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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for LGEE was off by 7.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 25% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -7.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 736 MW (18.0%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for LGEE was off by 7.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 25% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -7.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 736 MW (18.0%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, LGEE came 38 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 278 MW, against average demand of 3,803 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 3% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error7.4%
Bias-7.3%
Hours within 5%25%
Worst miss736 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-273 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 736 MW (18.0%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 3,362 MW, reported 4,098 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
LGEE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LGEE over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 21 Oct, 08:0022 Oct, 08:0023 Oct, 08:0024 Oct, 08:0025 Oct, 08:0026 Oct, 08:0027 Oct, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LGEE over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 08:003,856 MW3,616 MW
21 Oct, 09:003,823 MW3,616 MW
21 Oct, 10:003,795 MW3,610 MW
21 Oct, 11:003,749 MW3,595 MW
21 Oct, 12:003,763 MW3,592 MW
21 Oct, 13:003,815 MW3,608 MW
21 Oct, 14:003,942 MW3,614 MW
21 Oct, 15:003,925 MW3,638 MW
21 Oct, 16:003,979 MW3,638 MW
21 Oct, 17:004,018 MW3,649 MW
21 Oct, 18:003,914 MW3,630 MW
21 Oct, 19:004,001 MW3,639 MW
21 Oct, 20:003,970 MW3,609 MW
21 Oct, 21:003,809 MW3,486 MW
21 Oct, 22:003,693 MW3,321 MW
21 Oct, 23:003,503 MW3,151 MW
22 Oct, 00:003,441 MW3,019 MW
22 Oct, 01:003,330 MW2,921 MW
22 Oct, 02:003,301 MW2,876 MW
22 Oct, 03:003,239 MW2,848 MW
22 Oct, 04:003,303 MW2,878 MW
22 Oct, 05:003,406 MW3,013 MW
22 Oct, 06:003,747 MW3,302 MW
22 Oct, 07:003,878 MW3,519 MW
22 Oct, 08:003,876 MW3,606 MW
22 Oct, 09:003,958 MW3,613 MW
22 Oct, 10:003,999 MW3,620 MW
22 Oct, 11:003,972 MW3,603 MW
22 Oct, 12:004,035 MW3,600 MW
22 Oct, 13:004,040 MW3,619 MW
22 Oct, 14:004,070 MW3,623 MW
22 Oct, 15:004,058 MW3,639 MW
22 Oct, 16:004,037 MW3,633 MW
22 Oct, 17:004,008 MW3,629 MW
22 Oct, 18:003,986 MW3,601 MW
22 Oct, 19:003,862 MW3,608 MW
22 Oct, 20:003,808 MW3,591 MW
22 Oct, 21:003,714 MW3,476 MW
22 Oct, 22:003,515 MW3,316 MW
22 Oct, 23:003,314 MW3,149 MW
23 Oct, 00:003,123 MW3,016 MW
23 Oct, 01:003,106 MW2,924 MW
23 Oct, 02:003,072 MW2,878 MW
23 Oct, 03:003,136 MW2,841 MW
23 Oct, 04:003,170 MW2,868 MW
23 Oct, 05:003,329 MW2,994 MW
23 Oct, 06:003,717 MW3,269 MW
23 Oct, 07:003,939 MW3,473 MW
23 Oct, 08:003,975 MW3,570 MW
23 Oct, 09:003,998 MW3,576 MW
23 Oct, 10:003,939 MW3,571 MW
23 Oct, 11:003,985 MW3,553 MW
23 Oct, 12:003,960 MW3,553 MW
23 Oct, 13:003,957 MW3,561 MW
23 Oct, 14:003,939 MW3,562 MW
23 Oct, 15:003,931 MW3,567 MW
23 Oct, 16:003,839 MW3,557 MW
23 Oct, 17:003,862 MW3,563 MW
23 Oct, 18:003,911 MW3,519 MW
23 Oct, 19:003,927 MW3,519 MW
23 Oct, 20:003,928 MW3,478 MW
23 Oct, 21:003,773 MW3,360 MW
23 Oct, 22:003,620 MW3,230 MW
23 Oct, 23:003,499 MW3,088 MW
24 Oct, 00:003,254 MW2,961 MW
24 Oct, 01:003,074 MW2,826 MW
24 Oct, 02:003,004 MW2,770 MW
24 Oct, 03:003,169 MW2,726 MW
24 Oct, 04:003,125 MW2,725 MW
24 Oct, 05:003,264 MW2,760 MW
24 Oct, 06:003,390 MW2,861 MW
24 Oct, 07:003,448 MW2,987 MW
24 Oct, 08:003,623 MW3,096 MW
24 Oct, 09:003,620 MW3,167 MW
24 Oct, 10:003,562 MW3,193 MW
24 Oct, 11:003,630 MW3,187 MW
24 Oct, 12:003,657 MW3,182 MW
24 Oct, 13:003,581 MW3,179 MW
24 Oct, 14:003,588 MW3,196 MW
24 Oct, 15:003,614 MW3,228 MW
24 Oct, 16:003,628 MW3,262 MW
24 Oct, 17:003,673 MW3,287 MW
24 Oct, 18:003,655 MW3,246 MW
24 Oct, 19:003,722 MW3,276 MW
24 Oct, 20:003,608 MW3,231 MW
24 Oct, 21:003,514 MW3,122 MW
24 Oct, 22:003,356 MW3,005 MW
24 Oct, 23:003,277 MW2,870 MW
25 Oct, 00:003,093 MW2,743 MW
25 Oct, 01:003,030 MW2,668 MW
25 Oct, 02:002,989 MW2,619 MW
25 Oct, 03:002,813 MW2,583 MW
25 Oct, 04:002,895 MW2,587 MW
25 Oct, 05:002,939 MW2,628 MW
25 Oct, 06:002,980 MW2,713 MW
25 Oct, 07:003,080 MW2,822 MW
25 Oct, 08:003,302 MW2,941 MW
25 Oct, 09:003,448 MW3,036 MW
25 Oct, 10:003,522 MW3,081 MW
25 Oct, 11:003,457 MW3,079 MW
25 Oct, 12:003,491 MW3,123 MW
25 Oct, 13:003,558 MW3,166 MW
25 Oct, 14:003,658 MW3,224 MW
25 Oct, 15:003,664 MW3,287 MW
25 Oct, 16:003,746 MW3,338 MW
25 Oct, 17:003,677 MW3,377 MW
25 Oct, 18:003,595 MW3,349 MW
25 Oct, 19:003,711 MW3,375 MW
25 Oct, 20:003,725 MW3,332 MW
25 Oct, 21:003,633 MW3,198 MW
25 Oct, 22:003,449 MW3,052 MW
25 Oct, 23:003,281 MW2,891 MW
26 Oct, 00:003,122 MW2,765 MW
26 Oct, 01:003,074 MW2,760 MW
26 Oct, 02:003,002 MW2,727 MW
26 Oct, 03:003,052 MW2,715 MW
26 Oct, 04:003,143 MW2,769 MW
26 Oct, 05:003,332 MW2,915 MW
26 Oct, 06:003,620 MW3,204 MW
26 Oct, 07:003,791 MW3,436 MW
26 Oct, 08:003,919 MW3,545 MW
26 Oct, 09:004,001 MW3,587 MW
26 Oct, 10:003,990 MW3,599 MW
26 Oct, 11:004,024 MW3,618 MW
26 Oct, 12:004,038 MW3,652 MW
26 Oct, 13:004,081 MW3,710 MW
26 Oct, 14:004,097 MW3,751 MW
26 Oct, 15:004,160 MW3,791 MW
26 Oct, 16:004,151 MW3,806 MW
26 Oct, 17:004,152 MW3,822 MW
26 Oct, 18:004,074 MW3,781 MW
26 Oct, 19:004,061 MW3,785 MW
26 Oct, 20:003,991 MW3,708 MW
26 Oct, 21:003,839 MW3,559 MW
26 Oct, 22:003,624 MW3,372 MW
26 Oct, 23:003,419 MW3,188 MW
27 Oct, 00:003,137 MW3,027 MW
27 Oct, 01:003,080 MW2,923 MW
27 Oct, 02:003,098 MW2,868 MW
27 Oct, 03:002,973 MW2,842 MW
27 Oct, 04:003,016 MW2,860 MW
27 Oct, 05:003,270 MW2,993 MW
27 Oct, 06:003,592 MW3,269 MW
27 Oct, 07:003,691 MW3,489 MW
27 Oct, 08:003,754 MW3,569 MW
27 Oct, 09:003,773 MW3,602 MW
27 Oct, 10:003,829 MW3,623 MW
27 Oct, 11:003,818 MW3,646 MW
27 Oct, 12:003,909 MW3,681 MW
27 Oct, 13:003,895 MW3,719 MW
27 Oct, 14:004,015 MW3,750 MW
27 Oct, 15:004,043 MW3,788 MW
27 Oct, 16:004,063 MW3,791 MW
27 Oct, 17:004,081 MW3,790 MW
27 Oct, 18:004,065 MW3,750 MW
27 Oct, 19:004,091 MW3,757 MW
27 Oct, 20:004,008 MW3,690 MW
27 Oct, 21:003,852 MW3,543 MW
27 Oct, 22:003,627 MW3,360 MW
27 Oct, 23:003,458 MW3,178 MW
28 Oct, 00:003,329 MW3,025 MW
28 Oct, 01:003,222 MW2,893 MW
28 Oct, 02:003,046 MW2,821 MW
28 Oct, 03:003,122 MW2,784 MW
28 Oct, 04:003,199 MW2,790 MW
28 Oct, 05:003,354 MW2,906 MW
28 Oct, 06:003,690 MW3,165 MW
28 Oct, 07:004,098 MW3,362 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lgee/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lgee/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_lgee_2026,
  title = {{LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lgee/}
}

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