Statistics
Page built 2026-10-28
Data as of 2026-10-28
Search
Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TVA was off by 2.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 26,747 MW (60.3%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for TVA was off by 2.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 26,747 MW (60.3%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TVA came 10 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 422 MW, against average demand of 17,595 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 68% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.3%
Bias+1.3%
Hours within 5%89%
Worst miss26,747 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+214 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 26,747 MW (60.3%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 17:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 17,630 MW, reported 44,377 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CDT (UTC-05:00)
TVA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 21 Oct, 07:0022 Oct, 07:0023 Oct, 07:0024 Oct, 07:0025 Oct, 07:0026 Oct, 07:0027 Oct, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 07:0017,432 MW17,674 MW
21 Oct, 08:0018,570 MW17,488 MW
21 Oct, 09:0017,099 MW17,182 MW
21 Oct, 10:0016,889 MW17,168 MW
21 Oct, 11:0016,969 MW17,140 MW
21 Oct, 12:0017,026 MW17,170 MW
21 Oct, 13:0017,067 MW17,151 MW
21 Oct, 14:0017,248 MW17,298 MW
21 Oct, 15:0017,579 MW17,507 MW
21 Oct, 16:0017,813 MW17,720 MW
21 Oct, 17:0017,872 MW17,750 MW
21 Oct, 18:0017,784 MW17,806 MW
21 Oct, 19:0017,817 MW17,877 MW
21 Oct, 20:0017,099 MW17,506 MW
21 Oct, 21:0016,592 MW16,727 MW
21 Oct, 22:0015,341 MW15,751 MW
21 Oct, 23:0014,832 MW14,909 MW
22 Oct, 00:0014,302 MW14,391 MW
22 Oct, 01:0014,068 MW14,102 MW
22 Oct, 02:0014,069 MW14,028 MW
22 Oct, 03:0014,192 MW14,044 MW
22 Oct, 04:0014,765 MW14,581 MW
22 Oct, 05:0015,896 MW15,738 MW
22 Oct, 06:0017,126 MW16,988 MW
22 Oct, 07:0017,541 MW17,364 MW
22 Oct, 08:0017,442 MW17,280 MW
22 Oct, 09:0017,150 MW17,125 MW
22 Oct, 10:0017,050 MW17,160 MW
22 Oct, 11:0017,094 MW17,200 MW
22 Oct, 12:0017,247 MW17,223 MW
22 Oct, 13:0016,942 MW17,134 MW
22 Oct, 14:0017,253 MW17,283 MW
22 Oct, 15:0017,406 MW17,518 MW
22 Oct, 16:0017,777 MW17,648 MW
22 Oct, 17:0017,681 MW17,686 MW
22 Oct, 18:0017,869 MW17,716 MW
22 Oct, 19:0018,021 MW17,758 MW
22 Oct, 20:0017,631 MW17,390 MW
22 Oct, 21:0016,777 MW16,564 MW
22 Oct, 22:0015,852 MW15,691 MW
22 Oct, 23:0015,047 MW14,861 MW
23 Oct, 00:0014,546 MW14,255 MW
23 Oct, 01:0014,280 MW13,923 MW
23 Oct, 02:0014,147 MW13,860 MW
23 Oct, 03:0014,257 MW13,922 MW
23 Oct, 04:0014,849 MW14,428 MW
23 Oct, 05:0015,909 MW15,461 MW
23 Oct, 06:0017,037 MW16,642 MW
23 Oct, 07:0017,484 MW17,088 MW
23 Oct, 08:0017,393 MW17,154 MW
23 Oct, 09:0017,109 MW17,055 MW
23 Oct, 10:0017,041 MW17,023 MW
23 Oct, 11:0016,963 MW17,036 MW
23 Oct, 12:0016,886 MW17,058 MW
23 Oct, 13:0016,714 MW16,988 MW
23 Oct, 14:0017,120 MW17,136 MW
23 Oct, 15:0017,431 MW17,309 MW
23 Oct, 16:0017,560 MW17,436 MW
23 Oct, 17:0017,225 MW17,406 MW
23 Oct, 18:0017,317 MW17,323 MW
23 Oct, 19:0017,221 MW17,231 MW
23 Oct, 20:0016,753 MW16,795 MW
23 Oct, 21:0016,266 MW16,158 MW
23 Oct, 22:0015,548 MW15,462 MW
23 Oct, 23:0014,869 MW14,678 MW
24 Oct, 00:0014,350 MW14,145 MW
24 Oct, 01:0013,976 MW13,887 MW
24 Oct, 02:0013,736 MW13,760 MW
24 Oct, 03:0013,888 MW13,699 MW
24 Oct, 04:0014,028 MW13,864 MW
24 Oct, 05:0014,467 MW14,274 MW
24 Oct, 06:0015,078 MW14,932 MW
24 Oct, 07:0015,742 MW15,446 MW
24 Oct, 08:0016,127 MW15,900 MW
24 Oct, 09:0016,252 MW15,999 MW
24 Oct, 10:0016,218 MW16,086 MW
24 Oct, 11:0016,243 MW16,057 MW
24 Oct, 12:0016,383 MW16,124 MW
24 Oct, 13:0016,611 MW16,194 MW
24 Oct, 14:0016,870 MW16,427 MW
24 Oct, 15:0017,087 MW16,595 MW
24 Oct, 16:0017,312 MW16,844 MW
24 Oct, 17:0017,100 MW16,848 MW
24 Oct, 18:0017,020 MW16,966 MW
24 Oct, 19:0016,669 MW16,725 MW
24 Oct, 20:0016,311 MW16,301 MW
24 Oct, 21:0015,663 MW15,784 MW
24 Oct, 22:0015,035 MW15,050 MW
24 Oct, 23:0014,440 MW14,411 MW
25 Oct, 00:0013,856 MW13,879 MW
25 Oct, 01:0013,527 MW13,590 MW
25 Oct, 02:0013,451 MW13,375 MW
25 Oct, 03:0013,365 MW13,268 MW
25 Oct, 04:0013,546 MW13,375 MW
25 Oct, 05:0013,970 MW13,674 MW
25 Oct, 06:0014,555 MW14,290 MW
25 Oct, 07:0015,176 MW15,132 MW
25 Oct, 08:0015,761 MW15,584 MW
25 Oct, 09:0015,543 MW15,749 MW
25 Oct, 10:0015,671 MW15,836 MW
25 Oct, 11:0015,820 MW15,812 MW
25 Oct, 12:0016,165 MW16,126 MW
25 Oct, 13:0016,436 MW16,320 MW
25 Oct, 14:0016,818 MW16,572 MW
25 Oct, 15:0017,090 MW16,644 MW
25 Oct, 16:0017,343 MW16,894 MW
25 Oct, 17:0017,367 MW17,051 MW
25 Oct, 18:0017,582 MW17,357 MW
25 Oct, 19:0017,329 MW17,300 MW
25 Oct, 20:0016,719 MW16,826 MW
25 Oct, 21:0016,063 MW15,991 MW
25 Oct, 22:0015,129 MW15,225 MW
25 Oct, 23:0014,414 MW14,499 MW
26 Oct, 00:0013,914 MW13,919 MW
26 Oct, 01:0013,662 MW13,669 MW
26 Oct, 02:0013,520 MW13,564 MW
26 Oct, 03:0013,727 MW13,687 MW
26 Oct, 04:0014,565 MW14,256 MW
26 Oct, 05:0015,733 MW15,370 MW
26 Oct, 06:0017,018 MW16,760 MW
26 Oct, 07:0017,441 MW17,137 MW
26 Oct, 08:0017,396 MW17,447 MW
26 Oct, 09:0017,340 MW17,532 MW
26 Oct, 10:0017,346 MW17,474 MW
26 Oct, 11:0017,340 MW17,366 MW
26 Oct, 12:0017,237 MW17,409 MW
26 Oct, 13:0017,354 MW17,235 MW
26 Oct, 14:0017,165 MW17,360 MW
26 Oct, 15:0017,360 MW17,609 MW
26 Oct, 16:0017,480 MW17,765 MW
26 Oct, 17:0017,605 MW17,915 MW
26 Oct, 18:0018,226 MW18,264 MW
26 Oct, 19:0018,251 MW18,206 MW
26 Oct, 20:0017,808 MW17,625 MW
26 Oct, 21:0017,008 MW16,726 MW
26 Oct, 22:0015,908 MW15,796 MW
26 Oct, 23:0014,848 MW15,007 MW
27 Oct, 00:0014,246 MW14,407 MW
27 Oct, 01:0014,153 MW14,151 MW
27 Oct, 02:0014,106 MW13,983 MW
27 Oct, 03:0014,227 MW14,016 MW
27 Oct, 04:0014,922 MW14,563 MW
27 Oct, 05:0016,093 MW15,646 MW
27 Oct, 06:0017,331 MW16,959 MW
27 Oct, 07:0017,670 MW17,289 MW
27 Oct, 08:0017,627 MW17,422 MW
27 Oct, 09:0017,467 MW17,360 MW
27 Oct, 10:0017,389 MW17,339 MW
27 Oct, 11:0017,535 MW17,288 MW
27 Oct, 12:0017,532 MW17,422 MW
27 Oct, 13:0017,438 MW17,333 MW
27 Oct, 14:0017,574 MW17,475 MW
27 Oct, 15:0017,664 MW17,769 MW
27 Oct, 16:0017,842 MW17,919 MW
27 Oct, 17:0017,921 MW17,986 MW
27 Oct, 18:0018,121 MW18,276 MW
27 Oct, 19:0018,163 MW18,220 MW
27 Oct, 20:0017,639 MW17,688 MW
27 Oct, 21:0016,792 MW16,777 MW
27 Oct, 22:0015,775 MW15,922 MW
27 Oct, 23:0014,933 MW15,063 MW
28 Oct, 00:0014,450 MW14,510 MW
28 Oct, 01:0014,216 MW14,197 MW
28 Oct, 02:0014,052 MW13,986 MW
28 Oct, 03:0014,186 MW14,020 MW
28 Oct, 04:0013,860 MW14,449 MW
28 Oct, 05:0016,294 MW15,460 MW
28 Oct, 06:0016,294 MW16,614 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tva/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tva/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tva_2026,
  title = {{TVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tva/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tva/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.