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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) was off by 2.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 93% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,468 MW (20.5%) too low at 5 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) was off by 2.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 93% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,468 MW (20.5%) too low at 5 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden South-Central (SE3) came 11 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 208 MW, against average demand of 9,157 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 48% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.3%
Bias-0.3%
Hours within 5%93%
Worst miss2,468 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-30 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 2,468 MW (20.5%) too low at 5 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 9,540 MW, reported 12,008 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden South-Central (SE3) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South-Central (SE3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:0010,484 MW10,169 MW
21 Oct, 15:0010,331 MW10,206 MW
21 Oct, 16:0010,331 MW10,245 MW
21 Oct, 17:0010,599 MW10,543 MW
21 Oct, 18:0010,523 MW10,633 MW
21 Oct, 19:0010,244 MW10,501 MW
21 Oct, 20:0010,012 MW10,101 MW
21 Oct, 21:009,666 MW9,610 MW
21 Oct, 22:008,930 MW9,110 MW
21 Oct, 23:008,377 MW8,589 MW
22 Oct, 00:008,423 MW8,183 MW
22 Oct, 01:008,234 MW7,982 MW
22 Oct, 02:008,176 MW7,861 MW
22 Oct, 03:008,137 MW7,752 MW
22 Oct, 04:008,150 MW7,805 MW
22 Oct, 05:008,266 MW8,104 MW
22 Oct, 06:009,160 MW9,020 MW
22 Oct, 07:0010,014 MW9,896 MW
22 Oct, 08:0010,191 MW10,078 MW
22 Oct, 09:0010,326 MW10,111 MW
22 Oct, 10:0010,526 MW10,158 MW
22 Oct, 11:0010,610 MW10,115 MW
22 Oct, 12:0010,564 MW10,074 MW
22 Oct, 13:0010,541 MW10,008 MW
22 Oct, 14:0010,318 MW9,973 MW
22 Oct, 15:0010,609 MW10,001 MW
22 Oct, 16:0010,399 MW10,087 MW
22 Oct, 17:0010,288 MW10,380 MW
22 Oct, 18:0010,123 MW10,434 MW
22 Oct, 19:009,941 MW10,340 MW
22 Oct, 20:0010,060 MW10,028 MW
22 Oct, 21:009,625 MW9,617 MW
22 Oct, 22:009,539 MW9,082 MW
22 Oct, 23:009,154 MW8,596 MW
23 Oct, 00:008,797 MW8,233 MW
23 Oct, 01:008,447 MW8,100 MW
23 Oct, 02:008,346 MW7,915 MW
23 Oct, 03:008,306 MW7,839 MW
23 Oct, 04:008,485 MW7,856 MW
23 Oct, 05:008,651 MW8,160 MW
23 Oct, 06:009,409 MW9,070 MW
23 Oct, 07:0010,245 MW9,946 MW
23 Oct, 08:0010,332 MW10,166 MW
23 Oct, 09:0010,245 MW10,224 MW
23 Oct, 10:0010,145 MW10,240 MW
23 Oct, 11:009,992 MW10,188 MW
23 Oct, 12:009,906 MW10,142 MW
23 Oct, 13:009,847 MW10,017 MW
23 Oct, 14:009,535 MW9,930 MW
23 Oct, 15:009,564 MW9,894 MW
23 Oct, 16:009,702 MW9,941 MW
23 Oct, 17:0010,059 MW10,198 MW
23 Oct, 18:0010,110 MW10,292 MW
23 Oct, 19:009,843 MW10,145 MW
23 Oct, 20:009,524 MW9,776 MW
23 Oct, 21:009,191 MW9,344 MW
23 Oct, 22:008,886 MW8,920 MW
23 Oct, 23:008,578 MW8,566 MW
24 Oct, 00:008,295 MW8,336 MW
24 Oct, 01:008,062 MW8,113 MW
24 Oct, 02:007,945 MW7,944 MW
24 Oct, 03:007,916 MW7,832 MW
24 Oct, 04:007,820 MW7,787 MW
24 Oct, 05:007,800 MW7,741 MW
24 Oct, 06:007,892 MW7,902 MW
24 Oct, 07:007,958 MW8,190 MW
24 Oct, 08:008,316 MW8,562 MW
24 Oct, 09:008,660 MW8,831 MW
24 Oct, 10:008,782 MW8,976 MW
24 Oct, 11:008,994 MW8,998 MW
24 Oct, 12:008,970 MW8,960 MW
24 Oct, 13:008,989 MW8,921 MW
24 Oct, 14:009,024 MW8,870 MW
24 Oct, 15:009,018 MW8,879 MW
24 Oct, 16:009,102 MW9,044 MW
24 Oct, 17:009,449 MW9,376 MW
24 Oct, 18:009,577 MW9,596 MW
24 Oct, 19:009,248 MW9,532 MW
24 Oct, 20:008,859 MW9,199 MW
24 Oct, 21:008,662 MW8,857 MW
24 Oct, 22:008,623 MW8,528 MW
24 Oct, 23:008,360 MW8,247 MW
25 Oct, 00:007,755 MW7,935 MW
25 Oct, 01:007,578 MW7,784 MW
25 Oct, 02:007,752 MW7,646 MW
25 Oct, 02:007,705 MW7,600 MW
25 Oct, 03:007,552 MW7,538 MW
25 Oct, 04:007,460 MW7,653 MW
25 Oct, 05:007,542 MW7,955 MW
25 Oct, 06:007,938 MW8,166 MW
25 Oct, 07:008,214 MW8,235 MW
25 Oct, 08:008,777 MW8,487 MW
25 Oct, 09:009,142 MW8,816 MW
25 Oct, 10:009,277 MW9,070 MW
25 Oct, 11:009,368 MW9,212 MW
25 Oct, 12:009,501 MW9,246 MW
25 Oct, 13:009,681 MW9,302 MW
25 Oct, 14:009,826 MW9,354 MW
25 Oct, 15:0010,042 MW9,564 MW
25 Oct, 16:0010,251 MW9,882 MW
25 Oct, 17:0010,573 MW10,202 MW
25 Oct, 18:0010,430 MW10,123 MW
25 Oct, 19:0010,165 MW9,794 MW
25 Oct, 20:009,908 MW9,427 MW
25 Oct, 21:009,342 MW8,970 MW
25 Oct, 22:008,760 MW8,647 MW
25 Oct, 23:008,420 MW8,280 MW
26 Oct, 00:008,225 MW8,026 MW
26 Oct, 01:008,093 MW7,984 MW
26 Oct, 02:007,937 MW7,832 MW
26 Oct, 03:007,801 MW7,828 MW
26 Oct, 04:007,844 MW8,103 MW
26 Oct, 05:008,379 MW8,815 MW
26 Oct, 06:009,407 MW9,768 MW
26 Oct, 07:009,980 MW10,179 MW
26 Oct, 08:0010,148 MW10,197 MW
26 Oct, 09:0010,331 MW10,207 MW
26 Oct, 10:0010,474 MW10,289 MW
26 Oct, 11:0010,495 MW10,264 MW
26 Oct, 12:0010,419 MW10,179 MW
26 Oct, 13:0010,185 MW10,168 MW
26 Oct, 14:0010,282 MW10,169 MW
26 Oct, 15:0010,393 MW10,249 MW
26 Oct, 16:0010,706 MW10,511 MW
26 Oct, 17:0011,031 MW10,696 MW
26 Oct, 18:0010,823 MW10,528 MW
26 Oct, 19:0010,276 MW10,202 MW
26 Oct, 20:009,875 MW9,841 MW
26 Oct, 21:009,597 MW9,366 MW
26 Oct, 22:009,263 MW8,847 MW
26 Oct, 23:008,904 MW8,386 MW
27 Oct, 00:008,314 MW8,150 MW
27 Oct, 01:008,406 MW8,049 MW
27 Oct, 02:008,535 MW7,953 MW
27 Oct, 03:008,040 MW7,947 MW
27 Oct, 04:008,157 MW8,220 MW
27 Oct, 05:008,577 MW8,909 MW
27 Oct, 06:009,461 MW9,772 MW
27 Oct, 07:0010,245 MW10,143 MW
27 Oct, 08:0010,473 MW10,223 MW
27 Oct, 09:0010,450 MW10,135 MW
27 Oct, 10:0010,400 MW10,149 MW
27 Oct, 11:0010,312 MW10,129 MW
27 Oct, 12:0010,408 MW10,105 MW
27 Oct, 13:0010,503 MW10,037 MW
27 Oct, 14:0010,352 MW10,068 MW
27 Oct, 15:0010,290 MW10,193 MW
27 Oct, 16:0010,690 MW10,412 MW
27 Oct, 17:0011,025 MW10,605 MW
27 Oct, 18:0010,809 MW10,456 MW
27 Oct, 19:0010,567 MW10,105 MW
27 Oct, 20:0010,464 MW9,660 MW
27 Oct, 21:0010,225 MW9,117 MW
27 Oct, 22:009,725 MW8,625 MW
27 Oct, 23:009,053 MW8,158 MW
28 Oct, 00:008,515 MW7,990 MW
28 Oct, 01:008,085 MW7,863 MW
28 Oct, 02:007,932 MW7,727 MW
28 Oct, 03:008,088 MW7,667 MW
28 Oct, 04:007,909 MW7,865 MW
28 Oct, 05:008,329 MW8,473 MW
28 Oct, 06:009,220 MW9,364 MW
28 Oct, 07:009,852 MW9,840 MW
28 Oct, 08:0010,085 MW9,895 MW
28 Oct, 09:009,918 MW9,931 MW
28 Oct, 10:009,918 MW9,955 MW
28 Oct, 11:009,913 MW9,948 MW
28 Oct, 12:009,857 MW9,881 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se3/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se3/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se3_2026,
  title = {{Sweden South-Central (SE3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se3/}
}

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