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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy South was off by 11.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 27% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 943 MW (36.6%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy South was off by 11.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 27% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 943 MW (36.6%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy South came 41 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 245 MW, against average demand of 2,190 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 41% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error11.9%
Bias-0.2%
Hours within 5%27%
Worst miss943 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-47 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 943 MW (36.6%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,632 MW, reported 2,575 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy South day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy South over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy South over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:002,555 MW2,165 MW
21 Oct, 15:002,297 MW2,233 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,388 MW2,230 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,676 MW2,247 MW
21 Oct, 18:003,004 MW2,507 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,960 MW2,632 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,911 MW2,615 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,772 MW2,563 MW
21 Oct, 22:002,682 MW2,409 MW
21 Oct, 23:002,470 MW2,170 MW
22 Oct, 00:002,213 MW2,075 MW
22 Oct, 01:002,052 MW1,791 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,995 MW1,849 MW
22 Oct, 03:002,046 MW1,850 MW
22 Oct, 04:002,088 MW1,821 MW
22 Oct, 05:002,135 MW1,871 MW
22 Oct, 06:002,194 MW2,108 MW
22 Oct, 07:002,321 MW2,440 MW
22 Oct, 08:002,339 MW2,477 MW
22 Oct, 09:002,271 MW2,335 MW
22 Oct, 10:002,284 MW2,310 MW
22 Oct, 11:002,419 MW2,152 MW
22 Oct, 12:002,456 MW2,230 MW
22 Oct, 13:002,309 MW2,170 MW
22 Oct, 14:002,295 MW2,190 MW
22 Oct, 15:002,393 MW2,067 MW
22 Oct, 16:002,387 MW2,196 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,683 MW2,525 MW
22 Oct, 18:002,839 MW2,805 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,839 MW2,911 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,812 MW2,909 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,514 MW2,753 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,243 MW2,546 MW
22 Oct, 23:002,086 MW2,281 MW
23 Oct, 00:002,044 MW2,003 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,917 MW1,789 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,816 MW1,888 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,811 MW1,839 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,828 MW1,772 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,967 MW1,823 MW
23 Oct, 06:002,289 MW2,055 MW
23 Oct, 07:002,497 MW2,384 MW
23 Oct, 08:002,470 MW2,409 MW
23 Oct, 09:002,437 MW2,335 MW
23 Oct, 10:002,201 MW2,284 MW
23 Oct, 11:002,040 MW2,125 MW
23 Oct, 12:002,140 MW2,231 MW
23 Oct, 13:002,148 MW2,183 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,978 MW2,173 MW
23 Oct, 15:002,028 MW2,129 MW
23 Oct, 16:002,131 MW2,321 MW
23 Oct, 17:002,540 MW2,587 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,795 MW2,762 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,819 MW2,867 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,833 MW2,829 MW
23 Oct, 21:002,767 MW2,650 MW
23 Oct, 22:002,593 MW2,511 MW
23 Oct, 23:002,372 MW2,226 MW
24 Oct, 00:002,172 MW1,987 MW
24 Oct, 01:002,110 MW1,760 MW
24 Oct, 02:002,058 MW1,798 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,990 MW1,783 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,918 MW1,732 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,855 MW1,763 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,995 MW1,838 MW
24 Oct, 07:002,069 MW2,060 MW
24 Oct, 08:002,195 MW2,227 MW
24 Oct, 09:002,150 MW2,206 MW
24 Oct, 10:002,049 MW2,057 MW
24 Oct, 11:002,242 MW2,015 MW
24 Oct, 12:002,396 MW2,120 MW
24 Oct, 13:002,301 MW2,070 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,067 MW1,922 MW
24 Oct, 15:002,236 MW1,865 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,345 MW2,023 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,450 MW2,285 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,732 MW2,535 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,895 MW2,510 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,614 MW2,505 MW
24 Oct, 21:002,363 MW2,364 MW
24 Oct, 22:002,253 MW2,313 MW
24 Oct, 23:002,204 MW2,138 MW
25 Oct, 00:002,075 MW1,761 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,739 MW1,637 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,422 MW1,591 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,626 MW1,603 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,627 MW1,410 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,586 MW1,395 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,600 MW1,437 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,615 MW1,630 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,626 MW1,611 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,717 MW1,568 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,889 MW1,562 MW
25 Oct, 10:002,056 MW1,509 MW
25 Oct, 11:002,197 MW1,461 MW
25 Oct, 12:002,122 MW1,654 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,908 MW1,623 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,909 MW1,489 MW
25 Oct, 15:002,051 MW1,464 MW
25 Oct, 16:002,197 MW1,481 MW
25 Oct, 17:002,474 MW2,008 MW
25 Oct, 18:002,559 MW2,258 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,469 MW2,136 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,487 MW2,095 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,406 MW2,068 MW
25 Oct, 22:002,201 MW2,100 MW
25 Oct, 23:002,007 MW1,928 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,568 MW1,783 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,301 MW1,743 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,252 MW1,720 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,240 MW1,697 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,201 MW1,625 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,281 MW1,793 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,523 MW1,978 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,871 MW2,280 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,973 MW2,283 MW
26 Oct, 09:002,163 MW2,225 MW
26 Oct, 10:002,481 MW2,290 MW
26 Oct, 11:002,287 MW2,253 MW
26 Oct, 12:002,430 MW2,232 MW
26 Oct, 13:002,520 MW2,153 MW
26 Oct, 14:002,657 MW2,280 MW
26 Oct, 15:002,788 MW2,408 MW
26 Oct, 16:002,917 MW2,548 MW
26 Oct, 17:003,049 MW2,696 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,924 MW2,760 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,858 MW2,760 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,819 MW2,688 MW
26 Oct, 21:002,775 MW2,551 MW
26 Oct, 22:002,607 MW2,295 MW
26 Oct, 23:002,446 MW2,050 MW
27 Oct, 00:002,420 MW1,883 MW
27 Oct, 01:002,211 MW1,852 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,983 MW1,812 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,980 MW1,770 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,943 MW1,725 MW
27 Oct, 05:002,026 MW1,838 MW
27 Oct, 06:002,240 MW2,063 MW
27 Oct, 07:002,419 MW2,273 MW
27 Oct, 08:002,440 MW2,160 MW
27 Oct, 09:002,412 MW2,108 MW
27 Oct, 10:002,442 MW2,165 MW
27 Oct, 11:002,321 MW2,220 MW
27 Oct, 12:002,483 MW2,188 MW
27 Oct, 13:002,435 MW2,140 MW
27 Oct, 14:002,368 MW2,200 MW
27 Oct, 15:002,497 MW2,333 MW
27 Oct, 16:002,633 MW2,522 MW
27 Oct, 17:002,889 MW2,748 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,902 MW2,788 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,833 MW2,800 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,780 MW2,766 MW
27 Oct, 21:002,722 MW2,607 MW
27 Oct, 22:002,533 MW2,338 MW
27 Oct, 23:002,330 MW2,080 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,929 MW1,765 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,628 MW1,637 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,647 MW1,597 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,576 MW1,708 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,590 MW1,706 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,704 MW1,823 MW
28 Oct, 06:001,951 MW1,942 MW
28 Oct, 07:002,219 MW2,160 MW
28 Oct, 08:002,340 MW2,110 MW
28 Oct, 09:002,508 MW2,115 MW
28 Oct, 10:002,574 MW2,164 MW
28 Oct, 11:002,621 MW2,338 MW
28 Oct, 12:002,681 MW2,253 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sud/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sud/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_sud_2026,
  title = {{Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sud/}
}

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