Statistics
Page built 2026-10-28
Data as of 2026-10-28
Search
Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SOCO was off by 5.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 712 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 66% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +5.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 19,751 MW (44.2%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SOCO was off by 5.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 712 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 66% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +5.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 19,751 MW (44.2%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SOCO came 35 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,269 MW, against average demand of 24,050 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 93% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

712 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error5.3%
Bias+5.0%
Hours within 5%66%
Worst miss19,751 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1,137 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 19,751 MW (44.2%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 24,972 MW, reported 44,723 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CDT (UTC-05:00)
SOCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SOCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 21 Oct, 07:0022 Oct, 07:0023 Oct, 07:0024 Oct, 07:0025 Oct, 07:0026 Oct, 07:0027 Oct, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SOCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 07:0023,979 MW25,062 MW
21 Oct, 08:0022,331 MW24,983 MW
21 Oct, 09:0021,604 MW24,743 MW
21 Oct, 10:0021,516 MW24,617 MW
21 Oct, 11:0021,559 MW24,555 MW
21 Oct, 12:0021,846 MW24,748 MW
21 Oct, 13:0044,723 MW24,972 MW
21 Oct, 14:0022,345 MW25,310 MW
21 Oct, 15:0022,836 MW25,814 MW
21 Oct, 16:0023,708 MW25,911 MW
21 Oct, 17:0025,185 MW25,682 MW
21 Oct, 18:0025,645 MW25,956 MW
21 Oct, 19:0025,306 MW25,662 MW
21 Oct, 20:0024,391 MW24,785 MW
21 Oct, 21:0023,041 MW23,515 MW
21 Oct, 22:0021,581 MW22,013 MW
21 Oct, 23:0020,668 MW21,057 MW
22 Oct, 00:0020,021 MW20,412 MW
22 Oct, 01:0019,544 MW19,883 MW
22 Oct, 02:0019,536 MW19,849 MW
22 Oct, 03:0019,891 MW20,204 MW
22 Oct, 04:0020,868 MW21,223 MW
22 Oct, 05:0022,624 MW23,176 MW
22 Oct, 06:0024,192 MW24,799 MW
22 Oct, 07:0023,867 MW25,128 MW
22 Oct, 08:0022,338 MW25,044 MW
22 Oct, 09:0021,576 MW24,874 MW
22 Oct, 10:0021,483 MW24,736 MW
22 Oct, 11:0021,609 MW24,909 MW
22 Oct, 12:0022,053 MW25,186 MW
22 Oct, 13:0022,265 MW25,474 MW
22 Oct, 14:0022,720 MW25,911 MW
22 Oct, 15:0023,290 MW26,253 MW
22 Oct, 16:0024,286 MW26,324 MW
22 Oct, 17:0025,299 MW26,142 MW
22 Oct, 18:0025,648 MW26,400 MW
22 Oct, 19:0025,287 MW25,973 MW
22 Oct, 20:0024,375 MW25,060 MW
22 Oct, 21:0023,052 MW23,693 MW
22 Oct, 22:0021,684 MW22,220 MW
22 Oct, 23:0020,205 MW21,104 MW
23 Oct, 00:0019,865 MW20,161 MW
23 Oct, 01:0019,410 MW19,726 MW
23 Oct, 02:0019,170 MW19,817 MW
23 Oct, 03:0019,353 MW20,034 MW
23 Oct, 04:0020,393 MW20,886 MW
23 Oct, 05:0022,114 MW22,716 MW
23 Oct, 06:0023,602 MW24,282 MW
23 Oct, 07:0023,379 MW24,766 MW
23 Oct, 08:0021,904 MW24,941 MW
23 Oct, 09:0021,274 MW24,760 MW
23 Oct, 10:0021,276 MW24,610 MW
23 Oct, 11:0021,208 MW24,718 MW
23 Oct, 12:0021,520 MW24,751 MW
23 Oct, 13:0021,651 MW24,869 MW
23 Oct, 14:0021,958 MW25,112 MW
23 Oct, 15:0022,414 MW25,356 MW
23 Oct, 16:0023,394 MW25,356 MW
23 Oct, 17:0024,311 MW25,239 MW
23 Oct, 18:0024,449 MW25,400 MW
23 Oct, 19:0023,838 MW24,907 MW
23 Oct, 20:0023,154 MW24,113 MW
23 Oct, 21:0022,341 MW23,039 MW
23 Oct, 22:0021,421 MW21,855 MW
23 Oct, 23:0020,358 MW20,879 MW
24 Oct, 00:0019,658 MW19,888 MW
24 Oct, 01:0019,330 MW19,497 MW
24 Oct, 02:0018,965 MW19,434 MW
24 Oct, 03:0019,093 MW19,475 MW
24 Oct, 04:0019,494 MW19,768 MW
24 Oct, 05:0020,241 MW20,491 MW
24 Oct, 06:0021,083 MW21,324 MW
24 Oct, 07:0021,338 MW22,257 MW
24 Oct, 08:0020,405 MW23,048 MW
24 Oct, 09:0019,917 MW23,272 MW
24 Oct, 10:0019,860 MW23,223 MW
24 Oct, 11:0019,761 MW23,169 MW
24 Oct, 12:0019,851 MW23,085 MW
24 Oct, 13:0019,953 MW23,078 MW
24 Oct, 14:0020,079 MW23,180 MW
24 Oct, 15:0020,411 MW23,453 MW
24 Oct, 16:0021,718 MW23,597 MW
24 Oct, 17:0022,800 MW23,724 MW
24 Oct, 18:0023,224 MW23,899 MW
24 Oct, 19:0022,986 MW23,660 MW
24 Oct, 20:0022,387 MW23,034 MW
24 Oct, 21:0021,692 MW22,215 MW
24 Oct, 22:0020,798 MW21,288 MW
24 Oct, 23:0039,918 MW20,358 MW
25 Oct, 00:0019,181 MW19,412 MW
25 Oct, 01:0018,776 MW19,085 MW
25 Oct, 02:0018,413 MW18,892 MW
25 Oct, 03:0018,360 MW18,442 MW
25 Oct, 04:0018,672 MW18,691 MW
25 Oct, 05:0019,154 MW19,187 MW
25 Oct, 06:0019,805 MW20,031 MW
25 Oct, 07:0020,054 MW20,974 MW
25 Oct, 08:0019,431 MW21,818 MW
25 Oct, 09:0019,080 MW21,868 MW
25 Oct, 10:0019,111 MW21,818 MW
25 Oct, 11:0019,411 MW21,868 MW
25 Oct, 12:0019,824 MW21,967 MW
25 Oct, 13:0020,135 MW22,266 MW
25 Oct, 14:0020,444 MW22,514 MW
25 Oct, 15:0021,195 MW23,160 MW
25 Oct, 16:0022,376 MW23,557 MW
25 Oct, 17:0023,806 MW23,756 MW
25 Oct, 18:0024,504 MW24,104 MW
25 Oct, 19:0024,309 MW23,813 MW
25 Oct, 20:0023,447 MW23,131 MW
25 Oct, 21:0022,107 MW22,061 MW
25 Oct, 22:0020,905 MW20,835 MW
25 Oct, 23:0019,748 MW19,837 MW
26 Oct, 00:0018,996 MW19,175 MW
26 Oct, 01:0018,680 MW18,678 MW
26 Oct, 02:0018,685 MW18,827 MW
26 Oct, 03:0019,113 MW19,274 MW
26 Oct, 04:0020,145 MW20,168 MW
26 Oct, 05:0021,966 MW22,301 MW
26 Oct, 06:0023,521 MW23,990 MW
26 Oct, 07:0023,341 MW24,487 MW
26 Oct, 08:0021,994 MW24,685 MW
26 Oct, 09:0021,639 MW24,636 MW
26 Oct, 10:0021,449 MW24,636 MW
26 Oct, 11:0022,064 MW24,636 MW
26 Oct, 12:0022,064 MW24,983 MW
26 Oct, 13:0022,276 MW25,232 MW
26 Oct, 14:0022,664 MW25,530 MW
26 Oct, 15:0023,401 MW25,927 MW
26 Oct, 16:0025,742 MW26,176 MW
26 Oct, 17:0025,261 MW26,325 MW
26 Oct, 18:0026,082 MW26,424 MW
26 Oct, 19:0025,590 MW26,030 MW
26 Oct, 20:0024,401 MW25,136 MW
26 Oct, 21:0022,832 MW23,560 MW
26 Oct, 22:0021,627 MW22,063 MW
26 Oct, 23:0020,682 MW20,764 MW
27 Oct, 00:0020,036 MW20,261 MW
27 Oct, 01:0019,667 MW19,838 MW
27 Oct, 02:0019,522 MW20,206 MW
27 Oct, 03:0019,781 MW20,702 MW
27 Oct, 04:0020,764 MW21,646 MW
27 Oct, 05:0022,584 MW23,484 MW
27 Oct, 06:0024,229 MW25,024 MW
27 Oct, 07:0024,010 MW25,124 MW
27 Oct, 08:0022,466 MW25,024 MW
27 Oct, 09:0021,819 MW24,875 MW
27 Oct, 10:0021,635 MW24,776 MW
27 Oct, 11:0021,875 MW24,826 MW
27 Oct, 12:0022,033 MW25,223 MW
27 Oct, 13:0022,378 MW25,422 MW
27 Oct, 14:0022,693 MW25,800 MW
27 Oct, 15:0024,006 MW26,084 MW
27 Oct, 16:0024,968 MW26,226 MW
27 Oct, 17:0026,122 MW26,415 MW
27 Oct, 18:0026,188 MW26,746 MW
27 Oct, 19:0023,518 MW26,316 MW
27 Oct, 20:0024,526 MW25,322 MW
27 Oct, 21:0023,197 MW23,931 MW
27 Oct, 22:0021,795 MW22,441 MW
27 Oct, 23:0020,795 MW21,199 MW
28 Oct, 00:0020,479 MW20,480 MW
28 Oct, 01:0020,078 MW20,078 MW
28 Oct, 02:0020,029 MW20,057 MW
28 Oct, 03:0020,243 MW20,404 MW
28 Oct, 04:0021,213 MW21,249 MW
28 Oct, 05:0023,051 MW22,988 MW
28 Oct, 06:0024,572 MW24,180 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (712 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/soco/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/soco/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_soco_2026,
  title = {{SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/soco/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/soco/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.