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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Serbia was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 500 MW (11.9%) too low at 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Belgrade).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Serbia was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 500 MW (11.9%) too low at 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Serbia came 28 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 131 MW, against average demand of 3,690 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 41% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.5%
Bias-0.7%
Hours within 5%75%
Worst miss500 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-29 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 500 MW (11.9%) too low at 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 3,696 MW, reported 4,196 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Serbia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Serbia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Serbia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:003,729 MW3,921 MW
21 Oct, 15:003,877 MW3,925 MW
21 Oct, 16:004,006 MW3,953 MW
21 Oct, 17:004,187 MW4,152 MW
21 Oct, 18:004,344 MW4,460 MW
21 Oct, 19:004,411 MW4,504 MW
21 Oct, 20:004,464 MW4,440 MW
21 Oct, 21:004,208 MW4,279 MW
21 Oct, 22:004,017 MW4,116 MW
21 Oct, 23:003,835 MW3,973 MW
22 Oct, 00:003,678 MW3,791 MW
22 Oct, 01:003,372 MW3,508 MW
22 Oct, 02:003,151 MW3,260 MW
22 Oct, 03:003,071 MW3,167 MW
22 Oct, 04:003,047 MW3,166 MW
22 Oct, 05:003,214 MW3,321 MW
22 Oct, 06:003,664 MW3,768 MW
22 Oct, 07:004,034 MW4,106 MW
22 Oct, 08:004,148 MW4,265 MW
22 Oct, 09:004,102 MW4,188 MW
22 Oct, 10:004,104 MW4,112 MW
22 Oct, 11:004,063 MW4,028 MW
22 Oct, 12:004,086 MW3,963 MW
22 Oct, 13:004,039 MW3,949 MW
22 Oct, 14:004,040 MW3,894 MW
22 Oct, 15:004,130 MW3,950 MW
22 Oct, 16:004,264 MW4,054 MW
22 Oct, 17:004,369 MW4,224 MW
22 Oct, 18:004,504 MW4,498 MW
22 Oct, 19:004,475 MW4,541 MW
22 Oct, 20:004,473 MW4,534 MW
22 Oct, 21:004,289 MW4,318 MW
22 Oct, 22:004,028 MW4,101 MW
22 Oct, 23:003,915 MW3,996 MW
23 Oct, 00:003,762 MW3,830 MW
23 Oct, 01:003,482 MW3,536 MW
23 Oct, 02:003,214 MW3,297 MW
23 Oct, 03:003,074 MW3,206 MW
23 Oct, 04:003,140 MW3,213 MW
23 Oct, 05:003,292 MW3,403 MW
23 Oct, 06:003,718 MW3,829 MW
23 Oct, 07:004,080 MW4,269 MW
23 Oct, 08:004,160 MW4,394 MW
23 Oct, 09:004,064 MW4,304 MW
23 Oct, 10:003,858 MW4,198 MW
23 Oct, 11:003,761 MW4,095 MW
23 Oct, 12:003,668 MW4,035 MW
23 Oct, 13:003,653 MW4,009 MW
23 Oct, 14:003,572 MW3,954 MW
23 Oct, 15:003,713 MW3,989 MW
23 Oct, 16:003,967 MW4,112 MW
23 Oct, 17:004,230 MW4,302 MW
23 Oct, 18:004,544 MW4,594 MW
23 Oct, 19:004,551 MW4,639 MW
23 Oct, 20:004,498 MW4,621 MW
23 Oct, 21:004,308 MW4,428 MW
23 Oct, 22:004,084 MW4,198 MW
23 Oct, 23:003,970 MW4,069 MW
24 Oct, 00:003,779 MW3,989 MW
24 Oct, 01:003,546 MW3,723 MW
24 Oct, 02:003,333 MW3,481 MW
24 Oct, 03:003,208 MW3,340 MW
24 Oct, 04:003,193 MW3,296 MW
24 Oct, 05:003,267 MW3,365 MW
24 Oct, 06:003,501 MW3,518 MW
24 Oct, 07:003,779 MW3,770 MW
24 Oct, 08:004,007 MW4,029 MW
24 Oct, 09:004,029 MW4,127 MW
24 Oct, 10:003,897 MW4,083 MW
24 Oct, 11:003,789 MW4,029 MW
24 Oct, 12:003,732 MW3,972 MW
24 Oct, 13:003,662 MW3,919 MW
24 Oct, 14:003,614 MW3,848 MW
24 Oct, 15:003,695 MW3,820 MW
24 Oct, 16:003,882 MW3,862 MW
24 Oct, 17:004,095 MW3,945 MW
24 Oct, 18:004,367 MW4,127 MW
24 Oct, 19:004,409 MW4,270 MW
24 Oct, 20:004,320 MW4,300 MW
24 Oct, 21:004,150 MW4,120 MW
24 Oct, 22:003,970 MW4,020 MW
24 Oct, 23:003,878 MW3,923 MW
25 Oct, 00:003,736 MW3,828 MW
25 Oct, 01:003,213 MW3,604 MW
25 Oct, 02:003,214 MW3,336 MW
25 Oct, 02:003,215 MW3,336 MW
25 Oct, 03:003,044 MW3,126 MW
25 Oct, 04:003,028 MW3,152 MW
25 Oct, 05:003,124 MW3,187 MW
25 Oct, 06:003,330 MW3,273 MW
25 Oct, 07:003,445 MW3,465 MW
25 Oct, 08:003,789 MW3,651 MW
25 Oct, 09:003,657 MW3,867 MW
25 Oct, 10:003,644 MW3,924 MW
25 Oct, 11:003,875 MW3,917 MW
25 Oct, 12:003,782 MW3,907 MW
25 Oct, 13:003,844 MW3,878 MW
25 Oct, 14:003,865 MW3,829 MW
25 Oct, 15:003,881 MW3,836 MW
25 Oct, 16:004,082 MW3,958 MW
25 Oct, 17:004,238 MW4,162 MW
25 Oct, 18:004,255 MW4,261 MW
25 Oct, 19:004,213 MW4,268 MW
25 Oct, 20:004,239 MW4,260 MW
25 Oct, 21:004,004 MW4,161 MW
25 Oct, 22:003,725 MW4,056 MW
25 Oct, 23:003,721 MW3,976 MW
26 Oct, 00:003,694 MW3,760 MW
26 Oct, 01:003,397 MW3,465 MW
26 Oct, 02:003,165 MW3,263 MW
26 Oct, 03:003,060 MW3,127 MW
26 Oct, 04:003,088 MW3,159 MW
26 Oct, 05:003,303 MW3,335 MW
26 Oct, 06:003,762 MW3,720 MW
26 Oct, 07:004,211 MW4,146 MW
26 Oct, 08:004,283 MW4,287 MW
26 Oct, 09:004,282 MW4,232 MW
26 Oct, 10:004,213 MW4,140 MW
26 Oct, 11:004,230 MW4,085 MW
26 Oct, 12:004,179 MW4,042 MW
26 Oct, 13:004,154 MW4,018 MW
26 Oct, 14:004,158 MW3,957 MW
26 Oct, 15:004,195 MW3,984 MW
26 Oct, 16:004,551 MW4,148 MW
26 Oct, 17:004,696 MW4,355 MW
26 Oct, 18:004,701 MW4,505 MW
26 Oct, 19:004,657 MW4,518 MW
26 Oct, 20:004,713 MW4,458 MW
26 Oct, 21:004,423 MW4,298 MW
26 Oct, 22:004,249 MW4,190 MW
26 Oct, 23:004,072 MW4,069 MW
27 Oct, 00:003,890 MW3,991 MW
27 Oct, 01:003,588 MW3,721 MW
27 Oct, 02:003,374 MW3,500 MW
27 Oct, 03:003,292 MW3,373 MW
27 Oct, 04:003,313 MW3,370 MW
27 Oct, 05:003,503 MW3,560 MW
27 Oct, 06:003,922 MW3,976 MW
27 Oct, 07:004,271 MW4,300 MW
27 Oct, 08:004,328 MW4,432 MW
27 Oct, 09:004,325 MW4,446 MW
27 Oct, 10:004,319 MW4,368 MW
27 Oct, 11:004,339 MW4,385 MW
27 Oct, 12:004,380 MW4,363 MW
27 Oct, 13:004,431 MW4,334 MW
27 Oct, 14:004,463 MW4,333 MW
27 Oct, 15:004,490 MW4,373 MW
27 Oct, 16:004,593 MW4,632 MW
27 Oct, 17:004,797 MW4,737 MW
27 Oct, 18:004,719 MW4,737 MW
27 Oct, 19:004,704 MW4,703 MW
27 Oct, 20:004,641 MW4,650 MW
27 Oct, 21:004,473 MW4,507 MW
27 Oct, 22:004,283 MW4,358 MW
27 Oct, 23:004,121 MW4,246 MW
28 Oct, 00:003,961 MW4,188 MW
28 Oct, 01:003,699 MW3,905 MW
28 Oct, 02:003,482 MW3,666 MW
28 Oct, 03:003,388 MW3,519 MW
28 Oct, 04:003,396 MW3,531 MW
28 Oct, 05:003,599 MW3,794 MW
28 Oct, 06:003,983 MW4,103 MW
28 Oct, 07:004,401 MW4,420 MW
28 Oct, 08:004,495 MW4,463 MW
28 Oct, 09:004,450 MW4,420 MW
28 Oct, 10:004,356 MW4,318 MW
28 Oct, 11:004,306 MW4,294 MW
28 Oct, 12:004,315 MW4,310 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/rs/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/rs/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_rs_2026,
  title = {{Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/rs/}
}

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