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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PSCO was off by 23.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 1% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -23.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,687 MW (44.9%) too low at 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PSCO was off by 23.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 1% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -23.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,687 MW (44.9%) too low at 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PSCO came 48 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,133 MW, against average demand of 4,677 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error23.6%
Bias-23.5%
Hours within 5%1%
Worst miss2,687 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,133 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 2,687 MW (44.9%) too low at 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 3,294 MW, reported 5,981 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00)
PSCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 21 Oct, 06:0022 Oct, 06:0023 Oct, 06:0024 Oct, 06:0025 Oct, 06:0026 Oct, 06:0027 Oct, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 06:004,423 MW3,249 MW
21 Oct, 07:004,661 MW3,518 MW
21 Oct, 08:004,654 MW3,703 MW
21 Oct, 09:004,616 MW3,682 MW
21 Oct, 10:004,492 MW3,612 MW
21 Oct, 11:004,505 MW3,566 MW
21 Oct, 12:004,566 MW3,560 MW
21 Oct, 13:004,724 MW3,620 MW
21 Oct, 14:004,905 MW3,663 MW
21 Oct, 15:005,122 MW3,747 MW
21 Oct, 16:005,075 MW3,904 MW
21 Oct, 17:004,993 MW4,051 MW
21 Oct, 18:004,926 MW4,200 MW
21 Oct, 19:004,895 MW4,229 MW
21 Oct, 20:004,798 MW4,087 MW
21 Oct, 21:004,925 MW3,952 MW
21 Oct, 22:004,799 MW3,812 MW
21 Oct, 23:004,472 MW3,582 MW
22 Oct, 00:004,169 MW3,344 MW
22 Oct, 01:003,989 MW3,226 MW
22 Oct, 02:004,106 MW3,149 MW
22 Oct, 03:004,187 MW3,106 MW
22 Oct, 04:004,157 MW3,084 MW
22 Oct, 05:004,274 MW3,105 MW
22 Oct, 06:004,660 MW3,223 MW
22 Oct, 07:004,760 MW3,531 MW
22 Oct, 08:004,837 MW3,784 MW
22 Oct, 09:004,812 MW3,888 MW
22 Oct, 10:004,614 MW3,886 MW
22 Oct, 11:004,746 MW3,858 MW
22 Oct, 12:004,884 MW3,834 MW
22 Oct, 13:004,797 MW3,823 MW
22 Oct, 14:004,852 MW3,819 MW
22 Oct, 15:004,972 MW3,852 MW
22 Oct, 16:005,094 MW3,955 MW
22 Oct, 17:004,789 MW4,058 MW
22 Oct, 18:004,709 MW4,113 MW
22 Oct, 19:004,945 MW4,120 MW
22 Oct, 20:005,119 MW3,983 MW
22 Oct, 21:004,779 MW3,829 MW
22 Oct, 22:004,550 MW3,701 MW
22 Oct, 23:004,612 MW3,554 MW
23 Oct, 00:004,417 MW3,367 MW
23 Oct, 01:004,291 MW3,228 MW
23 Oct, 02:004,162 MW3,141 MW
23 Oct, 03:004,238 MW3,102 MW
23 Oct, 04:004,187 MW3,070 MW
23 Oct, 05:004,468 MW3,097 MW
23 Oct, 06:004,914 MW3,259 MW
23 Oct, 07:005,258 MW3,516 MW
23 Oct, 08:005,422 MW3,707 MW
23 Oct, 09:005,402 MW3,666 MW
23 Oct, 10:005,485 MW3,594 MW
23 Oct, 11:005,615 MW3,543 MW
23 Oct, 12:005,572 MW3,564 MW
23 Oct, 13:005,524 MW3,680 MW
23 Oct, 14:005,596 MW3,760 MW
23 Oct, 15:005,631 MW3,883 MW
23 Oct, 16:005,635 MW3,959 MW
23 Oct, 17:005,342 MW4,075 MW
23 Oct, 18:005,509 MW4,110 MW
23 Oct, 19:005,348 MW4,068 MW
23 Oct, 20:005,210 MW3,942 MW
23 Oct, 21:004,835 MW3,804 MW
23 Oct, 22:004,647 MW3,684 MW
23 Oct, 23:004,741 MW3,523 MW
24 Oct, 00:004,599 MW3,319 MW
24 Oct, 01:004,347 MW3,165 MW
24 Oct, 02:004,304 MW3,075 MW
24 Oct, 03:004,127 MW2,994 MW
24 Oct, 04:004,030 MW2,956 MW
24 Oct, 05:003,909 MW2,928 MW
24 Oct, 06:003,737 MW3,030 MW
24 Oct, 07:003,769 MW3,222 MW
24 Oct, 08:003,957 MW3,448 MW
24 Oct, 09:004,452 MW3,423 MW
24 Oct, 10:004,843 MW3,413 MW
24 Oct, 11:004,723 MW3,385 MW
24 Oct, 12:004,775 MW3,390 MW
24 Oct, 13:004,888 MW3,418 MW
24 Oct, 14:004,622 MW3,484 MW
24 Oct, 15:004,644 MW3,508 MW
24 Oct, 16:004,627 MW3,659 MW
24 Oct, 17:004,617 MW3,809 MW
24 Oct, 18:004,721 MW3,959 MW
24 Oct, 19:004,771 MW3,983 MW
24 Oct, 20:004,715 MW3,871 MW
24 Oct, 21:004,615 MW3,729 MW
24 Oct, 22:004,250 MW3,638 MW
24 Oct, 23:004,178 MW3,468 MW
25 Oct, 00:003,945 MW3,327 MW
25 Oct, 01:003,767 MW3,192 MW
25 Oct, 02:003,693 MW3,119 MW
25 Oct, 03:003,680 MW3,056 MW
25 Oct, 04:003,658 MW3,006 MW
25 Oct, 05:003,691 MW2,981 MW
25 Oct, 06:003,731 MW3,015 MW
25 Oct, 07:003,929 MW3,155 MW
25 Oct, 08:004,146 MW3,344 MW
25 Oct, 09:004,076 MW3,363 MW
25 Oct, 10:004,003 MW3,304 MW
25 Oct, 11:003,912 MW3,188 MW
25 Oct, 12:003,773 MW3,159 MW
25 Oct, 13:003,825 MW3,149 MW
25 Oct, 14:004,066 MW3,170 MW
25 Oct, 15:004,112 MW3,301 MW
25 Oct, 16:004,091 MW3,528 MW
25 Oct, 17:004,498 MW3,760 MW
25 Oct, 18:004,733 MW3,937 MW
25 Oct, 19:004,687 MW3,989 MW
25 Oct, 20:004,718 MW3,881 MW
25 Oct, 21:004,508 MW3,748 MW
25 Oct, 22:004,296 MW3,607 MW
25 Oct, 23:003,965 MW3,402 MW
26 Oct, 00:003,661 MW3,280 MW
26 Oct, 01:003,433 MW3,146 MW
26 Oct, 02:003,271 MW3,101 MW
26 Oct, 03:003,295 MW3,103 MW
26 Oct, 04:003,351 MW3,131 MW
26 Oct, 05:003,889 MW3,227 MW
26 Oct, 06:004,215 MW3,403 MW
26 Oct, 07:004,535 MW3,697 MW
26 Oct, 08:004,946 MW3,872 MW
26 Oct, 09:004,994 MW3,851 MW
26 Oct, 10:004,861 MW3,762 MW
26 Oct, 11:004,603 MW3,678 MW
26 Oct, 12:004,434 MW3,619 MW
26 Oct, 13:004,293 MW3,585 MW
26 Oct, 14:003,750 MW3,535 MW
26 Oct, 15:004,478 MW3,568 MW
26 Oct, 16:004,482 MW3,669 MW
26 Oct, 17:004,619 MW3,870 MW
26 Oct, 18:004,697 MW4,018 MW
26 Oct, 19:004,693 MW4,075 MW
26 Oct, 20:004,542 MW3,982 MW
26 Oct, 21:004,387 MW3,832 MW
26 Oct, 22:004,154 MW3,723 MW
26 Oct, 23:004,043 MW3,549 MW
27 Oct, 00:004,042 MW3,395 MW
27 Oct, 01:003,966 MW3,265 MW
27 Oct, 02:004,061 MW3,201 MW
27 Oct, 03:004,076 MW3,187 MW
27 Oct, 04:004,060 MW3,233 MW
27 Oct, 05:004,309 MW3,298 MW
27 Oct, 06:004,748 MW3,468 MW
27 Oct, 07:005,075 MW3,714 MW
27 Oct, 08:004,861 MW3,819 MW
27 Oct, 09:004,836 MW3,718 MW
27 Oct, 10:004,516 MW3,564 MW
27 Oct, 11:004,421 MW3,438 MW
27 Oct, 12:004,570 MW3,383 MW
27 Oct, 13:004,539 MW3,334 MW
27 Oct, 14:004,452 MW3,325 MW
27 Oct, 15:004,689 MW3,404 MW
27 Oct, 16:004,963 MW3,535 MW
27 Oct, 17:004,946 MW3,736 MW
27 Oct, 18:004,812 MW3,909 MW
27 Oct, 19:004,756 MW3,983 MW
27 Oct, 20:004,582 MW3,940 MW
27 Oct, 21:004,387 MW3,804 MW
27 Oct, 22:004,202 MW3,691 MW
27 Oct, 23:004,059 MW3,544 MW
28 Oct, 00:003,460 MW3,401 MW
28 Oct, 01:003,241 MW3,266 MW
28 Oct, 02:003,215 MW3,198 MW
28 Oct, 03:003,312 MW3,197 MW
28 Oct, 04:003,460 MW3,213 MW
28 Oct, 05:003,726 MW3,325 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psco/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psco/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_psco_2026,
  title = {{PSCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psco/}
}

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