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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLE was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.2%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,036 MW (36.3%) too high at 3 Oct 2026, 05:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLE was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.2%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,036 MW (36.3%) too high at 3 Oct 2026, 05:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CPLE came 28 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 236 MW, against average demand of 6,216 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 59% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.9%
Bias+2.2%
Hours within 5%76%
Worst miss2,036 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+115 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 2,036 MW (36.3%) too high at 3 Oct 2026, 05:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 7,652 MW, reported 5,616 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
CPLE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLE over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 21 Oct, 08:0022 Oct, 08:0023 Oct, 08:0024 Oct, 08:0025 Oct, 08:0026 Oct, 08:0027 Oct, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLE over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 08:006,302 MW6,553 MW
21 Oct, 09:005,990 MW6,205 MW
21 Oct, 10:005,704 MW5,883 MW
21 Oct, 11:005,587 MW5,714 MW
21 Oct, 12:005,507 MW5,630 MW
21 Oct, 13:005,543 MW5,642 MW
21 Oct, 14:005,549 MW5,686 MW
21 Oct, 15:005,671 MW5,814 MW
21 Oct, 16:005,854 MW6,011 MW
21 Oct, 17:006,149 MW6,277 MW
21 Oct, 18:006,369 MW6,505 MW
21 Oct, 19:006,527 MW6,660 MW
21 Oct, 20:006,332 MW6,570 MW
21 Oct, 21:006,047 MW6,322 MW
21 Oct, 22:005,676 MW5,989 MW
21 Oct, 23:005,234 MW5,654 MW
22 Oct, 00:005,090 MW5,624 MW
22 Oct, 01:004,990 MW5,520 MW
22 Oct, 02:004,962 MW5,474 MW
22 Oct, 03:005,098 MW5,549 MW
22 Oct, 04:005,267 MW5,758 MW
22 Oct, 05:005,786 MW6,288 MW
22 Oct, 06:006,527 MW6,926 MW
22 Oct, 07:006,928 MW7,222 MW
22 Oct, 08:006,752 MW6,949 MW
22 Oct, 09:006,264 MW6,463 MW
22 Oct, 10:005,934 MW6,018 MW
22 Oct, 11:005,673 MW5,775 MW
22 Oct, 12:005,556 MW5,658 MW
22 Oct, 13:005,542 MW5,667 MW
22 Oct, 14:005,495 MW5,704 MW
22 Oct, 15:005,648 MW5,820 MW
22 Oct, 16:005,795 MW6,007 MW
22 Oct, 17:006,062 MW6,255 MW
22 Oct, 18:006,285 MW6,462 MW
22 Oct, 19:006,471 MW6,599 MW
22 Oct, 20:006,335 MW6,510 MW
22 Oct, 21:006,056 MW6,281 MW
22 Oct, 22:005,707 MW5,961 MW
22 Oct, 23:005,400 MW5,636 MW
23 Oct, 00:005,198 MW5,664 MW
23 Oct, 01:005,127 MW5,562 MW
23 Oct, 02:005,137 MW5,510 MW
23 Oct, 03:005,188 MW5,587 MW
23 Oct, 04:005,408 MW5,786 MW
23 Oct, 05:005,863 MW6,294 MW
23 Oct, 06:006,537 MW6,918 MW
23 Oct, 07:006,873 MW7,225 MW
23 Oct, 08:006,748 MW6,985 MW
23 Oct, 09:006,326 MW6,519 MW
23 Oct, 10:005,966 MW6,065 MW
23 Oct, 11:005,719 MW5,785 MW
23 Oct, 12:005,582 MW5,614 MW
23 Oct, 13:005,518 MW5,559 MW
23 Oct, 14:005,446 MW5,569 MW
23 Oct, 15:005,569 MW5,683 MW
23 Oct, 16:005,688 MW5,855 MW
23 Oct, 17:005,910 MW6,052 MW
23 Oct, 18:006,084 MW6,202 MW
23 Oct, 19:006,179 MW6,282 MW
23 Oct, 20:006,050 MW6,164 MW
23 Oct, 21:005,852 MW5,928 MW
23 Oct, 22:005,586 MW5,646 MW
23 Oct, 23:005,237 MW5,401 MW
24 Oct, 00:005,015 MW5,323 MW
24 Oct, 01:004,847 MW5,164 MW
24 Oct, 02:004,735 MW5,050 MW
24 Oct, 03:004,702 MW5,035 MW
24 Oct, 04:004,767 MW5,069 MW
24 Oct, 05:004,902 MW5,226 MW
24 Oct, 06:005,176 MW5,469 MW
24 Oct, 07:005,452 MW5,745 MW
24 Oct, 08:005,579 MW5,875 MW
24 Oct, 09:005,556 MW5,785 MW
24 Oct, 10:005,431 MW5,578 MW
24 Oct, 11:005,345 MW5,389 MW
24 Oct, 12:005,287 MW5,270 MW
24 Oct, 13:005,288 MW5,205 MW
24 Oct, 14:005,292 MW5,207 MW
24 Oct, 15:005,380 MW5,298 MW
24 Oct, 16:005,513 MW5,455 MW
24 Oct, 17:005,670 MW5,702 MW
24 Oct, 18:005,806 MW5,927 MW
24 Oct, 19:005,918 MW6,056 MW
24 Oct, 20:005,816 MW5,991 MW
24 Oct, 21:005,623 MW5,781 MW
24 Oct, 22:005,363 MW5,552 MW
24 Oct, 23:005,066 MW5,268 MW
25 Oct, 00:004,827 MW5,207 MW
25 Oct, 01:004,662 MW5,037 MW
25 Oct, 02:004,556 MW4,924 MW
25 Oct, 03:004,523 MW4,878 MW
25 Oct, 04:004,561 MW4,890 MW
25 Oct, 05:004,692 MW4,994 MW
25 Oct, 06:004,864 MW5,190 MW
25 Oct, 07:005,147 MW5,437 MW
25 Oct, 08:005,348 MW5,586 MW
25 Oct, 09:005,342 MW5,523 MW
25 Oct, 10:005,251 MW5,340 MW
25 Oct, 11:005,236 MW5,220 MW
25 Oct, 12:005,316 MW5,205 MW
25 Oct, 13:005,406 MW5,240 MW
25 Oct, 14:005,516 MW5,301 MW
25 Oct, 15:005,609 MW5,415 MW
25 Oct, 16:005,716 MW5,600 MW
25 Oct, 17:005,888 MW5,842 MW
25 Oct, 18:006,154 MW6,063 MW
25 Oct, 19:006,347 MW6,185 MW
25 Oct, 20:006,189 MW6,110 MW
25 Oct, 21:005,841 MW5,878 MW
25 Oct, 22:005,452 MW5,599 MW
25 Oct, 23:005,060 MW5,232 MW
26 Oct, 00:004,807 MW5,252 MW
26 Oct, 01:004,671 MW5,133 MW
26 Oct, 02:004,621 MW5,085 MW
26 Oct, 03:004,661 MW5,165 MW
26 Oct, 04:004,874 MW5,375 MW
26 Oct, 05:005,332 MW5,897 MW
26 Oct, 06:006,022 MW6,536 MW
26 Oct, 07:006,430 MW6,883 MW
26 Oct, 08:006,382 MW6,717 MW
26 Oct, 09:006,080 MW6,340 MW
26 Oct, 10:005,845 MW5,996 MW
26 Oct, 11:005,730 MW5,805 MW
26 Oct, 12:005,653 MW5,711 MW
26 Oct, 13:005,729 MW5,718 MW
26 Oct, 14:005,795 MW5,741 MW
26 Oct, 15:005,864 MW5,865 MW
26 Oct, 16:005,992 MW6,041 MW
26 Oct, 17:006,400 MW6,326 MW
26 Oct, 18:006,549 MW6,530 MW
26 Oct, 19:006,606 MW6,658 MW
26 Oct, 20:006,481 MW6,529 MW
26 Oct, 21:006,023 MW6,276 MW
26 Oct, 22:005,690 MW5,931 MW
26 Oct, 23:005,397 MW5,591 MW
27 Oct, 00:005,167 MW5,526 MW
27 Oct, 01:005,076 MW5,413 MW
27 Oct, 02:005,075 MW5,353 MW
27 Oct, 03:005,155 MW5,420 MW
27 Oct, 04:005,379 MW5,619 MW
27 Oct, 05:005,937 MW6,130 MW
27 Oct, 06:006,893 MW6,762 MW
27 Oct, 07:006,909 MW7,069 MW
27 Oct, 08:006,604 MW6,842 MW
27 Oct, 09:006,401 MW6,394 MW
27 Oct, 10:006,059 MW5,994 MW
27 Oct, 11:005,886 MW5,806 MW
27 Oct, 12:005,816 MW5,748 MW
27 Oct, 13:005,816 MW5,797 MW
27 Oct, 14:005,852 MW5,851 MW
27 Oct, 15:005,942 MW5,988 MW
27 Oct, 16:006,109 MW6,170 MW
27 Oct, 17:006,368 MW6,390 MW
27 Oct, 18:006,527 MW6,542 MW
27 Oct, 19:006,619 MW6,610 MW
27 Oct, 20:006,427 MW6,434 MW
27 Oct, 21:006,117 MW6,115 MW
27 Oct, 22:005,707 MW5,706 MW
27 Oct, 23:005,303 MW5,366 MW
28 Oct, 00:005,095 MW5,315 MW
28 Oct, 01:004,955 MW5,174 MW
28 Oct, 02:004,893 MW5,054 MW
28 Oct, 03:004,886 MW5,029 MW
28 Oct, 04:005,016 MW5,136 MW
28 Oct, 05:005,379 MW5,526 MW
28 Oct, 06:006,008 MW6,063 MW
28 Oct, 07:006,311 MW6,322 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cple/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cple/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_cple_2026,
  title = {{CPLE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cple/}
}

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