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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North (SE1) was off by 12.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 30% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 625 MW (32.9%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 21:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North (SE1) was off by 12.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 30% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 625 MW (32.9%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 21:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden North (SE1) came 42 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 138 MW, against average demand of 1,189 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error12.4%
Bias+2.0%
Hours within 5%30%
Worst miss625 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-7 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 625 MW (32.9%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 21:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,278 MW, reported 1,903 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden North (SE1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North (SE1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North (SE1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:001,246 MW1,207 MW
21 Oct, 15:001,326 MW1,224 MW
21 Oct, 16:001,308 MW1,238 MW
21 Oct, 17:001,356 MW1,253 MW
21 Oct, 18:001,291 MW1,251 MW
21 Oct, 19:001,329 MW1,255 MW
21 Oct, 20:001,305 MW1,242 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,280 MW1,221 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,254 MW1,184 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,180 MW1,166 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,149 MW1,134 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,286 MW1,110 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,287 MW1,105 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,337 MW1,103 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,381 MW1,119 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,297 MW1,133 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,332 MW1,165 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,292 MW1,200 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,312 MW1,221 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,300 MW1,219 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,314 MW1,208 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,317 MW1,203 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,231 MW1,204 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,202 MW1,206 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,272 MW1,203 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,216 MW1,216 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,242 MW1,225 MW
22 Oct, 17:001,217 MW1,232 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,216 MW1,227 MW
22 Oct, 19:001,329 MW1,222 MW
22 Oct, 20:001,246 MW1,207 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,184 MW1,196 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,192 MW1,157 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,191 MW1,135 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,183 MW1,108 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,123 MW1,080 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,210 MW1,084 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,293 MW1,092 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,274 MW1,101 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,140 MW1,117 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,250 MW1,149 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,533 MW1,190 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,348 MW1,203 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,274 MW1,208 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,315 MW1,202 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,260 MW1,201 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,286 MW1,195 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,215 MW1,193 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,240 MW1,191 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,293 MW1,205 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,282 MW1,208 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,338 MW1,220 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,399 MW1,214 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,435 MW1,211 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,304 MW1,184 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,233 MW1,170 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,286 MW1,133 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,268 MW1,108 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,280 MW1,091 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,236 MW1,076 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,325 MW1,073 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,302 MW1,069 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,266 MW1,073 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,312 MW1,071 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,237 MW1,071 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,231 MW1,090 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,239 MW1,121 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,203 MW1,146 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,180 MW1,144 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,189 MW1,139 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,184 MW1,141 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,226 MW1,143 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,149 MW1,139 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,163 MW1,150 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,013 MW1,168 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,086 MW1,179 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,174 MW1,174 MW
24 Oct, 19:00845 MW1,171 MW
24 Oct, 20:00909 MW1,163 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,093 MW1,152 MW
24 Oct, 22:00948 MW1,126 MW
24 Oct, 23:00980 MW1,105 MW
25 Oct, 00:00983 MW1,088 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,007 MW1,064 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,170 MW1,069 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,049 MW1,076 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,010 MW1,076 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,073 MW1,089 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,025 MW1,100 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,093 MW1,110 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,148 MW1,105 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,183 MW1,130 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,120 MW1,135 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,108 MW1,147 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,075 MW1,158 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,177 MW1,156 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,211 MW1,155 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,330 MW1,158 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,233 MW1,173 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,098 MW1,185 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,072 MW1,191 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,108 MW1,194 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,159 MW1,181 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,116 MW1,161 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,089 MW1,140 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,090 MW1,128 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,010 MW1,097 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,100 MW1,092 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,116 MW1,081 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,141 MW1,076 MW
26 Oct, 03:00985 MW1,082 MW
26 Oct, 04:00901 MW1,101 MW
26 Oct, 05:00795 MW1,133 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,017 MW1,165 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,449 MW1,176 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,525 MW1,195 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,348 MW1,193 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,139 MW1,186 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,223 MW1,194 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,298 MW1,196 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,289 MW1,196 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,400 MW1,202 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,230 MW1,217 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,279 MW1,219 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,346 MW1,216 MW
26 Oct, 18:001,247 MW1,216 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,187 MW1,205 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,310 MW1,199 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,389 MW1,172 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,235 MW1,142 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,242 MW1,116 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,101 MW1,098 MW
27 Oct, 01:00942 MW1,085 MW
27 Oct, 02:00979 MW1,094 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,062 MW1,097 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,060 MW1,114 MW
27 Oct, 05:00957 MW1,169 MW
27 Oct, 06:00956 MW1,199 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,162 MW1,209 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,349 MW1,216 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,067 MW1,205 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,085 MW1,194 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,353 MW1,196 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,252 MW1,200 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,160 MW1,203 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,021 MW1,198 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,037 MW1,213 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,351 MW1,225 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,425 MW1,229 MW
27 Oct, 18:001,350 MW1,231 MW
27 Oct, 19:001,261 MW1,222 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,118 MW1,203 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,036 MW1,176 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,011 MW1,142 MW
27 Oct, 23:00965 MW1,109 MW
28 Oct, 00:00998 MW1,094 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,084 MW1,087 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,076 MW1,085 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,173 MW1,086 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,153 MW1,104 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,105 MW1,139 MW
28 Oct, 06:001,105 MW1,182 MW
28 Oct, 07:001,134 MW1,180 MW
28 Oct, 08:001,087 MW1,187 MW
28 Oct, 09:001,225 MW1,187 MW
28 Oct, 10:001,379 MW1,195 MW
28 Oct, 11:001,256 MW1,188 MW
28 Oct, 12:001,059 MW1,185 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se1_2026,
  title = {{Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/

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