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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PACW was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 90% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 269 MW (11.5%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PACW was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 90% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 269 MW (11.5%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PACW came 11 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 55 MW, against average demand of 2,232 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 62% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.4%
Bias+0.8%
Hours within 5%90%
Worst miss269 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+18 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 269 MW (11.5%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 2,079 MW, reported 2,348 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
PACW day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACW over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 21 Oct, 05:0022 Oct, 05:0023 Oct, 05:0024 Oct, 05:0025 Oct, 05:0026 Oct, 05:0027 Oct, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACW over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:002,163 MW2,178 MW
21 Oct, 06:002,444 MW2,428 MW
21 Oct, 07:002,616 MW2,581 MW
21 Oct, 08:002,611 MW2,595 MW
21 Oct, 09:002,529 MW2,529 MW
21 Oct, 10:002,415 MW2,454 MW
21 Oct, 11:002,309 MW2,396 MW
21 Oct, 12:002,263 MW2,377 MW
21 Oct, 13:002,225 MW2,385 MW
21 Oct, 14:002,218 MW2,403 MW
21 Oct, 15:002,224 MW2,445 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,295 MW2,506 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,370 MW2,585 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,446 MW2,640 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,452 MW2,621 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,365 MW2,520 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,271 MW2,367 MW
21 Oct, 22:002,115 MW2,203 MW
21 Oct, 23:002,002 MW2,061 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,912 MW1,968 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,865 MW1,932 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,876 MW1,913 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,869 MW1,917 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,941 MW2,001 MW
22 Oct, 05:002,117 MW2,203 MW
22 Oct, 06:002,393 MW2,461 MW
22 Oct, 07:002,552 MW2,628 MW
22 Oct, 08:002,595 MW2,651 MW
22 Oct, 09:002,590 MW2,574 MW
22 Oct, 10:002,567 MW2,496 MW
22 Oct, 11:002,545 MW2,423 MW
22 Oct, 12:002,520 MW2,387 MW
22 Oct, 13:002,477 MW2,368 MW
22 Oct, 14:002,438 MW2,352 MW
22 Oct, 15:002,426 MW2,343 MW
22 Oct, 16:002,454 MW2,388 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,510 MW2,441 MW
22 Oct, 18:002,552 MW2,528 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,541 MW2,540 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,476 MW2,473 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,359 MW2,352 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,202 MW2,207 MW
22 Oct, 23:002,087 MW2,083 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,989 MW2,004 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,956 MW1,950 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,935 MW1,929 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,960 MW1,944 MW
23 Oct, 04:002,029 MW2,014 MW
23 Oct, 05:002,223 MW2,194 MW
23 Oct, 06:002,498 MW2,465 MW
23 Oct, 07:002,681 MW2,664 MW
23 Oct, 08:002,706 MW2,668 MW
23 Oct, 09:002,603 MW2,571 MW
23 Oct, 10:002,506 MW2,469 MW
23 Oct, 11:002,382 MW2,382 MW
23 Oct, 12:002,303 MW2,316 MW
23 Oct, 13:002,250 MW2,264 MW
23 Oct, 14:002,200 MW2,229 MW
23 Oct, 15:002,201 MW2,233 MW
23 Oct, 16:002,262 MW2,281 MW
23 Oct, 17:002,363 MW2,359 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,431 MW2,452 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,445 MW2,468 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,410 MW2,414 MW
23 Oct, 21:002,342 MW2,324 MW
23 Oct, 22:002,244 MW2,209 MW
23 Oct, 23:002,152 MW2,108 MW
24 Oct, 00:002,086 MW2,037 MW
24 Oct, 01:002,063 MW1,997 MW
24 Oct, 02:002,064 MW1,985 MW
24 Oct, 03:002,085 MW1,999 MW
24 Oct, 04:002,150 MW2,045 MW
24 Oct, 05:002,277 MW2,150 MW
24 Oct, 06:002,449 MW2,314 MW
24 Oct, 07:002,622 MW2,477 MW
24 Oct, 08:002,701 MW2,517 MW
24 Oct, 09:002,627 MW2,427 MW
24 Oct, 10:002,475 MW2,298 MW
24 Oct, 11:002,334 MW2,176 MW
24 Oct, 12:002,226 MW2,095 MW
24 Oct, 13:002,149 MW2,087 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,109 MW2,063 MW
24 Oct, 15:002,123 MW2,096 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,182 MW2,153 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,271 MW2,218 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,360 MW2,275 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,352 MW2,288 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,318 MW2,242 MW
24 Oct, 21:002,237 MW2,159 MW
24 Oct, 22:002,148 MW2,054 MW
24 Oct, 23:002,047 MW1,974 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,987 MW1,930 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,944 MW1,890 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,933 MW1,874 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,948 MW1,882 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,991 MW1,918 MW
25 Oct, 05:002,082 MW2,002 MW
25 Oct, 06:002,225 MW2,144 MW
25 Oct, 07:002,361 MW2,287 MW
25 Oct, 08:002,469 MW2,378 MW
25 Oct, 09:002,510 MW2,326 MW
25 Oct, 10:002,449 MW2,253 MW
25 Oct, 11:002,416 MW2,178 MW
25 Oct, 12:002,378 MW2,125 MW
25 Oct, 13:002,348 MW2,079 MW
25 Oct, 14:002,327 MW2,059 MW
25 Oct, 15:002,343 MW2,080 MW
25 Oct, 16:002,375 MW2,139 MW
25 Oct, 17:002,457 MW2,245 MW
25 Oct, 18:002,507 MW2,360 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,490 MW2,386 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,414 MW2,335 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,318 MW2,237 MW
25 Oct, 22:002,153 MW2,093 MW
25 Oct, 23:002,033 MW1,976 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,954 MW1,918 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,909 MW1,885 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,881 MW1,882 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,904 MW1,911 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,999 MW2,003 MW
26 Oct, 05:002,175 MW2,212 MW
26 Oct, 06:002,431 MW2,515 MW
26 Oct, 07:002,611 MW2,725 MW
26 Oct, 08:002,668 MW2,731 MW
26 Oct, 09:002,661 MW2,679 MW
26 Oct, 10:002,624 MW2,588 MW
26 Oct, 11:002,548 MW2,499 MW
26 Oct, 12:002,492 MW2,435 MW
26 Oct, 13:002,455 MW2,393 MW
26 Oct, 14:002,401 MW2,355 MW
26 Oct, 15:002,422 MW2,350 MW
26 Oct, 16:002,454 MW2,384 MW
26 Oct, 17:002,546 MW2,478 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,626 MW2,568 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,589 MW2,588 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,526 MW2,516 MW
26 Oct, 21:002,403 MW2,391 MW
26 Oct, 22:002,247 MW2,248 MW
26 Oct, 23:002,115 MW2,126 MW
27 Oct, 00:002,033 MW2,042 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,989 MW2,041 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,967 MW2,029 MW
27 Oct, 03:002,006 MW2,052 MW
27 Oct, 04:002,058 MW2,129 MW
27 Oct, 05:002,262 MW2,331 MW
27 Oct, 06:002,538 MW2,624 MW
27 Oct, 07:002,689 MW2,818 MW
27 Oct, 08:002,703 MW2,818 MW
27 Oct, 09:002,673 MW2,740 MW
27 Oct, 10:002,652 MW2,661 MW
27 Oct, 11:002,567 MW2,590 MW
27 Oct, 12:002,532 MW2,550 MW
27 Oct, 13:002,448 MW2,501 MW
27 Oct, 14:002,447 MW2,445 MW
27 Oct, 15:002,406 MW2,400 MW
27 Oct, 16:002,451 MW2,408 MW
27 Oct, 17:002,535 MW2,524 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,636 MW2,642 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,647 MW2,655 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,572 MW2,593 MW
27 Oct, 21:002,460 MW2,476 MW
27 Oct, 22:002,312 MW2,315 MW
27 Oct, 23:002,182 MW2,188 MW
28 Oct, 00:002,116 MW2,138 MW
28 Oct, 01:002,082 MW2,107 MW
28 Oct, 02:002,057 MW2,087 MW
28 Oct, 03:002,079 MW2,102 MW
28 Oct, 04:002,089 MW2,192 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pacw/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pacw/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pacw_2026,
  title = {{PACW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pacw/}
}

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