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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 29 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Lithuania was off by 10.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 29 September to 28 October 2026, and 20% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -10.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 589 MW (30.1%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Vilnius).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Lithuania was off by 10.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 29 September to 28 October 2026, and 20% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -10.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 589 MW (30.1%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Lithuania came 40 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 165 MW, against average demand of 1,465 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 6% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 29 September to 28 October 2026
Average error10.9%
Bias-10.2%
Hours within 5%20%
Worst miss589 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-156 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 589 MW (30.1%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,368 MW, reported 1,958 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00)
Lithuania day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Lithuania over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 21 Oct, 16:0022 Oct, 16:0023 Oct, 16:0024 Oct, 16:0025 Oct, 15:0026 Oct, 15:0027 Oct, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Lithuania over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 16:001,654 MW1,380 MW
21 Oct, 17:001,671 MW1,455 MW
21 Oct, 18:001,735 MW1,550 MW
21 Oct, 19:001,747 MW1,574 MW
21 Oct, 20:001,682 MW1,523 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,570 MW1,412 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,415 MW1,265 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,291 MW1,140 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,213 MW1,053 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,189 MW933 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,161 MW1,076 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,162 MW1,103 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,167 MW963 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,249 MW1,044 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,473 MW1,249 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,665 MW1,434 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,764 MW1,531 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,781 MW1,513 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,774 MW1,437 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,723 MW1,487 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,628 MW1,472 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,597 MW1,350 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,641 MW1,361 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,666 MW1,353 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,660 MW1,340 MW
22 Oct, 17:001,670 MW1,425 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,751 MW1,537 MW
22 Oct, 19:001,750 MW1,570 MW
22 Oct, 20:001,687 MW1,525 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,586 MW1,419 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,434 MW1,276 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,301 MW1,154 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,237 MW1,073 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,174 MW1,164 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,141 MW1,174 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,130 MW1,001 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,143 MW978 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,224 MW1,073 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,450 MW1,316 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,647 MW1,524 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,763 MW1,645 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,796 MW1,655 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,798 MW1,601 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,801 MW1,568 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,761 MW1,546 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,766 MW1,577 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,723 MW1,558 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,737 MW1,487 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,661 MW1,497 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,649 MW1,557 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,707 MW1,624 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,708 MW1,629 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,648 MW1,552 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,557 MW1,440 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,439 MW1,308 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,318 MW1,200 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,242 MW1,115 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,207 MW1,090 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,173 MW1,057 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,165 MW1,046 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,169 MW1,049 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,192 MW1,087 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,276 MW1,150 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,369 MW1,230 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,432 MW1,296 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,453 MW1,312 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,391 MW1,244 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,262 MW1,162 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,137 MW1,103 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,134 MW1,062 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,184 MW1,045 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,347 MW1,104 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,415 MW1,195 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,472 MW1,322 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,568 MW1,412 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,578 MW1,434 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,520 MW1,384 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,447 MW1,302 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,349 MW1,208 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,261 MW1,113 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,199 MW1,054 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,155 MW1,034 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,127 MW1,007 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,122 MW991 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,109 MW983 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,117 MW980 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,143 MW1,009 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,219 MW1,071 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,279 MW1,125 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,405 MW1,143 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,479 MW1,121 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,476 MW1,074 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,438 MW1,038 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,336 MW1,023 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,346 MW1,047 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,427 MW1,113 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,489 MW1,204 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,511 MW1,283 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,607 MW1,356 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,633 MW1,425 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,595 MW1,418 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,528 MW1,359 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,423 MW1,264 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,297 MW1,147 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,196 MW1,045 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,139 MW995 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,108 MW966 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,100 MW1,026 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,108 MW1,174 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,120 MW1,278 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,201 MW1,277 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,458 MW1,353 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,637 MW1,559 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,775 MW1,658 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,801 MW1,646 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,775 MW1,578 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,764 MW1,524 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,728 MW1,504 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,759 MW1,516 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,740 MW1,526 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,748 MW1,566 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,733 MW1,599 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,805 MW1,648 MW
26 Oct, 18:001,820 MW1,660 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,769 MW1,635 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,688 MW1,570 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,579 MW1,455 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,428 MW1,309 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,316 MW1,196 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,240 MW1,137 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,186 MW1,089 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,168 MW1,099 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,172 MW1,215 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,187 MW1,207 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,282 MW1,186 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,525 MW1,429 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,660 MW1,622 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,778 MW1,675 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,663 MW1,592 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,620 MW1,478 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,646 MW1,421 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,518 MW1,406 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,552 MW1,458 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,618 MW1,424 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,653 MW1,527 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,634 MW1,631 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,758 MW1,694 MW
27 Oct, 18:001,804 MW1,687 MW
27 Oct, 19:001,760 MW1,640 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,706 MW1,583 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,602 MW1,466 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,457 MW1,319 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,331 MW1,198 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,272 MW1,140 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,205 MW1,104 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,175 MW1,081 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,178 MW1,213 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,195 MW1,239 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,288 MW1,336 MW
28 Oct, 06:001,520 MW1,427 MW
28 Oct, 07:001,669 MW1,576 MW
28 Oct, 08:001,779 MW1,667 MW
28 Oct, 09:001,794 MW1,619 MW
28 Oct, 10:001,742 MW1,546 MW
28 Oct, 11:001,749 MW1,503 MW
28 Oct, 12:001,738 MW1,482 MW
28 Oct, 13:001,747 MW1,510 MW
28 Oct, 14:001,740 MW1,558 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 710 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lt/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lt/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_lt_2026,
  title = {{Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lt/}
}

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