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Data as of 2026-10-25
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 25 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for LDWP was off by 9.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 667 hours from 28 September to 25 October 2026, and 28% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -8.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,190 MW (23.4%) too low at 2 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for LDWP was off by 9.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 667 hours from 28 September to 25 October 2026, and 28% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -8.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,190 MW (23.4%) too low at 2 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, LDWP came 42 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 303 MW, against average demand of 3,345 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 3% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

667 hours from 28 September to 25 October 2026
Average error9.1%
Bias-8.9%
Hours within 5%28%
Worst miss1,190 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-298 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,190 MW (23.4%) too low at 2 Oct 2026, 13:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 3,897 MW, reported 5,087 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-25. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 25 Oct 2026, 23:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
LDWP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LDWP over the last 7 days of the window, to 25 Oct 2026, 23:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 19 Oct, 00:0020 Oct, 00:0021 Oct, 00:0022 Oct, 00:0023 Oct, 00:0024 Oct, 00:0025 Oct, 00:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LDWP over the last 7 days of the window, to 25 Oct 2026, 23:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-25
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
19 Oct, 00:002,709 MW2,478 MW
19 Oct, 01:002,521 MW2,329 MW
19 Oct, 02:002,409 MW2,237 MW
19 Oct, 03:002,377 MW2,182 MW
19 Oct, 04:002,327 MW2,178 MW
19 Oct, 05:002,450 MW2,252 MW
19 Oct, 06:002,735 MW2,421 MW
19 Oct, 07:002,833 MW2,539 MW
19 Oct, 08:002,890 MW2,687 MW
19 Oct, 09:002,894 MW2,784 MW
19 Oct, 10:002,992 MW2,842 MW
19 Oct, 11:003,104 MW2,932 MW
19 Oct, 12:003,260 MW3,049 MW
19 Oct, 13:003,482 MW3,219 MW
19 Oct, 14:003,739 MW3,386 MW
19 Oct, 15:003,922 MW3,517 MW
19 Oct, 16:003,999 MW3,570 MW
19 Oct, 17:003,951 MW3,516 MW
19 Oct, 18:003,805 MW3,408 MW
19 Oct, 19:003,696 MW3,298 MW
19 Oct, 20:003,543 MW3,155 MW
19 Oct, 21:003,392 MW3,004 MW
19 Oct, 22:003,183 MW2,808 MW
19 Oct, 23:002,865 MW2,605 MW
20 Oct, 00:002,602 MW2,425 MW
20 Oct, 01:002,444 MW2,294 MW
20 Oct, 02:002,368 MW2,194 MW
20 Oct, 03:002,326 MW2,125 MW
20 Oct, 04:002,342 MW2,115 MW
20 Oct, 05:002,454 MW2,190 MW
20 Oct, 06:002,752 MW2,367 MW
20 Oct, 07:002,704 MW2,485 MW
20 Oct, 08:002,782 MW2,618 MW
20 Oct, 09:002,944 MW2,714 MW
20 Oct, 10:003,023 MW2,743 MW
20 Oct, 11:003,175 MW2,800 MW
20 Oct, 12:003,282 MW2,872 MW
20 Oct, 13:003,376 MW2,990 MW
20 Oct, 14:003,540 MW3,157 MW
20 Oct, 15:003,719 MW3,294 MW
20 Oct, 16:003,726 MW3,356 MW
20 Oct, 17:003,689 MW3,309 MW
20 Oct, 18:003,536 MW3,236 MW
20 Oct, 19:003,502 MW3,157 MW
20 Oct, 20:003,409 MW3,028 MW
20 Oct, 21:003,277 MW2,902 MW
20 Oct, 22:003,042 MW2,727 MW
20 Oct, 23:002,849 MW2,546 MW
21 Oct, 00:002,667 MW2,366 MW
21 Oct, 01:002,504 MW2,234 MW
21 Oct, 02:002,390 MW2,131 MW
21 Oct, 03:002,309 MW2,067 MW
21 Oct, 04:002,312 MW2,058 MW
21 Oct, 05:002,420 MW2,139 MW
21 Oct, 06:002,664 MW2,321 MW
21 Oct, 07:002,769 MW2,436 MW
21 Oct, 08:002,892 MW2,543 MW
21 Oct, 09:003,010 MW2,628 MW
21 Oct, 10:003,032 MW2,654 MW
21 Oct, 11:003,118 MW2,672 MW
21 Oct, 12:003,160 MW2,708 MW
21 Oct, 13:003,170 MW2,781 MW
21 Oct, 14:003,114 MW2,880 MW
21 Oct, 15:003,101 MW2,991 MW
21 Oct, 16:003,119 MW3,096 MW
21 Oct, 17:003,089 MW3,121 MW
21 Oct, 18:003,131 MW3,067 MW
21 Oct, 19:003,104 MW2,991 MW
21 Oct, 20:003,097 MW2,891 MW
21 Oct, 21:003,049 MW2,772 MW
21 Oct, 22:002,861 MW2,612 MW
21 Oct, 23:002,697 MW2,449 MW
22 Oct, 00:002,513 MW2,265 MW
22 Oct, 01:002,365 MW2,153 MW
22 Oct, 02:002,240 MW2,072 MW
22 Oct, 03:002,185 MW2,019 MW
22 Oct, 04:002,181 MW2,025 MW
22 Oct, 05:002,286 MW2,116 MW
22 Oct, 06:002,558 MW2,306 MW
22 Oct, 07:002,657 MW2,430 MW
22 Oct, 08:002,762 MW2,511 MW
22 Oct, 09:003,104 MW2,564 MW
22 Oct, 10:003,103 MW2,583 MW
22 Oct, 11:003,105 MW2,595 MW
22 Oct, 12:003,139 MW2,464 MW
22 Oct, 13:003,123 MW2,496 MW
22 Oct, 14:003,193 MW2,547 MW
22 Oct, 15:003,303 MW2,605 MW
22 Oct, 16:003,117 MW2,666 MW
22 Oct, 17:003,145 MW2,688 MW
22 Oct, 18:003,187 MW2,710 MW
22 Oct, 19:003,153 MW2,737 MW
22 Oct, 20:003,090 MW2,662 MW
22 Oct, 21:003,007 MW2,582 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,830 MW2,452 MW
22 Oct, 23:002,669 MW2,319 MW
23 Oct, 00:002,531 MW2,197 MW
23 Oct, 01:002,303 MW2,098 MW
23 Oct, 02:002,171 MW2,022 MW
23 Oct, 03:002,082 MW1,974 MW
23 Oct, 04:002,080 MW1,988 MW
23 Oct, 05:002,147 MW2,075 MW
23 Oct, 06:002,351 MW2,264 MW
23 Oct, 07:002,452 MW2,395 MW
23 Oct, 08:002,782 MW2,484 MW
23 Oct, 09:002,956 MW2,519 MW
23 Oct, 10:002,980 MW2,476 MW
23 Oct, 11:003,032 MW2,429 MW
23 Oct, 12:003,008 MW2,421 MW
23 Oct, 13:003,022 MW2,464 MW
23 Oct, 14:003,145 MW2,524 MW
23 Oct, 15:003,112 MW2,591 MW
23 Oct, 16:003,057 MW2,658 MW
23 Oct, 17:003,066 MW2,688 MW
23 Oct, 18:003,112 MW2,705 MW
23 Oct, 19:003,166 MW2,702 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,964 MW2,633 MW
23 Oct, 21:002,839 MW2,553 MW
23 Oct, 22:002,710 MW2,442 MW
23 Oct, 23:002,599 MW2,323 MW
24 Oct, 00:002,442 MW2,219 MW
24 Oct, 01:002,475 MW2,116 MW
24 Oct, 02:002,318 MW2,031 MW
24 Oct, 03:002,263 MW1,971 MW
24 Oct, 04:002,167 MW1,952 MW
24 Oct, 05:002,188 MW1,967 MW
24 Oct, 06:002,277 MW2,044 MW
24 Oct, 07:002,355 MW2,088 MW
24 Oct, 08:002,452 MW2,141 MW
24 Oct, 09:002,692 MW2,190 MW
24 Oct, 10:002,710 MW2,168 MW
24 Oct, 11:002,753 MW2,132 MW
24 Oct, 12:002,797 MW2,168 MW
24 Oct, 13:002,828 MW2,190 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,979 MW2,297 MW
24 Oct, 15:003,150 MW2,409 MW
24 Oct, 16:003,275 MW2,505 MW
24 Oct, 17:003,066 MW2,550 MW
24 Oct, 18:003,067 MW2,616 MW
24 Oct, 19:003,007 MW2,624 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,843 MW2,543 MW
24 Oct, 21:002,706 MW2,475 MW
24 Oct, 22:002,556 MW2,396 MW
24 Oct, 23:002,398 MW2,287 MW
25 Oct, 00:002,342 MW2,225 MW
25 Oct, 01:002,266 MW2,119 MW
25 Oct, 02:002,145 MW2,039 MW
25 Oct, 03:002,055 MW1,984 MW
25 Oct, 04:002,031 MW1,953 MW
25 Oct, 05:002,016 MW1,954 MW
25 Oct, 06:002,095 MW1,995 MW
25 Oct, 07:002,139 MW2,005 MW
25 Oct, 08:002,177 MW2,033 MW
25 Oct, 09:002,416 MW2,071 MW
25 Oct, 10:002,447 MW2,071 MW
25 Oct, 11:002,490 MW2,083 MW
25 Oct, 12:002,580 MW2,135 MW
25 Oct, 13:002,720 MW2,227 MW
25 Oct, 14:002,859 MW2,345 MW
25 Oct, 15:003,046 MW2,475 MW
25 Oct, 16:002,967 MW2,578 MW
25 Oct, 17:003,007 MW2,613 MW
25 Oct, 18:003,046 MW2,663 MW
25 Oct, 19:003,017 MW2,682 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,954 MW2,579 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,895 MW2,508 MW
25 Oct, 22:002,732 MW2,399 MW
25 Oct, 23:002,513 MW2,260 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (667 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ldwp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-25. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ldwp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ldwp_2026,
  title = {{LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-25. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ldwp/}
}

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