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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Bulgaria was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 677 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 845 MW (15.4%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 18:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Sofia).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Bulgaria was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 677 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 845 MW (15.4%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 18:00 EET (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Bulgaria came 30 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 152 MW, against average demand of 3,983 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 55% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

677 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.8%
Bias+0.8%
Hours within 5%74%
Worst miss845 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+26 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 845 MW (15.4%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 18:00 EET (UTC+02:00): forecast 4,626 MW, reported 5,471 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00)
Bulgaria day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Bulgaria over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 21 Oct, 12:0022 Oct, 12:0023 Oct, 12:0024 Oct, 12:0025 Oct, 11:0026 Oct, 11:0027 Oct, 11:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Bulgaria over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 10:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 12:004,192 MW4,383 MW
21 Oct, 13:004,130 MW4,368 MW
21 Oct, 14:004,071 MW4,335 MW
21 Oct, 15:004,018 MW4,299 MW
21 Oct, 16:004,009 MW4,157 MW
21 Oct, 17:004,101 MW4,179 MW
21 Oct, 18:004,477 MW4,499 MW
21 Oct, 19:004,850 MW4,853 MW
21 Oct, 20:004,743 MW4,706 MW
21 Oct, 21:004,469 MW4,456 MW
21 Oct, 22:004,164 MW4,187 MW
21 Oct, 23:003,900 MW3,922 MW
22 Oct, 00:003,599 MW3,659 MW
22 Oct, 01:003,420 MW3,462 MW
22 Oct, 02:003,362 MW3,388 MW
22 Oct, 03:003,364 MW3,333 MW
22 Oct, 04:003,375 MW3,361 MW
22 Oct, 05:003,464 MW3,507 MW
22 Oct, 06:003,812 MW4,004 MW
22 Oct, 07:004,144 MW4,397 MW
22 Oct, 08:004,448 MW4,736 MW
22 Oct, 09:004,565 MW4,820 MW
22 Oct, 10:004,456 MW4,620 MW
22 Oct, 11:004,439 MW4,539 MW
22 Oct, 12:004,331 MW4,524 MW
22 Oct, 13:004,338 MW4,578 MW
22 Oct, 14:004,338 MW4,555 MW
22 Oct, 15:004,288 MW4,491 MW
22 Oct, 16:004,261 MW4,391 MW
22 Oct, 17:004,338 MW4,399 MW
22 Oct, 18:004,644 MW4,642 MW
22 Oct, 19:004,891 MW4,969 MW
22 Oct, 20:004,711 MW4,814 MW
22 Oct, 21:004,439 MW4,538 MW
22 Oct, 22:004,154 MW4,255 MW
22 Oct, 23:003,909 MW3,988 MW
23 Oct, 00:003,604 MW3,745 MW
23 Oct, 01:003,440 MW3,597 MW
23 Oct, 02:003,339 MW3,533 MW
23 Oct, 03:003,282 MW3,499 MW
23 Oct, 04:003,328 MW3,521 MW
23 Oct, 05:003,413 MW3,641 MW
23 Oct, 06:003,806 MW4,068 MW
23 Oct, 07:004,157 MW4,417 MW
23 Oct, 08:004,476 MW4,687 MW
23 Oct, 09:004,643 MW4,762 MW
23 Oct, 10:004,494 MW4,528 MW
23 Oct, 11:004,318 MW4,421 MW
23 Oct, 12:004,185 MW4,271 MW
23 Oct, 13:004,149 MW4,335 MW
23 Oct, 14:003,982 MW4,277 MW
23 Oct, 15:003,867 MW4,246 MW
23 Oct, 16:003,934 MW4,154 MW
23 Oct, 17:004,025 MW4,184 MW
23 Oct, 18:004,398 MW4,492 MW
23 Oct, 19:004,650 MW4,849 MW
23 Oct, 20:004,495 MW4,724 MW
23 Oct, 21:004,261 MW4,480 MW
23 Oct, 22:004,026 MW4,230 MW
23 Oct, 23:003,794 MW3,989 MW
24 Oct, 00:003,554 MW3,603 MW
24 Oct, 01:003,338 MW3,518 MW
24 Oct, 02:003,229 MW3,473 MW
24 Oct, 03:003,224 MW3,445 MW
24 Oct, 04:003,203 MW3,442 MW
24 Oct, 05:003,246 MW3,496 MW
24 Oct, 06:003,494 MW3,656 MW
24 Oct, 07:003,764 MW3,933 MW
24 Oct, 08:004,131 MW4,284 MW
24 Oct, 09:004,290 MW4,485 MW
24 Oct, 10:004,123 MW4,485 MW
24 Oct, 11:003,935 MW4,421 MW
24 Oct, 12:003,805 MW4,357 MW
24 Oct, 13:003,700 MW4,343 MW
24 Oct, 14:003,601 MW4,316 MW
24 Oct, 15:003,553 MW4,273 MW
24 Oct, 16:003,650 MW4,302 MW
24 Oct, 17:003,973 MW4,451 MW
24 Oct, 18:004,331 MW4,662 MW
24 Oct, 19:004,591 MW4,819 MW
24 Oct, 20:004,439 MW4,627 MW
24 Oct, 21:004,199 MW4,349 MW
24 Oct, 22:003,965 MW4,081 MW
24 Oct, 23:003,776 MW3,883 MW
25 Oct, 00:00n/a3,620 MW
25 Oct, 01:00n/a3,465 MW
25 Oct, 02:00n/a3,366 MW
25 Oct, 03:00n/a3,341 MW
25 Oct, 03:00n/a3,316 MW
25 Oct, 04:00n/a3,303 MW
25 Oct, 05:003,279 MW3,348 MW
25 Oct, 06:003,504 MW3,516 MW
25 Oct, 07:003,741 MW3,711 MW
25 Oct, 08:003,970 MW4,066 MW
25 Oct, 09:004,167 MW4,315 MW
25 Oct, 10:004,211 MW4,429 MW
25 Oct, 11:004,231 MW4,358 MW
25 Oct, 12:004,126 MW4,297 MW
25 Oct, 13:004,166 MW4,144 MW
25 Oct, 14:004,167 MW4,071 MW
25 Oct, 15:004,258 MW4,039 MW
25 Oct, 16:004,411 MW4,057 MW
25 Oct, 17:004,683 MW4,201 MW
25 Oct, 18:004,875 MW4,437 MW
25 Oct, 19:004,795 MW4,709 MW
25 Oct, 20:004,587 MW4,612 MW
25 Oct, 21:004,320 MW4,395 MW
25 Oct, 22:004,056 MW4,136 MW
25 Oct, 23:003,782 MW3,915 MW
26 Oct, 00:003,496 MW3,720 MW
26 Oct, 01:003,337 MW3,526 MW
26 Oct, 02:003,281 MW3,429 MW
26 Oct, 03:003,261 MW3,380 MW
26 Oct, 04:003,294 MW3,397 MW
26 Oct, 05:003,427 MW3,531 MW
26 Oct, 06:003,833 MW4,011 MW
26 Oct, 07:004,241 MW4,394 MW
26 Oct, 08:004,549 MW4,666 MW
26 Oct, 09:004,714 MW4,686 MW
26 Oct, 10:004,726 MW4,513 MW
26 Oct, 11:004,804 MW4,431 MW
26 Oct, 12:004,812 MW4,332 MW
26 Oct, 13:004,872 MW4,349 MW
26 Oct, 14:004,867 MW4,320 MW
26 Oct, 15:004,882 MW4,248 MW
26 Oct, 16:004,883 MW4,221 MW
26 Oct, 17:005,069 MW4,270 MW
26 Oct, 18:005,274 MW4,589 MW
26 Oct, 19:005,174 MW5,015 MW
26 Oct, 20:004,933 MW4,906 MW
26 Oct, 21:004,648 MW4,629 MW
26 Oct, 22:004,369 MW4,326 MW
26 Oct, 23:004,084 MW4,083 MW
27 Oct, 00:003,773 MW3,619 MW
27 Oct, 01:003,562 MW3,479 MW
27 Oct, 02:003,496 MW3,411 MW
27 Oct, 03:003,478 MW3,381 MW
27 Oct, 04:003,527 MW3,401 MW
27 Oct, 05:003,692 MW3,513 MW
27 Oct, 06:004,142 MW3,942 MW
27 Oct, 07:004,559 MW4,315 MW
27 Oct, 08:004,868 MW4,595 MW
27 Oct, 09:004,963 MW4,674 MW
27 Oct, 10:004,928 MW4,558 MW
27 Oct, 11:004,941 MW4,488 MW
27 Oct, 12:004,863 MW4,406 MW
27 Oct, 13:004,930 MW4,410 MW
27 Oct, 14:004,930 MW4,365 MW
27 Oct, 15:004,904 MW4,315 MW
27 Oct, 16:004,937 MW4,298 MW
27 Oct, 17:005,175 MW4,353 MW
27 Oct, 18:005,471 MW4,626 MW
27 Oct, 19:005,444 MW4,878 MW
27 Oct, 20:005,234 MW4,732 MW
27 Oct, 21:004,918 MW4,474 MW
27 Oct, 22:004,587 MW4,201 MW
27 Oct, 23:004,211 MW3,939 MW
28 Oct, 00:003,715 MW3,661 MW
28 Oct, 01:003,575 MW3,556 MW
28 Oct, 02:003,536 MW3,497 MW
28 Oct, 03:003,575 MW3,472 MW
28 Oct, 04:003,580 MW3,504 MW
28 Oct, 05:003,682 MW3,646 MW
28 Oct, 06:004,068 MW4,187 MW
28 Oct, 07:004,433 MW4,659 MW
28 Oct, 08:004,676 MW5,017 MW
28 Oct, 09:004,607 MW5,108 MW
28 Oct, 10:004,385 MW5,076 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (677 of 683 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bg/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bg/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_bg_2026,
  title = {{Bulgaria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bg/}
}

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