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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PNM was off by 5.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 45% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -5.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 253 MW (14.7%) too low at 28 Sept 2026, 10:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PNM was off by 5.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 45% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -5.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 253 MW (14.7%) too low at 28 Sept 2026, 10:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PNM came 37 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 86 MW, against average demand of 1,561 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 1% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error5.5%
Bias-5.5%
Hours within 5%45%
Worst miss253 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-86 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 253 MW (14.7%) too low at 28 Sept 2026, 10:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 1,469 MW, reported 1,722 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00)
PNM day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PNM over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 21 Oct, 06:0022 Oct, 06:0023 Oct, 06:0024 Oct, 06:0025 Oct, 06:0026 Oct, 06:0027 Oct, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PNM over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 06:001,562 MW1,446 MW
21 Oct, 07:001,606 MW1,485 MW
21 Oct, 08:001,605 MW1,450 MW
21 Oct, 09:001,525 MW1,400 MW
21 Oct, 10:001,475 MW1,369 MW
21 Oct, 11:001,491 MW1,381 MW
21 Oct, 12:001,502 MW1,411 MW
21 Oct, 13:001,535 MW1,454 MW
21 Oct, 14:001,564 MW1,525 MW
21 Oct, 15:001,663 MW1,596 MW
21 Oct, 16:001,728 MW1,659 MW
21 Oct, 17:001,799 MW1,713 MW
21 Oct, 18:001,811 MW1,748 MW
21 Oct, 19:001,792 MW1,737 MW
21 Oct, 20:001,753 MW1,696 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,686 MW1,627 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,613 MW1,545 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,552 MW1,456 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,470 MW1,394 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,433 MW1,360 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,415 MW1,332 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,409 MW1,313 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,424 MW1,323 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,479 MW1,371 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,571 MW1,457 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,619 MW1,501 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,627 MW1,497 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,581 MW1,463 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,561 MW1,429 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,596 MW1,424 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,610 MW1,442 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,685 MW1,485 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,688 MW1,535 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,725 MW1,573 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,765 MW1,628 MW
22 Oct, 17:001,813 MW1,675 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,826 MW1,714 MW
22 Oct, 19:001,797 MW1,712 MW
22 Oct, 20:001,762 MW1,677 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,703 MW1,619 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,623 MW1,543 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,530 MW1,459 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,468 MW1,391 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,422 MW1,361 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,399 MW1,337 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,378 MW1,320 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,411 MW1,328 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,460 MW1,371 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,548 MW1,455 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,592 MW1,506 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,581 MW1,498 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,534 MW1,453 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,517 MW1,404 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,493 MW1,387 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,506 MW1,392 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,540 MW1,429 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,642 MW1,482 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,679 MW1,532 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,727 MW1,599 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,730 MW1,650 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,726 MW1,674 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,701 MW1,659 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,715 MW1,630 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,643 MW1,584 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,573 MW1,529 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,513 MW1,457 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,430 MW1,395 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,405 MW1,371 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,363 MW1,345 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,360 MW1,326 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,362 MW1,321 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,396 MW1,334 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,436 MW1,375 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,466 MW1,415 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,500 MW1,426 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,520 MW1,391 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,539 MW1,357 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,511 MW1,351 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,502 MW1,349 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,510 MW1,356 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,514 MW1,354 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,552 MW1,388 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,644 MW1,456 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,652 MW1,522 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,717 MW1,571 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,692 MW1,581 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,670 MW1,548 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,630 MW1,509 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,573 MW1,467 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,502 MW1,411 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,456 MW1,361 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,408 MW1,341 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,382 MW1,318 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,373 MW1,306 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,382 MW1,307 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,386 MW1,325 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,421 MW1,365 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,452 MW1,408 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,433 MW1,410 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,394 MW1,368 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,376 MW1,326 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,414 MW1,304 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,450 MW1,292 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,457 MW1,301 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,492 MW1,335 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,560 MW1,392 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,590 MW1,477 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,660 MW1,562 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,714 MW1,623 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,710 MW1,636 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,678 MW1,604 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,619 MW1,549 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,544 MW1,484 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,477 MW1,413 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,424 MW1,361 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,358 MW1,328 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,422 MW1,310 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,432 MW1,305 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,452 MW1,328 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,512 MW1,388 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,600 MW1,488 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,655 MW1,545 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,610 MW1,503 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,534 MW1,446 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,465 MW1,395 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,415 MW1,354 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,411 MW1,334 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,420 MW1,344 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,439 MW1,375 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,484 MW1,435 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,562 MW1,522 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,632 MW1,601 MW
26 Oct, 18:001,711 MW1,664 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,708 MW1,678 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,684 MW1,651 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,636 MW1,590 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,566 MW1,514 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,509 MW1,440 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,460 MW1,389 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,435 MW1,362 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,420 MW1,342 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,412 MW1,338 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,448 MW1,358 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,502 MW1,416 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,605 MW1,516 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,652 MW1,570 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,601 MW1,513 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,538 MW1,446 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,476 MW1,407 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,425 MW1,383 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,420 MW1,371 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,420 MW1,393 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,447 MW1,437 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,499 MW1,502 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,574 MW1,578 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,654 MW1,649 MW
27 Oct, 18:001,723 MW1,704 MW
27 Oct, 19:001,722 MW1,708 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,696 MW1,681 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,655 MW1,618 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,588 MW1,539 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,506 MW1,463 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,455 MW1,406 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,428 MW1,353 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,417 MW1,335 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,407 MW1,329 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,432 MW1,349 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,503 MW1,408 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pnm/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pnm/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pnm_2026,
  title = {{PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pnm/}
}

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