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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for NEVP was off by 8.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 37% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -8.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,762 MW (30.2%) too low at 28 Sept 2026, 11:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for NEVP was off by 8.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 37% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -8.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,762 MW (30.2%) too low at 28 Sept 2026, 11:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, NEVP came 41 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 419 MW, against average demand of 4,666 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 8% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error8.8%
Bias-8.3%
Hours within 5%37%
Worst miss1,762 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-400 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,762 MW (30.2%) too low at 28 Sept 2026, 11:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 4,064 MW, reported 5,826 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
NEVP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for NEVP over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 21 Oct, 05:0022 Oct, 05:0023 Oct, 05:0024 Oct, 05:0025 Oct, 05:0026 Oct, 05:0027 Oct, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for NEVP over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:003,966 MW3,518 MW
21 Oct, 06:004,157 MW3,713 MW
21 Oct, 07:004,222 MW3,780 MW
21 Oct, 08:004,557 MW3,776 MW
21 Oct, 09:004,766 MW3,772 MW
21 Oct, 10:004,943 MW3,707 MW
21 Oct, 11:005,001 MW3,693 MW
21 Oct, 12:004,980 MW3,767 MW
21 Oct, 13:005,487 MW3,815 MW
21 Oct, 14:005,687 MW4,045 MW
21 Oct, 15:005,885 MW4,330 MW
21 Oct, 16:005,416 MW4,455 MW
21 Oct, 17:005,157 MW4,565 MW
21 Oct, 18:005,333 MW4,612 MW
21 Oct, 19:005,379 MW4,648 MW
21 Oct, 20:004,923 MW4,530 MW
21 Oct, 21:004,912 MW4,366 MW
21 Oct, 22:004,858 MW4,124 MW
21 Oct, 23:004,428 MW3,906 MW
22 Oct, 00:004,222 MW3,642 MW
22 Oct, 01:004,075 MW3,517 MW
22 Oct, 02:003,978 MW3,429 MW
22 Oct, 03:003,915 MW3,383 MW
22 Oct, 04:003,919 MW3,413 MW
22 Oct, 05:004,036 MW3,572 MW
22 Oct, 06:004,218 MW3,778 MW
22 Oct, 07:004,303 MW3,939 MW
22 Oct, 08:004,514 MW3,972 MW
22 Oct, 09:004,689 MW3,950 MW
22 Oct, 10:005,031 MW3,834 MW
22 Oct, 11:005,197 MW3,813 MW
22 Oct, 12:004,874 MW3,760 MW
22 Oct, 13:005,021 MW3,803 MW
22 Oct, 14:004,857 MW4,044 MW
22 Oct, 15:004,948 MW4,196 MW
22 Oct, 16:004,978 MW4,330 MW
22 Oct, 17:004,541 MW4,557 MW
22 Oct, 18:004,633 MW4,631 MW
22 Oct, 19:004,589 MW4,640 MW
22 Oct, 20:004,430 MW4,592 MW
22 Oct, 21:004,394 MW4,406 MW
22 Oct, 22:004,105 MW4,251 MW
22 Oct, 23:003,971 MW4,101 MW
23 Oct, 00:003,918 MW3,596 MW
23 Oct, 01:003,809 MW3,512 MW
23 Oct, 02:003,734 MW3,423 MW
23 Oct, 03:003,682 MW3,406 MW
23 Oct, 04:003,647 MW3,384 MW
23 Oct, 05:003,781 MW3,495 MW
23 Oct, 06:003,983 MW3,706 MW
23 Oct, 07:004,038 MW3,710 MW
23 Oct, 08:004,380 MW3,697 MW
23 Oct, 09:004,548 MW3,616 MW
23 Oct, 10:004,443 MW3,648 MW
23 Oct, 11:004,405 MW3,647 MW
23 Oct, 12:004,360 MW3,634 MW
23 Oct, 13:004,300 MW3,649 MW
23 Oct, 14:004,345 MW3,820 MW
23 Oct, 15:004,371 MW3,983 MW
23 Oct, 16:004,693 MW4,105 MW
23 Oct, 17:004,470 MW4,360 MW
23 Oct, 18:004,543 MW4,431 MW
23 Oct, 19:004,488 MW4,404 MW
23 Oct, 20:004,380 MW4,361 MW
23 Oct, 21:004,282 MW4,276 MW
23 Oct, 22:004,043 MW4,122 MW
23 Oct, 23:003,840 MW4,045 MW
24 Oct, 00:003,818 MW3,705 MW
24 Oct, 01:003,713 MW3,592 MW
24 Oct, 02:003,624 MW3,512 MW
24 Oct, 03:003,580 MW3,448 MW
24 Oct, 04:003,580 MW3,417 MW
24 Oct, 05:003,627 MW3,445 MW
24 Oct, 06:003,724 MW3,546 MW
24 Oct, 07:003,688 MW3,645 MW
24 Oct, 08:004,111 MW3,664 MW
24 Oct, 09:004,543 MW3,563 MW
24 Oct, 10:004,498 MW3,507 MW
24 Oct, 11:004,293 MW3,530 MW
24 Oct, 12:004,438 MW3,474 MW
24 Oct, 13:004,141 MW3,536 MW
24 Oct, 14:004,225 MW3,764 MW
24 Oct, 15:004,234 MW3,926 MW
24 Oct, 16:004,264 MW4,103 MW
24 Oct, 17:004,288 MW4,301 MW
24 Oct, 18:004,466 MW4,343 MW
24 Oct, 19:004,369 MW4,337 MW
24 Oct, 20:004,297 MW4,218 MW
24 Oct, 21:004,217 MW4,145 MW
24 Oct, 22:004,057 MW3,964 MW
24 Oct, 23:003,910 MW3,897 MW
25 Oct, 00:003,794 MW3,630 MW
25 Oct, 01:003,673 MW3,548 MW
25 Oct, 02:003,570 MW3,486 MW
25 Oct, 03:003,550 MW3,436 MW
25 Oct, 04:003,551 MW3,381 MW
25 Oct, 05:003,585 MW3,393 MW
25 Oct, 06:003,660 MW3,433 MW
25 Oct, 07:003,700 MW3,450 MW
25 Oct, 08:004,017 MW3,474 MW
25 Oct, 09:004,293 MW3,404 MW
25 Oct, 10:004,174 MW3,339 MW
25 Oct, 11:004,161 MW3,343 MW
25 Oct, 12:004,289 MW3,336 MW
25 Oct, 13:004,432 MW3,396 MW
25 Oct, 14:004,278 MW3,601 MW
25 Oct, 15:004,437 MW3,753 MW
25 Oct, 16:004,376 MW4,014 MW
25 Oct, 17:004,480 MW4,251 MW
25 Oct, 18:004,576 MW4,253 MW
25 Oct, 19:004,497 MW4,210 MW
25 Oct, 20:004,392 MW4,112 MW
25 Oct, 21:004,253 MW4,014 MW
25 Oct, 22:004,089 MW3,851 MW
25 Oct, 23:003,880 MW3,789 MW
26 Oct, 00:003,758 MW3,484 MW
26 Oct, 01:003,663 MW3,426 MW
26 Oct, 02:003,599 MW3,408 MW
26 Oct, 03:003,569 MW3,349 MW
26 Oct, 04:003,613 MW3,360 MW
26 Oct, 05:003,749 MW3,449 MW
26 Oct, 06:003,953 MW3,603 MW
26 Oct, 07:004,043 MW3,746 MW
26 Oct, 08:004,459 MW3,730 MW
26 Oct, 09:004,543 MW3,604 MW
26 Oct, 10:004,592 MW3,512 MW
26 Oct, 11:004,661 MW3,482 MW
26 Oct, 12:004,663 MW3,490 MW
26 Oct, 13:004,518 MW3,535 MW
26 Oct, 14:004,195 MW3,743 MW
26 Oct, 15:004,327 MW3,940 MW
26 Oct, 16:004,508 MW4,215 MW
26 Oct, 17:004,718 MW4,483 MW
26 Oct, 18:004,820 MW4,487 MW
26 Oct, 19:004,672 MW4,495 MW
26 Oct, 20:004,491 MW4,343 MW
26 Oct, 21:004,450 MW4,207 MW
26 Oct, 22:004,161 MW4,022 MW
26 Oct, 23:003,907 MW3,880 MW
27 Oct, 00:003,846 MW3,492 MW
27 Oct, 01:003,741 MW3,432 MW
27 Oct, 02:003,512 MW3,368 MW
27 Oct, 03:003,640 MW3,334 MW
27 Oct, 04:003,663 MW3,357 MW
27 Oct, 05:003,793 MW3,479 MW
27 Oct, 06:004,009 MW3,709 MW
27 Oct, 07:004,050 MW3,797 MW
27 Oct, 08:004,091 MW3,687 MW
27 Oct, 09:004,548 MW3,540 MW
27 Oct, 10:004,699 MW3,446 MW
27 Oct, 11:004,711 MW3,412 MW
27 Oct, 12:004,718 MW3,466 MW
27 Oct, 13:004,613 MW3,604 MW
27 Oct, 14:004,441 MW3,847 MW
27 Oct, 15:004,394 MW4,020 MW
27 Oct, 16:004,579 MW4,340 MW
27 Oct, 17:004,636 MW4,477 MW
27 Oct, 18:004,753 MW4,417 MW
27 Oct, 19:004,736 MW4,390 MW
27 Oct, 20:004,538 MW4,215 MW
27 Oct, 21:004,493 MW4,071 MW
27 Oct, 22:004,208 MW3,887 MW
27 Oct, 23:004,012 MW3,666 MW
28 Oct, 00:003,887 MW3,598 MW
28 Oct, 01:003,786 MW3,541 MW
28 Oct, 02:003,706 MW3,458 MW
28 Oct, 03:003,678 MW3,454 MW
28 Oct, 04:003,714 MW3,469 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nevp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nevp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_nevp_2026,
  title = {{NEVP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/nevp/}
}

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