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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TEPC was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 82% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 392 MW (27.1%) too high at 4 Oct 2026, 12:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Phoenix).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for TEPC was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 82% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 392 MW (27.1%) too high at 4 Oct 2026, 12:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TEPC came 19 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 51 MW, against average demand of 1,601 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.1%
Bias-0.3%
Hours within 5%82%
Worst miss392 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-7 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 392 MW (27.1%) too high at 4 Oct 2026, 12:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 1,837 MW, reported 1,445 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
TEPC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 21 Oct, 05:0022 Oct, 05:0023 Oct, 05:0024 Oct, 05:0025 Oct, 05:0026 Oct, 05:0027 Oct, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:001,460 MW1,460 MW
21 Oct, 06:001,533 MW1,525 MW
21 Oct, 07:001,531 MW1,537 MW
21 Oct, 08:001,541 MW1,505 MW
21 Oct, 09:001,584 MW1,509 MW
21 Oct, 10:001,659 MW1,548 MW
21 Oct, 11:001,768 MW1,591 MW
21 Oct, 12:001,826 MW1,639 MW
21 Oct, 13:001,823 MW1,725 MW
21 Oct, 14:001,913 MW1,800 MW
21 Oct, 15:002,050 MW1,870 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,095 MW1,901 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,094 MW1,916 MW
21 Oct, 18:001,918 MW1,886 MW
21 Oct, 19:001,870 MW1,821 MW
21 Oct, 20:001,800 MW1,778 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,712 MW1,713 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,604 MW1,614 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,491 MW1,533 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,427 MW1,453 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,388 MW1,383 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,369 MW1,340 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,347 MW1,330 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,379 MW1,345 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,452 MW1,399 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,514 MW1,476 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,520 MW1,501 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,569 MW1,462 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,613 MW1,457 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,614 MW1,491 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,702 MW1,507 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,806 MW1,547 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,897 MW1,631 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,917 MW1,703 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,954 MW1,786 MW
22 Oct, 16:002,011 MW1,825 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,004 MW1,854 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,951 MW1,795 MW
22 Oct, 19:001,857 MW1,742 MW
22 Oct, 20:001,783 MW1,699 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,698 MW1,636 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,597 MW1,553 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,498 MW1,463 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,442 MW1,419 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,391 MW1,392 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,358 MW1,364 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,331 MW1,356 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,363 MW1,368 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,405 MW1,417 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,458 MW1,480 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,466 MW1,460 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,389 MW1,410 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,308 MW1,370 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,348 MW1,352 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,377 MW1,349 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,436 MW1,410 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,489 MW1,489 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,571 MW1,582 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,689 MW1,679 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,802 MW1,764 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,820 MW1,792 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,749 MW1,748 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,669 MW1,684 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,653 MW1,639 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,599 MW1,574 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,519 MW1,498 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,410 MW1,418 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,355 MW1,364 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,310 MW1,318 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,314 MW1,275 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,311 MW1,255 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,317 MW1,261 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,344 MW1,287 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,366 MW1,318 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,349 MW1,302 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,295 MW1,282 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,240 MW1,243 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,213 MW1,234 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,237 MW1,272 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,323 MW1,309 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,413 MW1,364 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,499 MW1,437 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,606 MW1,551 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,632 MW1,658 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,653 MW1,692 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,657 MW1,691 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,613 MW1,623 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,580 MW1,578 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,528 MW1,517 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,480 MW1,445 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,418 MW1,391 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,375 MW1,372 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,323 MW1,339 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,319 MW1,331 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,310 MW1,321 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,310 MW1,323 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,329 MW1,349 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,351 MW1,374 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,338 MW1,357 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,277 MW1,318 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,215 MW1,302 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,190 MW1,279 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,214 MW1,302 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,256 MW1,345 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,328 MW1,366 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,432 MW1,465 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,555 MW1,562 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,695 MW1,609 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,760 MW1,727 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,739 MW1,738 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,678 MW1,698 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,620 MW1,614 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,564 MW1,555 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,472 MW1,472 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,404 MW1,364 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,360 MW1,321 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,326 MW1,275 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,311 MW1,278 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,316 MW1,270 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,344 MW1,290 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,400 MW1,349 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,467 MW1,411 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,454 MW1,385 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,353 MW1,297 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,289 MW1,240 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,255 MW1,229 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,268 MW1,237 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,311 MW1,288 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,404 MW1,365 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,507 MW1,468 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,645 MW1,592 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,777 MW1,704 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,818 MW1,774 MW
26 Oct, 18:001,787 MW1,738 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,739 MW1,685 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,679 MW1,624 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,601 MW1,559 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,504 MW1,474 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,416 MW1,371 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,363 MW1,347 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,319 MW1,294 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,304 MW1,278 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,292 MW1,263 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,333 MW1,277 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,404 MW1,332 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,465 MW1,396 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,435 MW1,371 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,323 MW1,286 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,257 MW1,221 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,230 MW1,205 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,238 MW1,216 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,291 MW1,284 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,376 MW1,388 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,491 MW1,500 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,622 MW1,628 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,775 MW1,745 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,839 MW1,806 MW
27 Oct, 18:001,816 MW1,762 MW
27 Oct, 19:001,745 MW1,693 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,689 MW1,633 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,625 MW1,560 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,535 MW1,474 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,442 MW1,373 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,372 MW1,374 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,343 MW1,315 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,315 MW1,292 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,312 MW1,273 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,338 MW1,282 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tepc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tepc/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tepc_2026,
  title = {{TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tepc/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tepc/

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