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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for FMPP was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 71% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 501 MW (19.3%) too high at 1 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for FMPP was off by 3.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 71% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 501 MW (19.3%) too high at 1 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, FMPP came 27 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 85 MW, against average demand of 2,200 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 53% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.8%
Bias+0.4%
Hours within 5%71%
Worst miss501 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+16 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 501 MW (19.3%) too high at 1 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 3,100 MW, reported 2,599 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
FMPP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FMPP over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 21 Oct, 08:0022 Oct, 08:0023 Oct, 08:0024 Oct, 08:0025 Oct, 08:0026 Oct, 08:0027 Oct, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FMPP over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 08:001,740 MW1,790 MW
21 Oct, 09:001,812 MW1,853 MW
21 Oct, 10:001,891 MW1,935 MW
21 Oct, 11:002,007 MW2,035 MW
21 Oct, 12:002,137 MW2,154 MW
21 Oct, 13:002,254 MW2,237 MW
21 Oct, 14:002,362 MW2,309 MW
21 Oct, 15:002,465 MW2,375 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,509 MW2,400 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,220 MW2,410 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,770 MW2,375 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,440 MW2,324 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,324 MW2,201 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,171 MW1,998 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,954 MW1,811 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,763 MW1,629 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,585 MW1,517 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,475 MW1,440 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,403 MW1,385 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,373 MW1,371 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,379 MW1,413 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,481 MW1,546 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,632 MW1,693 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,735 MW1,748 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,779 MW1,801 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,837 MW1,869 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,901 MW1,936 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,975 MW2,020 MW
22 Oct, 12:002,074 MW2,171 MW
22 Oct, 13:002,153 MW2,266 MW
22 Oct, 14:002,246 MW2,344 MW
22 Oct, 15:002,393 MW2,409 MW
22 Oct, 16:002,418 MW2,463 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,422 MW2,376 MW
22 Oct, 18:002,355 MW2,318 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,331 MW2,249 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,220 MW2,140 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,087 MW1,994 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,898 MW1,803 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,718 MW1,639 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,558 MW1,538 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,455 MW1,453 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,388 MW1,394 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,354 MW1,378 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,382 MW1,404 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,465 MW1,535 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,615 MW1,689 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,709 MW1,765 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,762 MW1,819 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,825 MW1,889 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,910 MW1,973 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,986 MW2,098 MW
23 Oct, 12:002,079 MW2,120 MW
23 Oct, 13:002,178 MW2,206 MW
23 Oct, 14:002,261 MW2,297 MW
23 Oct, 15:002,321 MW2,382 MW
23 Oct, 16:002,380 MW2,422 MW
23 Oct, 17:002,359 MW2,441 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,275 MW2,394 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,240 MW2,355 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,146 MW2,246 MW
23 Oct, 21:002,026 MW2,067 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,903 MW1,893 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,766 MW1,716 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,623 MW1,527 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,530 MW1,437 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,458 MW1,383 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,413 MW1,356 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,397 MW1,361 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,417 MW1,424 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,484 MW1,494 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,536 MW1,569 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,655 MW1,701 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,767 MW1,813 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,887 MW1,908 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,980 MW2,005 MW
24 Oct, 12:002,112 MW2,097 MW
24 Oct, 13:002,204 MW2,180 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,282 MW2,244 MW
24 Oct, 15:002,318 MW2,279 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,312 MW2,288 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,182 MW2,275 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,125 MW2,246 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,092 MW2,209 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,028 MW2,110 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,954 MW1,993 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,853 MW1,832 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,795 MW1,680 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,686 MW1,549 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,598 MW1,469 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,524 MW1,415 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,481 MW1,385 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,470 MW1,392 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,484 MW1,437 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,522 MW1,505 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,587 MW1,610 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,694 MW1,764 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,874 MW1,878 MW
25 Oct, 10:002,011 MW1,969 MW
25 Oct, 11:002,139 MW2,059 MW
25 Oct, 12:002,252 MW2,144 MW
25 Oct, 13:002,344 MW2,200 MW
25 Oct, 14:002,421 MW2,249 MW
25 Oct, 15:002,454 MW2,290 MW
25 Oct, 16:002,455 MW2,295 MW
25 Oct, 17:002,349 MW2,285 MW
25 Oct, 18:002,228 MW2,240 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,218 MW2,183 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,156 MW2,080 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,037 MW1,954 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,902 MW1,798 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,812 MW1,648 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,694 MW1,518 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,592 MW1,435 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,523 MW1,393 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,485 MW1,375 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,512 MW1,422 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,612 MW1,529 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,760 MW1,663 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,855 MW1,780 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,921 MW1,880 MW
26 Oct, 09:002,029 MW1,964 MW
26 Oct, 10:002,152 MW2,052 MW
26 Oct, 11:002,254 MW2,139 MW
26 Oct, 12:002,355 MW2,234 MW
26 Oct, 13:002,427 MW2,312 MW
26 Oct, 14:002,482 MW2,364 MW
26 Oct, 15:002,515 MW2,402 MW
26 Oct, 16:002,547 MW2,420 MW
26 Oct, 17:002,468 MW2,398 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,352 MW2,370 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,358 MW2,304 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,260 MW2,150 MW
26 Oct, 21:002,111 MW1,993 MW
26 Oct, 22:002,018 MW1,816 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,845 MW1,639 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,681 MW1,621 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,578 MW1,530 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,503 MW1,478 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,469 MW1,459 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,480 MW1,524 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,569 MW1,669 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,719 MW1,816 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,807 MW1,874 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,853 MW1,957 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,926 MW2,067 MW
27 Oct, 10:002,031 MW2,152 MW
27 Oct, 11:002,152 MW2,252 MW
27 Oct, 12:002,256 MW2,347 MW
27 Oct, 13:002,343 MW2,456 MW
27 Oct, 14:002,398 MW2,553 MW
27 Oct, 15:002,462 MW2,608 MW
27 Oct, 16:002,515 MW2,613 MW
27 Oct, 17:002,429 MW2,574 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,373 MW2,482 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,365 MW2,400 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,295 MW2,268 MW
27 Oct, 21:002,181 MW2,115 MW
27 Oct, 22:002,088 MW1,923 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,913 MW1,758 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,763 MW1,620 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,648 MW1,509 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,574 MW1,450 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,550 MW1,452 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,564 MW1,512 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,675 MW1,651 MW
28 Oct, 06:001,822 MW1,784 MW
28 Oct, 07:001,824 MW1,868 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fmpp_2026,
  title = {{FMPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fmpp/

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