar and wind) in ERCOT by local clock hour over 29 complete local days from 29 September to 27 October 2026. Net load was lowest at 10:00 (23,482 MW) and then rose 17,043 MW between 16:00 to 19:00.
Mean MW by local hour, 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-27
ERCOT duck curve: demand and net load by local hour
Local hour (America/Chicago)DemandNet load (demand minus solar and wind)
00:0052,282 MW36,620 MW
01:0050,362 MW35,198 MW
02:0049,057 MW34,505 MW
03:0048,309 MW34,411 MW
04:0048,319 MW35,194 MW
05:0049,181 MW36,783 MW
06:0050,826 MW39,006 MW
07:0051,637 MW40,031 MW
08:0052,395 MW34,126 MW
09:0054,365 MW25,588 MW
10:0056,551 MW23,482 MW
11:0058,767 MW23,909 MW
12:0060,874 MW25,954 MW
13:0062,997 MW28,278 MW
14:0064,700 MW29,863 MW
15:0066,031 MW31,541 MW
16:0066,752 MW33,764 MW
17:0066,229 MW38,794 MW
18:0064,439 MW48,131 MW
19:0063,268 MW50,807 MW
20:0061,706 MW48,040 MW
21:0059,642 MW44,801 MW
22:0056,998 MW41,485 MW
23:0054,386 MW38,856 MW
ERCOT average solar and wind output by local hour Average solar and wind generation in ERCOT by local clock hour over 29 complete local days from 29 September to 27 October 2026. Solar peaked at 12:00 at 24,639 MW. 0 6,250 12,500 18,750 25,000 00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00
Average solar and wind generation in ERCOT by local clock hour over 29 complete local days from 29 September to 27 October 2026. Solar peaked at 12:00 at 24,639 MW.
Mean MW by local hour, 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-27
ERCOT average solar and wind output by local hour
Local hour (America/Chicago)SolarWind
00:001 MW15,661 MW
01:000 MW15,163 MW
02:001 MW14,552 MW
03:001 MW13,896 MW
04:001 MW13,125 MW
05:000 MW12,398 MW
06:002 MW11,818 MW
07:00301 MW11,304 MW
08:007,716 MW10,553 MW
09:0019,284 MW9,494 MW
10:0022,909 MW10,160 MW
11:0024,262 MW10,596 MW
12:0024,639 MW10,282 MW
13:0024,592 MW10,127 MW
14:0024,492 MW10,344 MW
15:0023,809 MW10,681 MW
16:0021,816 MW11,172 MW
17:0015,597 MW11,838 MW
18:004,101 MW12,207 MW
19:0070 MW12,391 MW
20:003 MW13,664 MW
21:001 MW14,841 MW
22:001 MW15,512 MW
23:001 MW15,529 MW
Average ERCOT demand, net generation, solar, wind and net load by local hour
Local hourDemandNet generationSolarWindNet load
00:00 52,282 MW 52,047 MW 1 MW 15,661 MW 36,620 MW
01:00 50,362 MW 50,105 MW 0 MW 15,163 MW 35,198 MW
02:00 49,057 MW 48,783 MW 1 MW 14,552 MW 34,505 MW
03:00 48,309 MW 48,041 MW 1 MW 13,896 MW 34,411 MW
04:00 48,319 MW 48,026 MW 1 MW 13,125 MW 35,194 MW
05:00 49,181 MW 48,889 MW 0 MW 12,398 MW 36,783 MW
06:00 50,826 MW 50,602 MW 2 MW 11,818 MW 39,006 MW
07:00 51,637 MW 51,460 MW 301 MW 11,304 MW 40,031 MW
08:00 52,395 MW 52,332 MW 7,716 MW 10,553 MW 34,126 MW
09:00 54,365 MW 54,464 MW 19,284 MW 9,494 MW 25,588 MW
10:00 56,551 MW 56,821 MW 22,909 MW 10,160 MW 23,482 MW
11:00 58,767 MW 59,096 MW 24,262 MW 10,596 MW 23,909 MW
12:00 60,874 MW 61,201 MW 24,639 MW 10,282 MW 25,954 MW
13:00 62,997 MW 63,383 MW 24,592 MW 10,127 MW 28,278 MW
14:00 64,700 MW 65,085 MW 24,492 MW 10,344 MW 29,863 MW
15:00 66,031 MW 66,378 MW 23,809 MW 10,681 MW 31,541 MW
16:00 66,752 MW 67,119 MW 21,816 MW 11,172 MW 33,764 MW
17:00 66,229 MW 66,524 MW 15,597 MW 11,838 MW 38,794 MW
18:00 64,439 MW 64,415 MW 4,101 MW 12,207 MW 48,131 MW
19:00 63,268 MW 63,033 MW 70 MW 12,391 MW 50,807 MW
20:00 61,706 MW 61,439 MW 3 MW 13,664 MW 48,040 MW
21:00 59,642 MW 59,323 MW 1 MW 14,841 MW 44,801 MW
22:00 56,998 MW 56,672 MW 1 MW 15,512 MW 41,485 MW
23:00 54,386 MW 54,121 MW 1 MW 15,529 MW 38,856 MW

Each value is the mean over 29 complete local days from 29 September to 27 October 2026, weekdays and weekends together, for the hour starting at that local clock time. Net load is demand minus solar and wind generation. The single highest hour of demand in the whole 30 day window was 82,504 MW; it is a published reading, not an average, and is not part of the profile above.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-27. Profiles are computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly series.

Assumptions

  • Hours are local clock time in America/Chicago. A local day is used only if it is whole inside the 30 day window and at least 22 of its hours are complete; the profile uses the 29 most recent such days. Daylight saving follows the local clock: on a clock change day the missing hour is absent and the repeated hour is averaged over both readings.
  • The average mixes weekdays and weekends and covers only 29 days, so it describes recent conditions, not a seasonal norm.
  • The evening ramp is the largest rise over three hours in the average profile, starting between 14:00 and 20:00 local time.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). ERCOT Daily Load Shape and Duck Curve by Hour. https://worldpowermonitor.com/load-shapes/ercot/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. ERCOT Daily Load Shape and Duck Curve by Hour. Data as of 2026-10-27. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/load-shapes/ercot/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_load_shapes_ercot_2026,
  title = {{ERCOT Daily Load Shape and Duck Curve by Hour}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-27. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/load-shapes/ercot/}
}

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