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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TEC was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 82% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 661 MW (25.4%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for TEC was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 82% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 661 MW (25.4%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TEC came 20 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 84 MW, against average demand of 2,529 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.2%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%82%
Worst miss661 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-8 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 661 MW (25.4%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 1,938 MW, reported 2,599 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
TEC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEC over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 21 Oct, 08:0022 Oct, 08:0023 Oct, 08:0024 Oct, 08:0025 Oct, 08:0026 Oct, 08:0027 Oct, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEC over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 08:001,948 MW1,967 MW
21 Oct, 09:002,042 MW2,025 MW
21 Oct, 10:002,079 MW2,055 MW
21 Oct, 11:002,154 MW2,163 MW
21 Oct, 12:002,277 MW2,321 MW
21 Oct, 13:002,459 MW2,494 MW
21 Oct, 14:002,609 MW2,662 MW
21 Oct, 15:002,744 MW2,832 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,872 MW2,953 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,939 MW2,961 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,897 MW2,889 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,858 MW2,809 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,731 MW2,670 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,542 MW2,469 MW
21 Oct, 22:002,285 MW2,217 MW
21 Oct, 23:002,043 MW1,939 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,848 MW1,923 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,701 MW1,640 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,605 MW1,562 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,552 MW1,530 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,562 MW1,565 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,660 MW1,697 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,817 MW1,866 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,904 MW1,876 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,925 MW1,955 MW
22 Oct, 09:002,002 MW2,018 MW
22 Oct, 10:002,083 MW2,058 MW
22 Oct, 11:002,092 MW2,136 MW
22 Oct, 12:002,161 MW2,249 MW
22 Oct, 13:002,259 MW2,376 MW
22 Oct, 14:002,407 MW2,510 MW
22 Oct, 15:002,556 MW2,640 MW
22 Oct, 16:002,687 MW2,754 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,769 MW2,767 MW
22 Oct, 18:002,716 MW2,709 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,680 MW2,655 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,544 MW2,531 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,378 MW2,350 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,165 MW2,114 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,955 MW1,965 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,785 MW1,866 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,657 MW1,602 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,577 MW1,534 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,533 MW1,506 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,547 MW1,542 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,635 MW1,669 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,795 MW1,828 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,892 MW1,862 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,956 MW1,919 MW
23 Oct, 09:002,042 MW1,990 MW
23 Oct, 10:002,070 MW2,045 MW
23 Oct, 11:002,081 MW2,101 MW
23 Oct, 12:002,156 MW2,227 MW
23 Oct, 13:002,277 MW2,375 MW
23 Oct, 14:002,417 MW2,526 MW
23 Oct, 15:002,569 MW2,678 MW
23 Oct, 16:002,699 MW2,788 MW
23 Oct, 17:002,729 MW2,772 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,656 MW2,665 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,598 MW2,567 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,467 MW2,439 MW
23 Oct, 21:002,325 MW2,292 MW
23 Oct, 22:002,179 MW2,107 MW
23 Oct, 23:002,012 MW1,970 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,852 MW1,930 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,720 MW1,667 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,621 MW1,584 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,574 MW1,532 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,547 MW1,523 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,559 MW1,542 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,616 MW1,591 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,692 MW1,688 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,793 MW1,862 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,937 MW1,979 MW
24 Oct, 10:002,085 MW2,061 MW
24 Oct, 11:002,183 MW2,152 MW
24 Oct, 12:002,292 MW2,277 MW
24 Oct, 13:002,414 MW2,419 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,534 MW2,543 MW
24 Oct, 15:002,648 MW2,654 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,724 MW2,715 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,681 MW2,688 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,568 MW2,598 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,512 MW2,519 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,415 MW2,404 MW
24 Oct, 21:002,312 MW2,279 MW
24 Oct, 22:002,193 MW2,127 MW
24 Oct, 23:002,049 MW2,020 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,911 MW1,981 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,787 MW1,733 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,709 MW1,662 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,658 MW1,623 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,645 MW1,612 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,647 MW1,631 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,687 MW1,676 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,752 MW1,770 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,870 MW1,961 MW
25 Oct, 09:002,032 MW2,142 MW
25 Oct, 10:002,194 MW2,294 MW
25 Oct, 11:002,365 MW2,438 MW
25 Oct, 12:002,528 MW2,604 MW
25 Oct, 13:002,681 MW2,736 MW
25 Oct, 14:002,804 MW2,840 MW
25 Oct, 15:002,901 MW2,930 MW
25 Oct, 16:002,971 MW2,990 MW
25 Oct, 17:002,948 MW2,954 MW
25 Oct, 18:002,843 MW2,855 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,800 MW2,767 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,672 MW2,628 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,489 MW2,452 MW
25 Oct, 22:002,297 MW2,239 MW
25 Oct, 23:002,108 MW2,055 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,936 MW2,005 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,809 MW1,729 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,741 MW1,670 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,714 MW1,655 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,745 MW1,707 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,835 MW1,847 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,983 MW2,001 MW
26 Oct, 07:002,045 MW2,020 MW
26 Oct, 08:002,096 MW2,115 MW
26 Oct, 09:002,198 MW2,229 MW
26 Oct, 10:002,338 MW2,359 MW
26 Oct, 11:002,500 MW2,493 MW
26 Oct, 12:002,636 MW2,630 MW
26 Oct, 13:002,781 MW2,755 MW
26 Oct, 14:002,863 MW2,860 MW
26 Oct, 15:002,973 MW2,956 MW
26 Oct, 16:003,011 MW3,025 MW
26 Oct, 17:002,983 MW3,014 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,932 MW2,947 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,912 MW2,869 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,764 MW2,701 MW
26 Oct, 21:002,586 MW2,502 MW
26 Oct, 22:002,358 MW2,262 MW
26 Oct, 23:002,134 MW2,102 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,937 MW2,020 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,795 MW1,733 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,705 MW1,672 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,659 MW1,642 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,664 MW1,686 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,772 MW1,817 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,938 MW1,965 MW
27 Oct, 07:002,025 MW1,986 MW
27 Oct, 08:002,110 MW2,068 MW
27 Oct, 09:002,169 MW2,163 MW
27 Oct, 10:002,173 MW2,284 MW
27 Oct, 11:002,296 MW2,415 MW
27 Oct, 12:002,459 MW2,568 MW
27 Oct, 13:002,599 MW2,708 MW
27 Oct, 14:002,715 MW2,828 MW
27 Oct, 15:002,828 MW2,966 MW
27 Oct, 16:002,949 MW3,013 MW
27 Oct, 17:002,980 MW3,001 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,919 MW2,941 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,923 MW2,867 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,802 MW2,709 MW
27 Oct, 21:002,643 MW2,522 MW
27 Oct, 22:002,436 MW2,280 MW
27 Oct, 23:002,231 MW2,164 MW
28 Oct, 00:002,063 MW2,133 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,928 MW1,870 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,830 MW1,800 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,766 MW1,768 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,767 MW1,811 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,859 MW1,950 MW
28 Oct, 06:002,025 MW2,102 MW
28 Oct, 07:002,101 MW2,137 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tec/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tec/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tec_2026,
  title = {{TEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tec/}
}

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