Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Montenegro was off by 6.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 670 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 63% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 202 MW (38.9%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Podgorica).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Montenegro was off by 6.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 670 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 63% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 202 MW (38.9%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Montenegro came 37 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 20 MW, against average demand of 320 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 71% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

670 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026

Average error6.2%

Bias+2.6%

Hours within 5%63%

Worst miss202 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+6 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 202 MW (38.9%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 06:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 316 MW, reported 518 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Montenegro over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 13:00	401 MW	373 MW
21 Oct, 14:00	394 MW	367 MW
21 Oct, 15:00	396 MW	367 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	401 MW	371 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	420 MW	387 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	438 MW	412 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	437 MW	419 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	426 MW	410 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	408 MW	396 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	382 MW	373 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	346 MW	344 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	300 MW	297 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	261 MW	260 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	237 MW	239 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	228 MW	232 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	227 MW	229 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	242 MW	242 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	291 MW	290 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	339 MW	343 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	358 MW	373 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	304 MW	384 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	341 MW	379 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	320 MW	373 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	298 MW	364 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	284 MW	359 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	287 MW	355 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	333 MW	357 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	269 MW	364 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	366 MW	384 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	404 MW	410 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	412 MW	419 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	411 MW	413 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	397 MW	397 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	371 MW	368 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	340 MW	333 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	289 MW	303 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	253 MW	265 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	229 MW	244 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	223 MW	236 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	224 MW	235 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	238 MW	250 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	284 MW	298 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	335 MW	347 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	350 MW	365 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	338 MW	361 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	311 MW	357 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	293 MW	349 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	287 MW	340 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	279 MW	337 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	279 MW	336 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	300 MW	341 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	326 MW	356 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	360 MW	387 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	407 MW	420 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	417 MW	426 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	412 MW	415 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	399 MW	396 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	369 MW	369 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	336 MW	339 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	345 MW	298 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	276 MW	260 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	275 MW	240 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	296 MW	231 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	324 MW	229 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	302 MW	241 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	357 MW	268 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	387 MW	313 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	464 MW	352 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	498 MW	370 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	499 MW	372 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	491 MW	366 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	478 MW	359 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	453 MW	356 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	433 MW	352 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	446 MW	357 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	467 MW	362 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	438 MW	380 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	464 MW	413 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	452 MW	421 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	466 MW	413 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	450 MW	398 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	421 MW	372 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	413 MW	344 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	313 MW	299 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	319 MW	267 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	289 MW	236 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	274 MW	234 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	281 MW	233 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	296 MW	224 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	310 MW	229 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	350 MW	252 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	378 MW	296 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	449 MW	342 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	382 MW	365 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	n/a	367 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	n/a	363 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	n/a	354 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	n/a	350 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	n/a	353 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	n/a	359 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	n/a	376 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	n/a	400 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	n/a	417 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	n/a	416 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	n/a	413 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	n/a	398 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	n/a	371 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	n/a	339 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	279 MW	279 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	244 MW	252 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	226 MW	234 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	221 MW	229 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	223 MW	229 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	238 MW	245 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	291 MW	295 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	347 MW	348 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	362 MW	361 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	355 MW	358 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	327 MW	347 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	305 MW	341 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	300 MW	335 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	307 MW	336 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	323 MW	342 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	350 MW	357 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	391 MW	375 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	437 MW	408 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	443 MW	426 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	443 MW	431 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	435 MW	420 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	414 MW	404 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	384 MW	379 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	343 MW	346 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	299 MW	300 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	265 MW	267 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	244 MW	249 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	234 MW	243 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	236 MW	242 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	254 MW	261 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	302 MW	307 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	348 MW	365 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	351 MW	381 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	335 MW	373 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	321 MW	362 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	313 MW	354 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	311 MW	343 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	321 MW	343 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	336 MW	344 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	363 MW	363 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	401 MW	391 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	443 MW	425 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	450 MW	439 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	448 MW	435 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	444 MW	430 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	422 MW	417 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	388 MW	389 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	351 MW	353 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	419 MW	308 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	365 MW	274 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	362 MW	256 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	365 MW	248 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	399 MW	249 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	460 MW	270 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	518 MW	316 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	526 MW	359 MW
28 Oct, 08:00	389 MW	374 MW
28 Oct, 09:00	343 MW	365 MW
28 Oct, 10:00	328 MW	363 MW
28 Oct, 11:00	312 MW	353 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (670 of 684 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_me_2026,
  title = {{Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/

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Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related