Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sardinia was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 213 MW (39.7%) too high at 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sardinia was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 213 MW (39.7%) too high at 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Sardinia came 32 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 30 MW, against average demand of 783 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 62% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026

Average error4.0%

Bias+1.8%

Hours within 5%74%

Worst miss213 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+11 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 213 MW (39.7%) too high at 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 750 MW, reported 537 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Sardinia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:00	656 MW	688 MW
21 Oct, 15:00	656 MW	715 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	743 MW	750 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	833 MW	830 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	916 MW	910 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	991 MW	975 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	974 MW	968 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	901 MW	903 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	833 MW	845 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	771 MW	770 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	708 MW	720 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	673 MW	688 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	658 MW	673 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	657 MW	668 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	659 MW	670 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	690 MW	698 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	775 MW	788 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	883 MW	895 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	906 MW	928 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	817 MW	915 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	738 MW	863 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	690 MW	815 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	704 MW	768 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	698 MW	745 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	681 MW	750 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	690 MW	818 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	728 MW	835 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	813 MW	838 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	917 MW	928 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	995 MW	985 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	970 MW	968 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	902 MW	888 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	829 MW	825 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	762 MW	765 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	707 MW	723 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	676 MW	698 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	666 MW	683 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	670 MW	680 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	665 MW	683 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	682 MW	705 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	769 MW	790 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	876 MW	880 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	884 MW	915 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	808 MW	893 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	719 MW	828 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	696 MW	790 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	709 MW	745 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	747 MW	738 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	746 MW	743 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	760 MW	818 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	783 MW	850 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	837 MW	848 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	914 MW	920 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	980 MW	980 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	945 MW	958 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	877 MW	880 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	801 MW	825 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	748 MW	773 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	701 MW	720 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	670 MW	688 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	645 MW	665 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	637 MW	650 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	641 MW	650 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	659 MW	685 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	711 MW	735 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	784 MW	788 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	798 MW	825 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	748 MW	803 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	702 MW	765 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	703 MW	700 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	726 MW	670 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	717 MW	668 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	702 MW	645 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	681 MW	658 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	740 MW	703 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	807 MW	790 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	889 MW	865 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	948 MW	933 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	921 MW	913 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	847 MW	843 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	793 MW	785 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	740 MW	743 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	705 MW	695 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	672 MW	663 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	691 MW	755 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	537 MW	750 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	622 MW	643 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	637 MW	635 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	656 MW	645 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	690 MW	690 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	709 MW	730 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	736 MW	743 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	743 MW	715 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	746 MW	653 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	753 MW	628 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	728 MW	658 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	692 MW	673 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	647 MW	668 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	659 MW	695 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	750 MW	715 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	854 MW	755 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	924 MW	830 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	938 MW	888 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	911 MW	880 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	867 MW	825 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	800 MW	748 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	734 MW	695 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	688 MW	660 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	664 MW	645 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	651 MW	638 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	649 MW	635 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	656 MW	658 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	688 MW	735 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	779 MW	843 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	847 MW	895 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	810 MW	855 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	755 MW	793 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	720 MW	750 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	677 MW	715 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	667 MW	678 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	661 MW	670 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	673 MW	695 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	719 MW	755 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	806 MW	840 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	910 MW	915 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	983 MW	968 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	1,003 MW	953 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	975 MW	895 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	903 MW	830 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	824 MW	768 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	756 MW	710 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	722 MW	688 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	703 MW	663 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	682 MW	655 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	681 MW	650 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	700 MW	670 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	727 MW	748 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	811 MW	873 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	875 MW	908 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	831 MW	868 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	746 MW	790 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	717 MW	733 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	703 MW	693 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	693 MW	685 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	683 MW	705 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	729 MW	743 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	762 MW	810 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	834 MW	865 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	921 MW	925 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	983 MW	985 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	1,002 MW	970 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	978 MW	908 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	909 MW	845 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	836 MW	778 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	772 MW	723 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	717 MW	698 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	684 MW	673 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	671 MW	668 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	670 MW	668 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	675 MW	680 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	714 MW	708 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	793 MW	795 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	867 MW	863 MW
28 Oct, 08:00	861 MW	845 MW
28 Oct, 09:00	822 MW	780 MW
28 Oct, 10:00	813 MW	758 MW
28 Oct, 11:00	812 MW	763 MW
28 Oct, 12:00	845 MW	763 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_sard_2026,
  title = {{Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/

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Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related