Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina was off by 43.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 667 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 15% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +42.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,146 MW (382.7%) too high at 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Sarajevo).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina was off by 43.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 667 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 15% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +42.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,146 MW (382.7%) too high at 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Bosnia and Herzegovina came 47 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 272 MW, against average demand of 951 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 91% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

667 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026

Average error43.2%

Bias+42.4%

Hours within 5%15%

Worst miss1,146 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+261 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,146 MW (382.7%) too high at 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,446 MW, reported 300 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Bosnia and Herzegovina over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:00	1,524 MW	1,403 MW
21 Oct, 15:00	1,523 MW	1,417 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	1,381 MW	1,467 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	1,373 MW	1,489 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	1,556 MW	1,595 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	1,392 MW	1,581 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	1,482 MW	1,545 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	1,293 MW	1,483 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	1,190 MW	1,267 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	1,037 MW	1,178 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	819 MW	1,002 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	682 MW	923 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	607 MW	884 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	589 MW	864 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	595 MW	881 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	805 MW	961 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	1,195 MW	1,193 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	1,490 MW	1,418 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	1,535 MW	1,474 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	1,265 MW	1,489 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	1,250 MW	1,491 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	1,141 MW	1,518 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	1,078 MW	1,494 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	1,027 MW	1,466 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	1,154 MW	1,493 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	1,312 MW	1,484 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	1,408 MW	1,449 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	1,560 MW	1,495 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	1,733 MW	1,624 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	1,648 MW	1,626 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	1,601 MW	1,574 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	1,480 MW	1,490 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	1,256 MW	1,278 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	1,050 MW	1,168 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	836 MW	1,021 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	670 MW	950 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	654 MW	910 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	662 MW	897 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	721 MW	916 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	855 MW	964 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	1,178 MW	1,273 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	1,454 MW	1,508 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	1,174 MW	1,538 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	974 MW	1,472 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	597 MW	1,319 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	422 MW	1,210 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	342 MW	1,157 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	373 MW	1,136 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	552 MW	1,202 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	890 MW	1,294 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	1,176 MW	1,359 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	1,445 MW	1,538 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	1,550 MW	1,689 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	1,537 MW	1,706 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	1,473 MW	1,650 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	1,351 MW	1,567 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	1,174 MW	1,403 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	1,043 MW	1,258 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	857 MW	1,034 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	765 MW	973 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	732 MW	919 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	774 MW	910 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	799 MW	911 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	802 MW	960 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	911 MW	1,143 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	1,137 MW	1,330 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	1,346 MW	1,417 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	1,265 MW	1,418 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	1,128 MW	1,374 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	1,068 MW	1,385 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	1,002 MW	1,391 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	1,011 MW	1,359 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	1,047 MW	1,410 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	1,207 MW	1,415 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	1,372 MW	1,422 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	1,525 MW	1,520 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	1,548 MW	1,595 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	1,494 MW	1,593 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	1,392 MW	1,537 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	1,299 MW	1,440 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	1,114 MW	1,268 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	987 MW	1,191 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	856 MW	1,053 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	744 MW	969 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	n/a	900 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	712 MW	900 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	718 MW	887 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	770 MW	891 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	811 MW	951 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	959 MW	1,048 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	1,010 MW	1,212 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	1,078 MW	1,340 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	989 MW	1,380 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	757 MW	1,363 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	647 MW	1,288 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	570 MW	1,207 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	617 MW	1,195 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	757 MW	1,230 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	1,023 MW	1,299 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	1,297 MW	1,447 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	1,504 MW	1,554 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	1,500 MW	1,587 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	1,432 MW	1,551 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	1,413 MW	1,485 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	1,316 MW	1,411 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	1,126 MW	1,230 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	963 MW	1,088 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	857 MW	966 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	749 MW	889 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	707 MW	843 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	679 MW	802 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	702 MW	836 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	808 MW	976 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	1,075 MW	1,268 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	1,131 MW	1,513 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	776 MW	1,497 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	548 MW	1,386 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	304 MW	1,217 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	312 MW	1,155 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	294 MW	1,129 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	469 MW	1,157 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	763 MW	1,236 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	1,187 MW	1,335 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	1,494 MW	1,518 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	1,576 MW	1,661 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	1,561 MW	1,679 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	1,507 MW	1,632 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	1,483 MW	1,553 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	1,364 MW	1,441 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	1,203 MW	1,296 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	1,067 MW	1,177 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	901 MW	1,060 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	787 MW	982 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	745 MW	943 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	775 MW	934 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	859 MW	955 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	986 MW	1,088 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	1,233 MW	1,318 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	1,302 MW	1,520 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	1,010 MW	1,515 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	704 MW	1,422 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	509 MW	1,284 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	369 MW	1,200 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	407 MW	1,188 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	526 MW	1,218 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	745 MW	1,258 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	1,086 MW	1,326 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	1,317 MW	1,510 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	1,498 MW	1,687 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	1,499 MW	1,673 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	1,496 MW	1,639 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	1,452 MW	1,555 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	1,343 MW	1,482 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	1,200 MW	1,308 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	1,081 MW	1,224 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	895 MW	1,084 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	737 MW	995 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	639 MW	971 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	591 MW	989 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	682 MW	1,031 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	844 MW	1,130 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	1,071 MW	1,389 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	1,102 MW	1,594 MW
28 Oct, 08:00	892 MW	1,581 MW
28 Oct, 09:00	712 MW	1,467 MW
28 Oct, 10:00	548 MW	1,259 MW
28 Oct, 11:00	517 MW	1,188 MW
28 Oct, 12:00	536 MW	1,175 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (667 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ba/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ba/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ba_2026,
  title = {{Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ba/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ba/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related