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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Finland was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 70% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,598 MW (13.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Helsinki).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Finland was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 70% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,598 MW (13.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Finland came 31 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 364 MW, against average demand of 9,557 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 45% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.8%
Bias-0.8%
Hours within 5%70%
Worst miss1,598 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-95 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,598 MW (13.6%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 20:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 10,169 MW, reported 11,767 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00)
Finland day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Finland over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 21 Oct, 16:0022 Oct, 16:0023 Oct, 16:0024 Oct, 16:0025 Oct, 15:0026 Oct, 15:0027 Oct, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Finland over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 16:009,807 MW9,789 MW
21 Oct, 17:0010,228 MW9,923 MW
21 Oct, 18:0010,962 MW10,142 MW
21 Oct, 19:0011,288 MW10,310 MW
21 Oct, 20:0011,214 MW10,217 MW
21 Oct, 21:0010,918 MW10,053 MW
21 Oct, 22:0010,901 MW10,049 MW
21 Oct, 23:0010,614 MW9,893 MW
22 Oct, 00:0010,516 MW9,577 MW
22 Oct, 01:0010,219 MW9,813 MW
22 Oct, 02:0010,144 MW9,628 MW
22 Oct, 03:009,969 MW9,474 MW
22 Oct, 04:009,843 MW9,418 MW
22 Oct, 05:009,856 MW9,589 MW
22 Oct, 06:0010,518 MW10,092 MW
22 Oct, 07:0010,803 MW10,346 MW
22 Oct, 08:0010,833 MW10,418 MW
22 Oct, 09:0010,951 MW10,473 MW
22 Oct, 10:0010,865 MW10,459 MW
22 Oct, 11:0010,717 MW10,391 MW
22 Oct, 12:0010,604 MW10,274 MW
22 Oct, 13:0010,483 MW10,076 MW
22 Oct, 14:0010,425 MW9,985 MW
22 Oct, 15:0010,271 MW9,975 MW
22 Oct, 16:0010,160 MW9,959 MW
22 Oct, 17:0010,229 MW10,118 MW
22 Oct, 18:0010,680 MW10,284 MW
22 Oct, 19:0010,822 MW10,522 MW
22 Oct, 20:0010,587 MW10,365 MW
22 Oct, 21:0010,388 MW10,153 MW
22 Oct, 22:0010,428 MW10,090 MW
22 Oct, 23:0010,110 MW9,840 MW
23 Oct, 00:009,785 MW9,453 MW
23 Oct, 01:009,740 MW9,641 MW
23 Oct, 02:009,657 MW9,510 MW
23 Oct, 03:009,544 MW9,496 MW
23 Oct, 04:009,391 MW9,452 MW
23 Oct, 05:009,543 MW9,614 MW
23 Oct, 06:0010,060 MW10,147 MW
23 Oct, 07:0010,339 MW10,410 MW
23 Oct, 08:0010,344 MW10,492 MW
23 Oct, 09:0010,352 MW10,468 MW
23 Oct, 10:0010,246 MW10,423 MW
23 Oct, 11:0010,417 MW10,462 MW
23 Oct, 12:0010,229 MW10,327 MW
23 Oct, 13:0010,145 MW10,183 MW
23 Oct, 14:0010,045 MW10,106 MW
23 Oct, 15:009,717 MW10,006 MW
23 Oct, 16:009,642 MW10,058 MW
23 Oct, 17:009,885 MW10,196 MW
23 Oct, 18:0010,307 MW10,473 MW
23 Oct, 19:0010,400 MW10,458 MW
23 Oct, 20:0010,370 MW10,328 MW
23 Oct, 21:0010,065 MW10,130 MW
23 Oct, 22:0010,017 MW10,087 MW
23 Oct, 23:009,679 MW9,835 MW
24 Oct, 00:009,502 MW9,413 MW
24 Oct, 01:009,116 MW9,108 MW
24 Oct, 02:009,035 MW8,948 MW
24 Oct, 03:008,869 MW8,877 MW
24 Oct, 04:008,801 MW8,809 MW
24 Oct, 05:008,841 MW8,783 MW
24 Oct, 06:008,871 MW8,955 MW
24 Oct, 07:009,021 MW9,145 MW
24 Oct, 08:008,951 MW9,226 MW
24 Oct, 09:008,991 MW9,363 MW
24 Oct, 10:009,139 MW9,457 MW
24 Oct, 11:009,243 MW9,556 MW
24 Oct, 12:009,193 MW9,494 MW
24 Oct, 13:009,290 MW9,391 MW
24 Oct, 14:009,356 MW9,317 MW
24 Oct, 15:009,264 MW9,226 MW
24 Oct, 16:009,268 MW9,300 MW
24 Oct, 17:009,454 MW9,495 MW
24 Oct, 18:009,874 MW9,779 MW
24 Oct, 19:0010,110 MW9,858 MW
24 Oct, 20:009,952 MW9,802 MW
24 Oct, 21:009,964 MW9,605 MW
24 Oct, 22:0010,084 MW9,641 MW
24 Oct, 23:0010,051 MW9,508 MW
25 Oct, 00:009,639 MW9,192 MW
25 Oct, 01:009,289 MW9,190 MW
25 Oct, 02:009,182 MW8,986 MW
25 Oct, 03:009,155 MW8,869 MW
25 Oct, 03:009,038 MW8,835 MW
25 Oct, 04:009,182 MW8,767 MW
25 Oct, 05:009,175 MW8,808 MW
25 Oct, 06:009,368 MW8,982 MW
25 Oct, 07:009,471 MW9,110 MW
25 Oct, 08:009,571 MW9,162 MW
25 Oct, 09:009,769 MW9,257 MW
25 Oct, 10:009,897 MW9,387 MW
25 Oct, 11:0010,064 MW9,475 MW
25 Oct, 12:0010,052 MW9,423 MW
25 Oct, 13:009,968 MW9,409 MW
25 Oct, 14:009,850 MW9,375 MW
25 Oct, 15:009,694 MW9,368 MW
25 Oct, 16:009,844 MW9,418 MW
25 Oct, 17:0010,234 MW9,649 MW
25 Oct, 18:0010,424 MW9,837 MW
25 Oct, 19:0010,321 MW9,935 MW
25 Oct, 20:0010,075 MW9,827 MW
25 Oct, 21:009,807 MW9,692 MW
25 Oct, 22:009,794 MW9,721 MW
25 Oct, 23:009,553 MW9,518 MW
26 Oct, 00:009,196 MW9,272 MW
26 Oct, 01:008,884 MW9,160 MW
26 Oct, 02:008,818 MW8,967 MW
26 Oct, 03:008,827 MW8,948 MW
26 Oct, 04:008,949 MW9,014 MW
26 Oct, 05:009,111 MW9,271 MW
26 Oct, 06:009,803 MW9,909 MW
26 Oct, 07:0010,218 MW10,302 MW
26 Oct, 08:0010,467 MW10,401 MW
26 Oct, 09:0010,627 MW10,446 MW
26 Oct, 10:0010,757 MW10,399 MW
26 Oct, 11:0010,693 MW10,555 MW
26 Oct, 12:0010,596 MW10,485 MW
26 Oct, 13:0010,544 MW10,411 MW
26 Oct, 14:0010,523 MW10,326 MW
26 Oct, 15:0010,409 MW10,268 MW
26 Oct, 16:0010,522 MW10,377 MW
26 Oct, 17:0010,711 MW10,543 MW
26 Oct, 18:0010,638 MW10,650 MW
26 Oct, 19:0010,629 MW10,574 MW
26 Oct, 20:0010,435 MW10,421 MW
26 Oct, 21:0010,130 MW10,189 MW
26 Oct, 22:0010,057 MW10,144 MW
26 Oct, 23:009,794 MW9,889 MW
27 Oct, 00:009,355 MW9,417 MW
27 Oct, 01:009,193 MW9,286 MW
27 Oct, 02:008,891 MW9,084 MW
27 Oct, 03:008,809 MW9,090 MW
27 Oct, 04:008,882 MW9,104 MW
27 Oct, 05:008,940 MW9,282 MW
27 Oct, 06:009,572 MW9,905 MW
27 Oct, 07:0010,012 MW10,259 MW
27 Oct, 08:0010,209 MW10,419 MW
27 Oct, 09:0010,238 MW10,423 MW
27 Oct, 10:0010,378 MW10,420 MW
27 Oct, 11:0010,543 MW10,488 MW
27 Oct, 12:0010,563 MW10,471 MW
27 Oct, 13:0010,428 MW10,408 MW
27 Oct, 14:0010,152 MW10,368 MW
27 Oct, 15:0010,094 MW10,375 MW
27 Oct, 16:0010,417 MW10,477 MW
27 Oct, 17:0010,627 MW10,630 MW
27 Oct, 18:0010,657 MW10,643 MW
27 Oct, 19:0010,676 MW10,567 MW
27 Oct, 20:0010,617 MW10,423 MW
27 Oct, 21:0010,220 MW10,168 MW
27 Oct, 22:0010,063 MW10,115 MW
27 Oct, 23:009,946 MW9,863 MW
28 Oct, 00:009,554 MW9,452 MW
28 Oct, 01:009,442 MW9,271 MW
28 Oct, 02:009,345 MW9,093 MW
28 Oct, 03:009,382 MW9,041 MW
28 Oct, 04:009,311 MW9,018 MW
28 Oct, 05:009,453 MW9,197 MW
28 Oct, 06:0010,057 MW9,821 MW
28 Oct, 07:0010,482 MW10,171 MW
28 Oct, 08:0010,664 MW10,379 MW
28 Oct, 09:0010,844 MW10,345 MW
28 Oct, 10:0010,814 MW10,371 MW
28 Oct, 11:0010,793 MW10,498 MW
28 Oct, 12:0010,723 MW10,448 MW
28 Oct, 13:0010,736 MW10,392 MW
28 Oct, 14:0010,519 MW10,282 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fi_2026,
  title = {{Finland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fi/}
}

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