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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PACE was off by 8.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 37% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +6.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,098 MW (36.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PACE was off by 8.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 37% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +6.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,098 MW (36.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PACE came 40 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 467 MW, against average demand of 5,588 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 73% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error8.6%
Bias+6.3%
Hours within 5%37%
Worst miss2,098 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+320 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 2,098 MW (36.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 7,789 MW, reported 5,691 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00)
PACE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACE over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 21 Oct, 06:0022 Oct, 06:0023 Oct, 06:0024 Oct, 06:0025 Oct, 06:0026 Oct, 06:0027 Oct, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACE over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 06:005,509 MW5,525 MW
21 Oct, 07:005,500 MW5,780 MW
21 Oct, 08:005,649 MW5,900 MW
21 Oct, 09:005,653 MW5,939 MW
21 Oct, 10:005,567 MW5,987 MW
21 Oct, 11:005,598 MW6,038 MW
21 Oct, 12:005,894 MW6,099 MW
21 Oct, 13:005,865 MW6,178 MW
21 Oct, 14:006,046 MW6,261 MW
21 Oct, 15:006,154 MW6,328 MW
21 Oct, 16:005,776 MW6,378 MW
21 Oct, 17:005,627 MW6,416 MW
21 Oct, 18:005,439 MW6,429 MW
21 Oct, 19:005,779 MW6,376 MW
21 Oct, 20:005,724 MW6,239 MW
21 Oct, 21:005,682 MW6,032 MW
21 Oct, 22:004,991 MW5,771 MW
21 Oct, 23:004,771 MW5,503 MW
22 Oct, 00:004,813 MW5,289 MW
22 Oct, 01:005,231 MW5,150 MW
22 Oct, 02:004,886 MW4,974 MW
22 Oct, 03:004,810 MW4,946 MW
22 Oct, 04:004,837 MW4,998 MW
22 Oct, 05:005,004 MW5,169 MW
22 Oct, 06:005,176 MW5,483 MW
22 Oct, 07:005,312 MW5,787 MW
22 Oct, 08:005,674 MW5,909 MW
22 Oct, 09:005,728 MW5,957 MW
22 Oct, 10:006,267 MW6,001 MW
22 Oct, 11:006,303 MW6,019 MW
22 Oct, 12:006,260 MW6,041 MW
22 Oct, 13:006,351 MW6,123 MW
22 Oct, 14:006,216 MW6,209 MW
22 Oct, 15:005,834 MW6,252 MW
22 Oct, 16:005,782 MW6,268 MW
22 Oct, 17:005,640 MW6,251 MW
22 Oct, 18:005,455 MW6,208 MW
22 Oct, 19:005,378 MW6,149 MW
22 Oct, 20:005,270 MW6,071 MW
22 Oct, 21:005,659 MW5,924 MW
22 Oct, 22:005,518 MW5,689 MW
22 Oct, 23:005,173 MW5,440 MW
23 Oct, 00:005,067 MW5,211 MW
23 Oct, 01:005,169 MW5,160 MW
23 Oct, 02:005,033 MW4,940 MW
23 Oct, 03:005,054 MW4,918 MW
23 Oct, 04:005,031 MW4,969 MW
23 Oct, 05:004,990 MW5,127 MW
23 Oct, 06:005,221 MW5,416 MW
23 Oct, 07:005,504 MW5,750 MW
23 Oct, 08:005,732 MW5,843 MW
23 Oct, 09:006,224 MW5,871 MW
23 Oct, 10:006,346 MW5,834 MW
23 Oct, 11:006,427 MW5,808 MW
23 Oct, 12:006,487 MW5,797 MW
23 Oct, 13:006,552 MW5,858 MW
23 Oct, 14:006,262 MW5,936 MW
23 Oct, 15:006,307 MW5,997 MW
23 Oct, 16:006,289 MW6,027 MW
23 Oct, 17:006,007 MW6,051 MW
23 Oct, 18:005,315 MW6,046 MW
23 Oct, 19:005,755 MW5,973 MW
23 Oct, 20:005,585 MW5,907 MW
23 Oct, 21:005,289 MW5,770 MW
23 Oct, 22:004,831 MW5,603 MW
23 Oct, 23:005,199 MW5,404 MW
24 Oct, 00:005,050 MW5,231 MW
24 Oct, 01:005,228 MW5,116 MW
24 Oct, 02:005,031 MW5,046 MW
24 Oct, 03:004,992 MW5,021 MW
24 Oct, 04:004,961 MW5,046 MW
24 Oct, 05:004,932 MW5,124 MW
24 Oct, 06:005,068 MW5,259 MW
24 Oct, 07:004,700 MW5,469 MW
24 Oct, 08:004,919 MW5,570 MW
24 Oct, 09:005,914 MW5,585 MW
24 Oct, 10:005,766 MW5,577 MW
24 Oct, 11:005,816 MW5,552 MW
24 Oct, 12:006,105 MW5,538 MW
24 Oct, 13:006,214 MW5,535 MW
24 Oct, 14:006,222 MW5,555 MW
24 Oct, 15:006,020 MW5,583 MW
24 Oct, 16:005,864 MW5,663 MW
24 Oct, 17:005,760 MW5,772 MW
24 Oct, 18:004,886 MW5,883 MW
24 Oct, 19:004,993 MW5,948 MW
24 Oct, 20:005,031 MW5,926 MW
24 Oct, 21:005,230 MW5,800 MW
24 Oct, 22:005,128 MW5,636 MW
24 Oct, 23:005,077 MW5,443 MW
25 Oct, 00:005,079 MW5,279 MW
25 Oct, 01:005,445 MW5,219 MW
25 Oct, 02:005,237 MW5,136 MW
25 Oct, 03:005,103 MW5,090 MW
25 Oct, 04:005,462 MW5,101 MW
25 Oct, 05:005,215 MW5,148 MW
25 Oct, 06:005,139 MW5,243 MW
25 Oct, 07:004,710 MW5,367 MW
25 Oct, 08:005,311 MW5,467 MW
25 Oct, 09:005,570 MW5,500 MW
25 Oct, 10:005,732 MW5,488 MW
25 Oct, 11:005,820 MW5,509 MW
25 Oct, 12:006,013 MW5,547 MW
25 Oct, 13:005,885 MW5,561 MW
25 Oct, 14:005,848 MW5,545 MW
25 Oct, 15:005,999 MW5,556 MW
25 Oct, 16:005,847 MW5,601 MW
25 Oct, 17:005,748 MW5,692 MW
25 Oct, 18:005,271 MW5,817 MW
25 Oct, 19:005,247 MW5,910 MW
25 Oct, 20:004,927 MW5,892 MW
25 Oct, 21:004,766 MW5,774 MW
25 Oct, 22:004,655 MW5,584 MW
25 Oct, 23:004,971 MW5,386 MW
26 Oct, 00:005,013 MW5,233 MW
26 Oct, 01:005,204 MW5,148 MW
26 Oct, 02:005,209 MW5,102 MW
26 Oct, 03:005,004 MW5,098 MW
26 Oct, 04:005,058 MW5,179 MW
26 Oct, 05:005,131 MW5,398 MW
26 Oct, 06:005,378 MW5,734 MW
26 Oct, 07:005,428 MW6,024 MW
26 Oct, 08:005,553 MW6,140 MW
26 Oct, 09:005,834 MW6,122 MW
26 Oct, 10:006,038 MW6,098 MW
26 Oct, 11:006,032 MW6,099 MW
26 Oct, 12:005,977 MW6,108 MW
26 Oct, 13:006,007 MW6,108 MW
26 Oct, 14:005,936 MW6,080 MW
26 Oct, 15:006,244 MW6,032 MW
26 Oct, 16:006,421 MW6,016 MW
26 Oct, 17:006,341 MW6,076 MW
26 Oct, 18:005,606 MW6,190 MW
26 Oct, 19:005,523 MW6,252 MW
26 Oct, 20:005,755 MW6,188 MW
26 Oct, 21:005,547 MW6,013 MW
26 Oct, 22:005,322 MW5,774 MW
26 Oct, 23:005,371 MW5,534 MW
27 Oct, 00:005,434 MW5,354 MW
27 Oct, 01:004,955 MW5,236 MW
27 Oct, 02:005,081 MW5,157 MW
27 Oct, 03:005,086 MW5,128 MW
27 Oct, 04:005,112 MW5,189 MW
27 Oct, 05:005,284 MW5,397 MW
27 Oct, 06:005,578 MW5,759 MW
27 Oct, 07:005,922 MW6,118 MW
27 Oct, 08:005,944 MW6,200 MW
27 Oct, 09:006,702 MW6,147 MW
27 Oct, 10:006,328 MW6,090 MW
27 Oct, 11:006,508 MW6,070 MW
27 Oct, 12:006,414 MW6,062 MW
27 Oct, 13:006,496 MW6,057 MW
27 Oct, 14:006,240 MW6,028 MW
27 Oct, 15:006,173 MW5,999 MW
27 Oct, 16:006,050 MW6,045 MW
27 Oct, 17:005,751 MW6,129 MW
27 Oct, 18:005,393 MW6,232 MW
27 Oct, 19:004,906 MW6,276 MW
27 Oct, 20:005,013 MW6,226 MW
27 Oct, 21:005,309 MW6,067 MW
27 Oct, 22:005,213 MW5,823 MW
27 Oct, 23:005,064 MW5,570 MW
28 Oct, 00:005,455 MW5,390 MW
28 Oct, 01:004,645 MW5,235 MW
28 Oct, 02:004,570 MW5,217 MW
28 Oct, 03:005,109 MW5,236 MW
28 Oct, 04:005,399 MW5,326 MW
28 Oct, 05:005,539 MW5,503 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pace/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pace/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pace_2026,
  title = {{PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pace/}
}

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