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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South (SE4) was off by 8.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 683 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 31% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +8.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 715 MW (37.8%) too high at 5 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South (SE4) was off by 8.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 683 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 31% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +8.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 715 MW (37.8%) too high at 5 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden South (SE4) came 39 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 184 MW, against average demand of 2,225 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 92% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

683 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error8.8%
Bias+8.3%
Hours within 5%31%
Worst miss715 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+174 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 715 MW (37.8%) too high at 5 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,606 MW, reported 1,891 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden South (SE4) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South (SE4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South (SE4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:002,598 MW2,707 MW
21 Oct, 15:002,619 MW2,709 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,574 MW2,699 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,604 MW2,777 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,624 MW2,813 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,597 MW2,793 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,491 MW2,675 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,386 MW2,549 MW
21 Oct, 22:002,208 MW2,382 MW
21 Oct, 23:002,119 MW2,249 MW
22 Oct, 00:002,113 MW2,155 MW
22 Oct, 01:002,068 MW2,093 MW
22 Oct, 02:002,042 MW2,044 MW
22 Oct, 03:002,009 MW2,025 MW
22 Oct, 04:002,087 MW2,042 MW
22 Oct, 05:002,134 MW2,152 MW
22 Oct, 06:002,379 MW2,430 MW
22 Oct, 07:002,625 MW2,712 MW
22 Oct, 08:002,702 MW2,780 MW
22 Oct, 09:002,726 MW2,765 MW
22 Oct, 10:002,856 MW2,795 MW
22 Oct, 11:002,916 MW2,764 MW
22 Oct, 12:002,881 MW2,742 MW
22 Oct, 13:002,786 MW2,729 MW
22 Oct, 14:002,685 MW2,712 MW
22 Oct, 15:002,579 MW2,715 MW
22 Oct, 16:002,608 MW2,722 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,707 MW2,810 MW
22 Oct, 18:002,670 MW2,849 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,633 MW2,832 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,586 MW2,733 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,429 MW2,605 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,305 MW2,452 MW
22 Oct, 23:002,174 MW2,313 MW
23 Oct, 00:002,119 MW2,268 MW
23 Oct, 01:002,041 MW2,175 MW
23 Oct, 02:002,047 MW2,151 MW
23 Oct, 03:002,026 MW2,135 MW
23 Oct, 04:002,071 MW2,136 MW
23 Oct, 05:002,126 MW2,234 MW
23 Oct, 06:002,406 MW2,501 MW
23 Oct, 07:002,650 MW2,783 MW
23 Oct, 08:002,688 MW2,847 MW
23 Oct, 09:002,641 MW2,836 MW
23 Oct, 10:002,606 MW2,809 MW
23 Oct, 11:002,500 MW2,773 MW
23 Oct, 12:002,460 MW2,747 MW
23 Oct, 13:002,372 MW2,714 MW
23 Oct, 14:002,297 MW2,659 MW
23 Oct, 15:002,372 MW2,619 MW
23 Oct, 16:002,414 MW2,617 MW
23 Oct, 17:002,492 MW2,698 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,518 MW2,750 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,391 MW2,708 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,286 MW2,564 MW
23 Oct, 21:002,142 MW2,434 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,995 MW2,301 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,993 MW2,194 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,972 MW2,089 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,917 MW2,020 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,834 MW1,996 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,859 MW1,971 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,870 MW1,964 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,817 MW1,980 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,882 MW2,017 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,940 MW2,093 MW
24 Oct, 08:002,114 MW2,211 MW
24 Oct, 09:002,208 MW2,268 MW
24 Oct, 10:002,289 MW2,301 MW
24 Oct, 11:002,340 MW2,314 MW
24 Oct, 12:002,419 MW2,334 MW
24 Oct, 13:002,420 MW2,331 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,410 MW2,321 MW
24 Oct, 15:002,395 MW2,337 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,397 MW2,416 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,453 MW2,526 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,538 MW2,603 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,484 MW2,572 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,366 MW2,471 MW
24 Oct, 21:002,247 MW2,364 MW
24 Oct, 22:002,122 MW2,256 MW
24 Oct, 23:002,112 MW2,174 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,959 MW2,064 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,895 MW2,029 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,943 MW2,010 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,985 MW1,999 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,889 MW1,989 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,836 MW2,061 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,786 MW2,135 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,870 MW2,187 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,970 MW2,184 MW
25 Oct, 08:002,089 MW2,259 MW
25 Oct, 09:002,207 MW2,356 MW
25 Oct, 10:002,244 MW2,457 MW
25 Oct, 11:002,348 MW2,455 MW
25 Oct, 12:002,351 MW2,467 MW
25 Oct, 13:002,361 MW2,416 MW
25 Oct, 14:002,325 MW2,404 MW
25 Oct, 15:002,552 MW2,424 MW
25 Oct, 16:002,599 MW2,510 MW
25 Oct, 17:002,644 MW2,626 MW
25 Oct, 18:002,553 MW2,623 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,429 MW2,561 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,295 MW2,446 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,244 MW2,309 MW
25 Oct, 22:002,202 MW2,210 MW
25 Oct, 23:002,294 MW2,127 MW
26 Oct, 00:002,181 MW2,051 MW
26 Oct, 01:002,161 MW2,056 MW
26 Oct, 02:002,122 MW2,024 MW
26 Oct, 03:002,035 MW2,028 MW
26 Oct, 04:002,086 MW2,116 MW
26 Oct, 05:002,157 MW2,324 MW
26 Oct, 06:002,468 MW2,628 MW
26 Oct, 07:002,588 MW2,783 MW
26 Oct, 08:002,663 MW2,817 MW
26 Oct, 09:002,705 MW2,823 MW
26 Oct, 10:002,828 MW2,833 MW
26 Oct, 11:002,730 MW2,823 MW
26 Oct, 12:002,629 MW2,803 MW
26 Oct, 13:002,624 MW2,756 MW
26 Oct, 14:002,621 MW2,731 MW
26 Oct, 15:002,677 MW2,736 MW
26 Oct, 16:002,750 MW2,788 MW
26 Oct, 17:002,849 MW2,867 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,845 MW2,844 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,740 MW2,745 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,482 MW2,619 MW
26 Oct, 21:002,275 MW2,458 MW
26 Oct, 22:002,269 MW2,320 MW
26 Oct, 23:002,239 MW2,210 MW
27 Oct, 00:002,067 MW2,169 MW
27 Oct, 01:002,041 MW2,147 MW
27 Oct, 02:002,072 MW2,101 MW
27 Oct, 03:002,024 MW2,077 MW
27 Oct, 04:002,080 MW2,150 MW
27 Oct, 05:002,285 MW2,326 MW
27 Oct, 06:002,489 MW2,614 MW
27 Oct, 07:002,507 MW2,771 MW
27 Oct, 08:002,604 MW2,795 MW
27 Oct, 09:002,624 MW2,787 MW
27 Oct, 10:002,645 MW2,808 MW
27 Oct, 11:002,744 MW2,792 MW
27 Oct, 12:002,772 MW2,770 MW
27 Oct, 13:002,710 MW2,754 MW
27 Oct, 14:002,737 MW2,744 MW
27 Oct, 15:002,648 MW2,741 MW
27 Oct, 16:002,706 MW2,784 MW
27 Oct, 17:002,775 MW2,851 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,724 MW2,809 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,657 MW2,722 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,641 MW2,580 MW
27 Oct, 21:002,465 MW2,435 MW
27 Oct, 22:002,285 MW2,281 MW
27 Oct, 23:002,212 MW2,165 MW
28 Oct, 00:002,108 MW2,092 MW
28 Oct, 01:002,137 MW2,046 MW
28 Oct, 02:002,108 MW1,996 MW
28 Oct, 03:002,020 MW1,983 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,977 MW2,054 MW
28 Oct, 05:002,045 MW2,234 MW
28 Oct, 06:002,333 MW2,523 MW
28 Oct, 07:002,483 MW2,704 MW
28 Oct, 08:002,553 MW2,733 MW
28 Oct, 09:002,620 MW2,718 MW
28 Oct, 10:002,585 MW2,686 MW
28 Oct, 11:002,589 MW2,676 MW
28 Oct, 12:002,521 MW2,642 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (683 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se4/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se4/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se4_2026,
  title = {{Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se4/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se4/

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