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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for JEA was off by 4.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 56% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 381 MW (16.0%) too low at 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for JEA was off by 4.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 56% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 381 MW (16.0%) too low at 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, JEA came 31 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 72 MW, against average demand of 1,505 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 82% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error4.9%
Bias+3.7%
Hours within 5%56%
Worst miss381 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+50 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 381 MW (16.0%) too low at 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 1,994 MW, reported 2,375 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
JEA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for JEA over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 21 Oct, 08:0022 Oct, 08:0023 Oct, 08:0024 Oct, 08:0025 Oct, 08:0026 Oct, 08:0027 Oct, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for JEA over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 08:001,275 MW1,341 MW
21 Oct, 09:001,303 MW1,327 MW
21 Oct, 10:001,338 MW1,363 MW
21 Oct, 11:001,376 MW1,389 MW
21 Oct, 12:001,411 MW1,431 MW
21 Oct, 13:001,462 MW1,476 MW
21 Oct, 14:001,504 MW1,521 MW
21 Oct, 15:001,541 MW1,565 MW
21 Oct, 16:001,578 MW1,609 MW
21 Oct, 17:001,595 MW1,641 MW
21 Oct, 18:001,553 MW1,624 MW
21 Oct, 19:001,538 MW1,590 MW
21 Oct, 20:001,477 MW1,551 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,378 MW1,488 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,259 MW1,388 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,146 MW1,266 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,046 MW1,146 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,009 MW1,074 MW
22 Oct, 02:00962 MW1,030 MW
22 Oct, 03:00970 MW1,019 MW
22 Oct, 04:00975 MW1,052 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,054 MW1,159 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,154 MW1,272 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,221 MW1,329 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,260 MW1,337 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,293 MW1,338 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,319 MW1,366 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,336 MW1,392 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,359 MW1,435 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,396 MW1,486 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,438 MW1,530 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,482 MW1,568 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,517 MW1,612 MW
22 Oct, 17:001,526 MW1,614 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,510 MW1,608 MW
22 Oct, 19:001,498 MW1,583 MW
22 Oct, 20:001,449 MW1,546 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,372 MW1,475 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,250 MW1,367 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,142 MW1,248 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,073 MW1,125 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,019 MW1,061 MW
23 Oct, 02:00996 MW1,019 MW
23 Oct, 03:00982 MW1,011 MW
23 Oct, 04:00990 MW1,042 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,074 MW1,140 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,192 MW1,255 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,254 MW1,312 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,242 MW1,328 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,294 MW1,333 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,318 MW1,358 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,340 MW1,386 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,365 MW1,419 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,384 MW1,455 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,426 MW1,485 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,439 MW1,509 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,465 MW1,570 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,464 MW1,558 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,420 MW1,555 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,418 MW1,526 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,372 MW1,487 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,318 MW1,428 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,239 MW1,330 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,155 MW1,236 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,078 MW1,162 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,023 MW1,089 MW
24 Oct, 02:00979 MW1,042 MW
24 Oct, 03:00957 MW1,017 MW
24 Oct, 04:00970 MW1,019 MW
24 Oct, 05:00995 MW1,053 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,031 MW1,105 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,082 MW1,174 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,164 MW1,234 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,242 MW1,288 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,288 MW1,324 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,325 MW1,349 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,318 MW1,368 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,331 MW1,395 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,341 MW1,430 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,338 MW1,448 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,327 MW1,472 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,339 MW1,484 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,351 MW1,476 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,390 MW1,475 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,371 MW1,461 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,323 MW1,418 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,278 MW1,357 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,192 MW1,264 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,131 MW1,188 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,077 MW1,119 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,038 MW1,071 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,016 MW1,039 MW
25 Oct, 04:00987 MW1,030 MW
25 Oct, 05:00993 MW1,013 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,022 MW1,044 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,066 MW1,106 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,140 MW1,181 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,218 MW1,244 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,271 MW1,292 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,303 MW1,329 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,324 MW1,365 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,336 MW1,407 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,338 MW1,431 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,343 MW1,446 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,359 MW1,477 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,375 MW1,483 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,402 MW1,483 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,437 MW1,493 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,411 MW1,475 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,350 MW1,418 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,264 MW1,337 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,163 MW1,227 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,078 MW1,139 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,016 MW1,063 MW
26 Oct, 02:00988 MW1,020 MW
26 Oct, 03:00976 MW1,000 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,000 MW1,028 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,073 MW1,122 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,196 MW1,226 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,258 MW1,269 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,278 MW1,293 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,314 MW1,340 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,354 MW1,383 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,398 MW1,415 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,422 MW1,438 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,446 MW1,463 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,462 MW1,478 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,465 MW1,497 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,486 MW1,539 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,535 MW1,570 MW
26 Oct, 18:001,529 MW1,584 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,568 MW1,589 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,501 MW1,569 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,423 MW1,505 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,315 MW1,414 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,195 MW1,299 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,104 MW1,191 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,043 MW1,114 MW
27 Oct, 02:00999 MW1,066 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,003 MW1,043 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,026 MW1,065 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,096 MW1,159 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,210 MW1,268 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,272 MW1,313 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,293 MW1,340 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,328 MW1,384 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,361 MW1,427 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,404 MW1,485 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,454 MW1,531 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,490 MW1,572 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,521 MW1,597 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,550 MW1,614 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,586 MW1,666 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,597 MW1,674 MW
27 Oct, 18:001,570 MW1,672 MW
27 Oct, 19:001,587 MW1,652 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,520 MW1,606 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,435 MW1,539 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,330 MW1,438 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,217 MW1,310 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,127 MW1,200 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,073 MW1,121 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,041 MW1,092 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,032 MW1,066 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,052 MW1,095 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,095 MW1,196 MW
28 Oct, 06:001,194 MW1,287 MW
28 Oct, 07:001,250 MW1,322 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/jea/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/jea/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_jea_2026,
  title = {{JEA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/jea/}
}

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