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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway North (NO4) was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 194 MW (8.3%) too low at 2 Oct 2026, 18:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway North (NO4) was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 194 MW (8.3%) too low at 2 Oct 2026, 18:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway North (NO4) came 15 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 57 MW, against average demand of 2,260 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 22% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.5%
Bias-1.8%
Hours within 5%92%
Worst miss194 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-42 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 194 MW (8.3%) too low at 2 Oct 2026, 18:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,136 MW, reported 2,329 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway North (NO4) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway North (NO4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway North (NO4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:002,356 MW2,318 MW
21 Oct, 15:002,413 MW2,331 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,439 MW2,356 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,462 MW2,329 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,489 MW2,325 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,478 MW2,330 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,486 MW2,325 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,462 MW2,316 MW
21 Oct, 22:002,409 MW2,282 MW
21 Oct, 23:002,348 MW2,213 MW
22 Oct, 00:002,305 MW2,230 MW
22 Oct, 01:002,247 MW2,199 MW
22 Oct, 02:002,232 MW2,185 MW
22 Oct, 03:002,201 MW2,165 MW
22 Oct, 04:002,212 MW2,172 MW
22 Oct, 05:002,225 MW2,205 MW
22 Oct, 06:002,245 MW2,265 MW
22 Oct, 07:002,340 MW2,358 MW
22 Oct, 08:002,404 MW2,389 MW
22 Oct, 09:002,369 MW2,382 MW
22 Oct, 10:002,375 MW2,363 MW
22 Oct, 11:002,320 MW2,357 MW
22 Oct, 12:002,286 MW2,327 MW
22 Oct, 13:002,303 MW2,316 MW
22 Oct, 14:002,283 MW2,338 MW
22 Oct, 15:002,327 MW2,347 MW
22 Oct, 16:002,340 MW2,349 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,383 MW2,341 MW
22 Oct, 18:002,380 MW2,333 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,395 MW2,356 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,393 MW2,342 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,347 MW2,334 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,300 MW2,285 MW
22 Oct, 23:002,238 MW2,228 MW
23 Oct, 00:002,173 MW2,216 MW
23 Oct, 01:002,173 MW2,185 MW
23 Oct, 02:002,119 MW2,155 MW
23 Oct, 03:002,117 MW2,127 MW
23 Oct, 04:002,101 MW2,112 MW
23 Oct, 05:002,118 MW2,143 MW
23 Oct, 06:002,201 MW2,209 MW
23 Oct, 07:002,297 MW2,280 MW
23 Oct, 08:002,340 MW2,330 MW
23 Oct, 09:002,347 MW2,335 MW
23 Oct, 10:002,316 MW2,292 MW
23 Oct, 11:002,359 MW2,310 MW
23 Oct, 12:002,342 MW2,292 MW
23 Oct, 13:002,304 MW2,275 MW
23 Oct, 14:002,318 MW2,298 MW
23 Oct, 15:002,324 MW2,316 MW
23 Oct, 16:002,338 MW2,333 MW
23 Oct, 17:002,324 MW2,310 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,287 MW2,306 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,313 MW2,321 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,271 MW2,318 MW
23 Oct, 21:002,234 MW2,273 MW
23 Oct, 22:002,202 MW2,240 MW
23 Oct, 23:002,172 MW2,193 MW
24 Oct, 00:002,127 MW2,119 MW
24 Oct, 01:002,111 MW2,104 MW
24 Oct, 02:002,096 MW2,055 MW
24 Oct, 03:002,046 MW2,043 MW
24 Oct, 04:002,011 MW2,019 MW
24 Oct, 05:002,062 MW2,040 MW
24 Oct, 06:002,061 MW2,071 MW
24 Oct, 07:002,095 MW2,125 MW
24 Oct, 08:002,185 MW2,161 MW
24 Oct, 09:002,253 MW2,180 MW
24 Oct, 10:002,282 MW2,183 MW
24 Oct, 11:002,274 MW2,201 MW
24 Oct, 12:002,261 MW2,189 MW
24 Oct, 13:002,251 MW2,180 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,252 MW2,199 MW
24 Oct, 15:002,228 MW2,198 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,252 MW2,211 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,285 MW2,217 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,281 MW2,216 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,274 MW2,236 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,264 MW2,229 MW
24 Oct, 21:002,232 MW2,199 MW
24 Oct, 22:002,220 MW2,190 MW
24 Oct, 23:002,182 MW2,139 MW
25 Oct, 00:002,145 MW2,141 MW
25 Oct, 01:002,109 MW2,117 MW
25 Oct, 02:002,091 MW2,100 MW
25 Oct, 02:002,077 MW2,103 MW
25 Oct, 03:002,054 MW2,079 MW
25 Oct, 04:002,066 MW2,081 MW
25 Oct, 05:002,090 MW2,095 MW
25 Oct, 06:002,113 MW2,101 MW
25 Oct, 07:002,139 MW2,151 MW
25 Oct, 08:002,166 MW2,167 MW
25 Oct, 09:002,207 MW2,160 MW
25 Oct, 10:002,214 MW2,177 MW
25 Oct, 11:002,205 MW2,168 MW
25 Oct, 12:002,185 MW2,161 MW
25 Oct, 13:002,168 MW2,162 MW
25 Oct, 14:002,209 MW2,177 MW
25 Oct, 15:002,314 MW2,202 MW
25 Oct, 16:002,351 MW2,198 MW
25 Oct, 17:002,334 MW2,185 MW
25 Oct, 18:002,293 MW2,205 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,322 MW2,183 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,336 MW2,194 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,281 MW2,185 MW
25 Oct, 22:002,285 MW2,161 MW
25 Oct, 23:002,245 MWn/a
26 Oct, 00:002,190 MW2,091 MW
26 Oct, 01:002,137 MW2,087 MW
26 Oct, 02:002,100 MW2,062 MW
26 Oct, 03:002,068 MW2,067 MW
26 Oct, 04:002,152 MW2,076 MW
26 Oct, 05:002,175 MW2,104 MW
26 Oct, 06:002,220 MW2,159 MW
26 Oct, 07:002,331 MW2,258 MW
26 Oct, 08:002,381 MW2,285 MW
26 Oct, 09:002,379 MW2,287 MW
26 Oct, 10:002,407 MW2,271 MW
26 Oct, 11:002,369 MW2,261 MW
26 Oct, 12:002,333 MW2,253 MW
26 Oct, 13:002,275 MW2,260 MW
26 Oct, 14:002,316 MW2,264 MW
26 Oct, 15:002,372 MW2,270 MW
26 Oct, 16:002,397 MW2,274 MW
26 Oct, 17:002,416 MW2,254 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,378 MW2,222 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,285 MW2,239 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,325 MW2,223 MW
26 Oct, 21:002,297 MW2,217 MW
26 Oct, 22:002,223 MW2,180 MW
26 Oct, 23:002,097 MW2,137 MW
27 Oct, 00:002,109 MW2,179 MW
27 Oct, 01:002,097 MW2,144 MW
27 Oct, 02:002,063 MW2,114 MW
27 Oct, 03:002,052 MW2,114 MW
27 Oct, 04:002,046 MW2,117 MW
27 Oct, 05:002,074 MW2,128 MW
27 Oct, 06:002,156 MW2,195 MW
27 Oct, 07:002,234 MW2,276 MW
27 Oct, 08:002,297 MW2,322 MW
27 Oct, 09:002,307 MW2,314 MW
27 Oct, 10:002,277 MW2,289 MW
27 Oct, 11:002,286 MW2,292 MW
27 Oct, 12:002,282 MW2,262 MW
27 Oct, 13:002,292 MW2,286 MW
27 Oct, 14:002,369 MW2,291 MW
27 Oct, 15:002,396 MW2,313 MW
27 Oct, 16:002,443 MW2,323 MW
27 Oct, 17:002,375 MW2,297 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,405 MW2,299 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,421 MW2,315 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,420 MW2,299 MW
27 Oct, 21:002,388 MW2,276 MW
27 Oct, 22:002,345 MW2,232 MW
27 Oct, 23:002,268 MW2,192 MW
28 Oct, 00:002,193 MW2,125 MW
28 Oct, 01:002,167 MW2,105 MW
28 Oct, 02:002,152 MW2,074 MW
28 Oct, 03:002,144 MW2,080 MW
28 Oct, 04:002,136 MW2,085 MW
28 Oct, 05:002,156 MW2,102 MW
28 Oct, 06:002,250 MW2,146 MW
28 Oct, 07:002,336 MW2,234 MW
28 Oct, 08:002,332 MW2,258 MW
28 Oct, 09:002,349 MW2,266 MW
28 Oct, 10:002,274 MW2,244 MW
28 Oct, 11:002,312 MW2,263 MW
28 Oct, 12:002,350 MW2,249 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no4/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no4/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no4_2026,
  title = {{Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no4/}
}

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