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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 683 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 367 MW (9.9%) too low at 4 Oct 2026, 19:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 683 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 367 MW (9.9%) too low at 4 Oct 2026, 19:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway South-East (NO1) came 17 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 96 MW, against average demand of 3,758 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 29% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

683 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.5%
Bias-1.4%
Hours within 5%89%
Worst miss367 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-54 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 367 MW (9.9%) too low at 4 Oct 2026, 19:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 3,341 MW, reported 3,708 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway South-East (NO1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway South-East (NO1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:004,413 MW4,321 MW
21 Oct, 15:004,403 MW4,382 MW
21 Oct, 16:004,477 MW4,419 MW
21 Oct, 17:004,504 MW4,422 MW
21 Oct, 18:004,532 MW4,412 MW
21 Oct, 19:004,471 MW4,340 MW
21 Oct, 20:004,366 MW4,272 MW
21 Oct, 21:004,223 MW4,176 MW
21 Oct, 22:004,047 MW3,977 MW
21 Oct, 23:003,768 MW3,732 MW
22 Oct, 00:003,519 MW3,475 MW
22 Oct, 01:003,346 MW3,329 MW
22 Oct, 02:003,233 MW3,250 MW
22 Oct, 03:003,156 MW3,200 MW
22 Oct, 04:003,135 MW3,158 MW
22 Oct, 05:003,230 MW3,284 MW
22 Oct, 06:003,619 MW3,688 MW
22 Oct, 07:004,041 MW4,100 MW
22 Oct, 08:004,143 MW4,253 MW
22 Oct, 09:004,167 MW4,204 MW
22 Oct, 10:004,152 MW4,105 MW
22 Oct, 11:004,151 MW4,049 MW
22 Oct, 12:004,138 MW4,014 MW
22 Oct, 13:004,134 MW4,011 MW
22 Oct, 14:004,152 MW4,034 MW
22 Oct, 15:004,196 MW4,094 MW
22 Oct, 16:004,310 MW4,210 MW
22 Oct, 17:004,348 MW4,262 MW
22 Oct, 18:004,365 MW4,269 MW
22 Oct, 19:004,299 MW4,232 MW
22 Oct, 20:004,214 MW4,159 MW
22 Oct, 21:004,087 MW4,057 MW
22 Oct, 22:003,927 MW3,862 MW
22 Oct, 23:003,683 MW3,608 MW
23 Oct, 00:003,461 MW3,363 MW
23 Oct, 01:003,303 MW3,189 MW
23 Oct, 02:003,199 MW3,114 MW
23 Oct, 03:003,144 MW3,071 MW
23 Oct, 04:003,138 MW3,117 MW
23 Oct, 05:003,236 MW3,246 MW
23 Oct, 06:003,608 MW3,599 MW
23 Oct, 07:004,051 MW3,994 MW
23 Oct, 08:004,190 MW4,161 MW
23 Oct, 09:004,222 MW4,212 MW
23 Oct, 10:004,191 MW4,186 MW
23 Oct, 11:004,177 MW4,129 MW
23 Oct, 12:004,153 MW4,091 MW
23 Oct, 13:004,086 MW4,080 MW
23 Oct, 14:004,049 MW4,085 MW
23 Oct, 15:004,036 MW4,131 MW
23 Oct, 16:004,109 MW4,179 MW
23 Oct, 17:004,199 MW4,240 MW
23 Oct, 18:004,275 MW4,198 MW
23 Oct, 19:004,235 MW4,116 MW
23 Oct, 20:004,131 MW4,015 MW
23 Oct, 21:003,986 MW3,896 MW
23 Oct, 22:003,850 MW3,725 MW
23 Oct, 23:003,705 MW3,541 MW
24 Oct, 00:003,527 MW3,463 MW
24 Oct, 01:003,377 MW3,316 MW
24 Oct, 02:003,279 MW3,235 MW
24 Oct, 03:003,228 MW3,192 MW
24 Oct, 04:003,201 MW3,168 MW
24 Oct, 05:003,209 MW3,149 MW
24 Oct, 06:003,293 MW3,255 MW
24 Oct, 07:003,413 MW3,429 MW
24 Oct, 08:003,599 MW3,559 MW
24 Oct, 09:003,805 MW3,717 MW
24 Oct, 10:003,967 MW3,837 MW
24 Oct, 11:004,017 MW3,894 MW
24 Oct, 12:004,047 MW3,912 MW
24 Oct, 13:004,061 MW3,919 MW
24 Oct, 14:004,064 MW3,939 MW
24 Oct, 15:004,090 MW3,951 MW
24 Oct, 16:004,134 MW4,011 MW
24 Oct, 17:004,169 MW4,066 MW
24 Oct, 18:004,183 MW4,068 MW
24 Oct, 19:004,086 MW4,006 MW
24 Oct, 20:003,945 MW3,896 MW
24 Oct, 21:003,852 MW3,766 MW
24 Oct, 22:003,736 MW3,631 MW
24 Oct, 23:003,617 MW3,471 MW
25 Oct, 00:003,457 MW3,323 MW
25 Oct, 01:003,312 MW3,180 MW
25 Oct, 02:003,208 MW3,126 MW
25 Oct, 02:003,146 MW3,082 MW
25 Oct, 03:003,152 MW3,058 MW
25 Oct, 04:003,152 MW3,050 MW
25 Oct, 05:003,197 MW3,078 MW
25 Oct, 06:003,350 MW3,226 MW
25 Oct, 07:003,461 MW3,401 MW
25 Oct, 08:003,674 MW3,563 MW
25 Oct, 09:003,910 MW3,684 MW
25 Oct, 10:004,047 MW3,797 MW
25 Oct, 11:004,112 MW3,895 MW
25 Oct, 12:004,110 MW3,933 MW
25 Oct, 13:004,111 MW3,906 MW
25 Oct, 14:004,101 MW3,950 MW
25 Oct, 15:004,151 MW4,020 MW
25 Oct, 16:004,231 MW4,124 MW
25 Oct, 17:004,294 MW4,136 MW
25 Oct, 18:004,283 MW4,111 MW
25 Oct, 19:004,215 MW4,045 MW
25 Oct, 20:004,108 MW3,942 MW
25 Oct, 21:003,998 MW3,775 MW
25 Oct, 22:003,852 MW3,561 MW
25 Oct, 23:003,650 MWn/a
26 Oct, 00:003,473 MW3,304 MW
26 Oct, 01:003,354 MW3,173 MW
26 Oct, 02:003,277 MW3,144 MW
26 Oct, 03:003,222 MW3,131 MW
26 Oct, 04:003,222 MW3,256 MW
26 Oct, 05:003,366 MW3,457 MW
26 Oct, 06:003,785 MW3,897 MW
26 Oct, 07:004,217 MW4,224 MW
26 Oct, 08:004,340 MW4,292 MW
26 Oct, 09:004,219 MW4,248 MW
26 Oct, 10:004,057 MW4,185 MW
26 Oct, 11:00n/a4,083 MW
26 Oct, 12:003,896 MW4,026 MW
26 Oct, 13:003,855 MW3,968 MW
26 Oct, 14:003,896 MW3,970 MW
26 Oct, 15:003,995 MW4,069 MW
26 Oct, 16:004,206 MW4,124 MW
26 Oct, 17:004,323 MW4,165 MW
26 Oct, 18:004,316 MW4,173 MW
26 Oct, 19:004,110 MW4,101 MW
26 Oct, 20:004,243 MW4,039 MW
26 Oct, 21:004,133 MW3,951 MW
26 Oct, 22:003,968 MW3,768 MW
26 Oct, 23:003,762 MW3,582 MW
27 Oct, 00:003,542 MW3,447 MW
27 Oct, 01:003,405 MW3,328 MW
27 Oct, 02:003,290 MW3,266 MW
27 Oct, 03:003,229 MW3,181 MW
27 Oct, 04:003,225 MW3,211 MW
27 Oct, 05:003,386 MW3,374 MW
27 Oct, 06:003,819 MW3,786 MW
27 Oct, 07:004,230 MW4,192 MW
27 Oct, 08:004,282 MW4,291 MW
27 Oct, 09:004,270 MW4,247 MW
27 Oct, 10:004,257 MW4,187 MW
27 Oct, 11:004,239 MW4,128 MW
27 Oct, 12:004,226 MW4,097 MW
27 Oct, 13:004,187 MW4,081 MW
27 Oct, 14:004,202 MW4,119 MW
27 Oct, 15:004,277 MW4,168 MW
27 Oct, 16:004,409 MW4,256 MW
27 Oct, 17:004,434 MW4,260 MW
27 Oct, 18:004,402 MW4,222 MW
27 Oct, 19:004,329 MW4,102 MW
27 Oct, 20:004,223 MW4,009 MW
27 Oct, 21:004,095 MW3,859 MW
27 Oct, 22:003,922 MW3,649 MW
27 Oct, 23:003,653 MW3,398 MW
28 Oct, 00:003,424 MW3,260 MW
28 Oct, 01:003,270 MW3,144 MW
28 Oct, 02:003,179 MW3,114 MW
28 Oct, 03:003,133 MW3,097 MW
28 Oct, 04:003,163 MW3,182 MW
28 Oct, 05:003,322 MW3,390 MW
28 Oct, 06:003,781 MW3,857 MW
28 Oct, 07:004,233 MW4,263 MW
28 Oct, 08:004,288 MW4,373 MW
28 Oct, 09:004,191 MW4,250 MW
28 Oct, 10:004,058 MW4,135 MW
28 Oct, 11:003,943 MW4,045 MW
28 Oct, 12:003,927 MW3,984 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (683 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no1/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no1/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no1_2026,
  title = {{Norway South-East (NO1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no1/}
}

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