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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PGE was off by 1.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 332 MW (12.6%) too high at 27 Oct 2026, 08:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PGE was off by 1.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 332 MW (12.6%) too high at 27 Oct 2026, 08:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PGE came 1 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 33 MW, against average demand of 2,549 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 67% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error1.3%
Bias+0.5%
Hours within 5%99%
Worst miss332 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+12 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 332 MW (12.6%) too high at 27 Oct 2026, 08:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 2,960 MW, reported 2,628 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
PGE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PGE over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 21 Oct, 05:0022 Oct, 05:0023 Oct, 05:0024 Oct, 05:0025 Oct, 05:0026 Oct, 05:0027 Oct, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PGE over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:002,386 MW2,370 MW
21 Oct, 06:002,640 MW2,619 MW
21 Oct, 07:002,832 MW2,804 MW
21 Oct, 08:002,848 MW2,799 MW
21 Oct, 09:002,735 MW2,705 MW
21 Oct, 10:002,634 MW2,622 MW
21 Oct, 11:002,595 MW2,568 MW
21 Oct, 12:002,563 MW2,559 MW
21 Oct, 13:002,578 MW2,582 MW
21 Oct, 14:002,590 MW2,593 MW
21 Oct, 15:002,641 MW2,666 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,739 MW2,766 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,844 MW2,892 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,898 MW2,947 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,864 MW2,920 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,785 MW2,824 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,673 MW2,711 MW
21 Oct, 22:002,535 MW2,562 MW
21 Oct, 23:002,375 MW2,412 MW
22 Oct, 00:002,255 MW2,271 MW
22 Oct, 01:002,193 MW2,194 MW
22 Oct, 02:002,152 MW2,158 MW
22 Oct, 03:002,156 MW2,161 MW
22 Oct, 04:002,221 MW2,229 MW
22 Oct, 05:002,390 MW2,400 MW
22 Oct, 06:002,650 MW2,669 MW
22 Oct, 07:002,838 MW2,838 MW
22 Oct, 08:002,865 MW2,849 MW
22 Oct, 09:002,826 MW2,779 MW
22 Oct, 10:002,714 MW2,708 MW
22 Oct, 11:002,613 MW2,653 MW
22 Oct, 12:002,620 MW2,622 MW
22 Oct, 13:002,604 MW2,616 MW
22 Oct, 14:002,582 MW2,608 MW
22 Oct, 15:002,679 MW2,627 MW
22 Oct, 16:002,744 MW2,688 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,792 MW2,775 MW
22 Oct, 18:002,852 MW2,848 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,847 MW2,838 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,784 MW2,779 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,706 MW2,701 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,565 MW2,569 MW
22 Oct, 23:002,419 MW2,455 MW
23 Oct, 00:002,311 MW2,339 MW
23 Oct, 01:002,245 MW2,263 MW
23 Oct, 02:002,207 MW2,221 MW
23 Oct, 03:002,213 MW2,222 MW
23 Oct, 04:002,287 MW2,291 MW
23 Oct, 05:002,434 MW2,455 MW
23 Oct, 06:002,697 MW2,706 MW
23 Oct, 07:002,892 MW2,891 MW
23 Oct, 08:002,919 MW2,926 MW
23 Oct, 09:002,845 MW2,869 MW
23 Oct, 10:002,771 MW2,805 MW
23 Oct, 11:002,644 MW2,742 MW
23 Oct, 12:002,603 MW2,666 MW
23 Oct, 13:002,580 MW2,615 MW
23 Oct, 14:002,548 MW2,582 MW
23 Oct, 15:002,551 MW2,607 MW
23 Oct, 16:002,619 MW2,695 MW
23 Oct, 17:002,730 MW2,792 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,801 MW2,842 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,779 MW2,817 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,729 MW2,754 MW
23 Oct, 21:002,657 MW2,695 MW
23 Oct, 22:002,570 MW2,598 MW
23 Oct, 23:002,448 MW2,486 MW
24 Oct, 00:002,352 MW2,401 MW
24 Oct, 01:002,289 MW2,305 MW
24 Oct, 02:002,258 MW2,270 MW
24 Oct, 03:002,253 MW2,264 MW
24 Oct, 04:002,297 MW2,302 MW
24 Oct, 05:002,397 MW2,392 MW
24 Oct, 06:002,535 MW2,525 MW
24 Oct, 07:002,692 MW2,663 MW
24 Oct, 08:002,793 MW2,755 MW
24 Oct, 09:002,784 MW2,752 MW
24 Oct, 10:002,700 MW2,687 MW
24 Oct, 11:002,582 MW2,590 MW
24 Oct, 12:002,523 MW2,529 MW
24 Oct, 13:002,493 MW2,488 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,451 MW2,488 MW
24 Oct, 15:002,483 MW2,539 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,571 MW2,628 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,690 MW2,720 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,759 MW2,783 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,751 MW2,778 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,692 MW2,727 MW
24 Oct, 21:002,616 MW2,662 MW
24 Oct, 22:002,519 MW2,561 MW
24 Oct, 23:002,399 MW2,442 MW
25 Oct, 00:002,300 MW2,342 MW
25 Oct, 01:002,233 MW2,262 MW
25 Oct, 02:002,197 MW2,210 MW
25 Oct, 03:002,183 MW2,195 MW
25 Oct, 04:002,202 MW2,214 MW
25 Oct, 05:002,263 MW2,275 MW
25 Oct, 06:002,360 MW2,382 MW
25 Oct, 07:002,484 MW2,516 MW
25 Oct, 08:002,610 MW2,620 MW
25 Oct, 09:002,713 MW2,663 MW
25 Oct, 10:002,794 MW2,676 MW
25 Oct, 11:002,845 MW2,689 MW
25 Oct, 12:002,888 MW2,652 MW
25 Oct, 13:002,885 MW2,632 MW
25 Oct, 14:002,854 MW2,577 MW
25 Oct, 15:002,818 MW2,656 MW
25 Oct, 16:002,828 MW2,699 MW
25 Oct, 17:002,881 MW2,795 MW
25 Oct, 18:002,943 MW2,868 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,914 MW2,864 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,832 MW2,806 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,715 MW2,698 MW
25 Oct, 22:002,541 MW2,566 MW
25 Oct, 23:002,395 MW2,409 MW
26 Oct, 00:002,270 MW2,302 MW
26 Oct, 01:002,217 MW2,234 MW
26 Oct, 02:002,176 MW2,200 MW
26 Oct, 03:002,177 MW2,206 MW
26 Oct, 04:002,249 MW2,276 MW
26 Oct, 05:002,414 MW2,449 MW
26 Oct, 06:002,672 MW2,696 MW
26 Oct, 07:002,856 MW2,898 MW
26 Oct, 08:002,886 MW2,953 MW
26 Oct, 09:002,891 MW2,944 MW
26 Oct, 10:002,907 MW2,908 MW
26 Oct, 11:002,905 MW2,873 MW
26 Oct, 12:002,913 MW2,840 MW
26 Oct, 13:002,914 MW2,819 MW
26 Oct, 14:002,875 MW2,794 MW
26 Oct, 15:002,865 MW2,811 MW
26 Oct, 16:002,923 MW2,857 MW
26 Oct, 17:002,996 MW2,932 MW
26 Oct, 18:003,036 MW3,041 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,983 MW3,009 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,898 MW2,918 MW
26 Oct, 21:002,777 MW2,816 MW
26 Oct, 22:002,606 MW2,684 MW
26 Oct, 23:002,446 MW2,531 MW
27 Oct, 00:002,319 MW2,409 MW
27 Oct, 01:002,251 MW2,325 MW
27 Oct, 02:002,200 MW2,270 MW
27 Oct, 03:002,204 MW2,267 MW
27 Oct, 04:002,250 MW2,329 MW
27 Oct, 05:002,429 MW2,489 MW
27 Oct, 06:002,674 MW2,747 MW
27 Oct, 07:002,846 MW2,934 MW
27 Oct, 08:002,628 MW2,960 MW
27 Oct, 09:002,857 MW2,947 MW
27 Oct, 10:002,842 MW2,914 MW
27 Oct, 11:002,837 MW2,859 MW
27 Oct, 12:002,827 MW2,829 MW
27 Oct, 13:002,838 MW2,828 MW
27 Oct, 14:002,784 MW2,815 MW
27 Oct, 15:002,743 MW2,795 MW
27 Oct, 16:002,783 MW2,840 MW
27 Oct, 17:002,901 MW2,921 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,982 MW3,011 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,955 MW2,982 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,885 MW2,905 MW
27 Oct, 21:002,785 MW2,803 MW
27 Oct, 22:002,633 MW2,675 MW
27 Oct, 23:002,477 MW2,514 MW
28 Oct, 00:002,358 MW2,375 MW
28 Oct, 01:002,287 MW2,297 MW
28 Oct, 02:002,248 MW2,256 MW
28 Oct, 03:002,249 MW2,253 MW
28 Oct, 04:002,308 MW2,322 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pge/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pge/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pge_2026,
  title = {{PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pge/}
}

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