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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-South was off by 4.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 62% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,088 MW (18.7%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-South was off by 4.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 62% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,088 MW (18.7%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Centre-South came 34 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 239 MW, against average demand of 5,081 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 56% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error4.9%
Bias+0.8%
Hours within 5%62%
Worst miss1,088 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+28 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,088 MW (18.7%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 4,725 MW, reported 5,813 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy Centre-South day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-South over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-South over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:006,083 MW6,016 MW
21 Oct, 15:006,134 MW5,983 MW
21 Oct, 16:005,968 MW6,167 MW
21 Oct, 17:005,659 MW6,149 MW
21 Oct, 18:005,864 MW6,236 MW
21 Oct, 19:006,311 MW6,437 MW
21 Oct, 20:006,053 MW6,138 MW
21 Oct, 21:005,506 MW5,653 MW
21 Oct, 22:004,921 MW5,124 MW
21 Oct, 23:004,492 MW4,683 MW
22 Oct, 00:004,111 MW4,208 MW
22 Oct, 01:003,897 MW4,090 MW
22 Oct, 02:003,703 MW3,840 MW
22 Oct, 03:003,584 MW3,671 MW
22 Oct, 04:003,539 MW3,739 MW
22 Oct, 05:003,768 MW3,989 MW
22 Oct, 06:004,444 MW4,610 MW
22 Oct, 07:005,214 MW5,228 MW
22 Oct, 08:005,721 MW5,736 MW
22 Oct, 09:006,123 MW6,041 MW
22 Oct, 10:005,960 MW5,944 MW
22 Oct, 11:005,851 MW5,926 MW
22 Oct, 12:005,708 MW5,784 MW
22 Oct, 13:005,451 MW5,623 MW
22 Oct, 14:005,537 MW5,647 MW
22 Oct, 15:005,485 MW5,777 MW
22 Oct, 16:005,592 MW5,799 MW
22 Oct, 17:005,465 MW5,764 MW
22 Oct, 18:005,887 MW5,984 MW
22 Oct, 19:006,231 MW6,221 MW
22 Oct, 20:005,916 MW5,936 MW
22 Oct, 21:005,511 MW5,437 MW
22 Oct, 22:005,023 MW4,909 MW
22 Oct, 23:004,572 MW4,492 MW
23 Oct, 00:003,950 MW4,152 MW
23 Oct, 01:003,705 MW3,973 MW
23 Oct, 02:003,576 MW3,594 MW
23 Oct, 03:003,531 MW3,515 MW
23 Oct, 04:003,560 MW3,638 MW
23 Oct, 05:003,770 MW3,937 MW
23 Oct, 06:004,310 MW4,607 MW
23 Oct, 07:004,942 MW5,235 MW
23 Oct, 08:005,581 MW5,818 MW
23 Oct, 09:005,963 MW6,119 MW
23 Oct, 10:006,071 MW6,032 MW
23 Oct, 11:006,079 MW5,996 MW
23 Oct, 12:005,922 MW5,635 MW
23 Oct, 13:005,590 MW5,471 MW
23 Oct, 14:005,592 MW5,500 MW
23 Oct, 15:005,671 MW5,605 MW
23 Oct, 16:005,738 MW5,623 MW
23 Oct, 17:005,623 MW5,633 MW
23 Oct, 18:005,910 MW6,017 MW
23 Oct, 19:006,207 MW6,234 MW
23 Oct, 20:005,834 MW5,951 MW
23 Oct, 21:005,326 MW5,435 MW
23 Oct, 22:004,804 MW4,901 MW
23 Oct, 23:004,418 MW4,557 MW
24 Oct, 00:004,067 MW4,292 MW
24 Oct, 01:003,773 MW4,098 MW
24 Oct, 02:003,588 MW3,868 MW
24 Oct, 03:003,488 MW3,788 MW
24 Oct, 04:003,572 MW3,699 MW
24 Oct, 05:003,783 MW3,918 MW
24 Oct, 06:004,177 MW4,221 MW
24 Oct, 07:004,630 MW4,598 MW
24 Oct, 08:004,952 MW4,955 MW
24 Oct, 09:005,409 MW5,211 MW
24 Oct, 10:005,351 MW5,307 MW
24 Oct, 11:005,106 MW5,488 MW
24 Oct, 12:005,074 MW5,257 MW
24 Oct, 13:004,885 MW5,080 MW
24 Oct, 14:005,118 MW5,009 MW
24 Oct, 15:004,864 MW5,092 MW
24 Oct, 16:004,750 MW5,091 MW
24 Oct, 17:004,910 MW5,102 MW
24 Oct, 18:005,325 MW5,378 MW
24 Oct, 19:005,457 MW5,757 MW
24 Oct, 20:005,359 MW5,570 MW
24 Oct, 21:005,015 MW5,176 MW
24 Oct, 22:004,587 MW4,746 MW
24 Oct, 23:004,184 MW4,381 MW
25 Oct, 00:003,874 MW3,884 MW
25 Oct, 01:003,785 MW3,653 MW
25 Oct, 02:003,732 MW3,555 MW
25 Oct, 02:003,479 MW3,450 MW
25 Oct, 03:003,412 MW3,450 MW
25 Oct, 04:003,433 MW3,457 MW
25 Oct, 05:003,611 MW3,508 MW
25 Oct, 06:003,753 MW3,593 MW
25 Oct, 07:004,155 MW3,812 MW
25 Oct, 08:004,568 MW4,322 MW
25 Oct, 09:004,766 MW4,750 MW
25 Oct, 10:004,622 MW4,940 MW
25 Oct, 11:004,545 MW4,977 MW
25 Oct, 12:004,685 MW5,128 MW
25 Oct, 13:004,538 MW4,849 MW
25 Oct, 14:004,369 MW4,615 MW
25 Oct, 15:004,412 MW4,713 MW
25 Oct, 16:004,429 MW4,853 MW
25 Oct, 17:004,889 MW4,809 MW
25 Oct, 18:005,202 MW5,031 MW
25 Oct, 19:005,474 MW5,397 MW
25 Oct, 20:005,272 MW5,300 MW
25 Oct, 21:004,771 MW4,989 MW
25 Oct, 22:004,408 MW4,454 MW
25 Oct, 23:004,004 MW4,146 MW
26 Oct, 00:003,888 MW3,759 MW
26 Oct, 01:003,940 MW3,561 MW
26 Oct, 02:003,814 MW3,482 MW
26 Oct, 03:003,749 MW3,507 MW
26 Oct, 04:003,718 MW3,643 MW
26 Oct, 05:004,143 MW4,012 MW
26 Oct, 06:004,844 MW5,011 MW
26 Oct, 07:005,513 MW5,562 MW
26 Oct, 08:005,919 MW5,789 MW
26 Oct, 09:006,011 MW5,605 MW
26 Oct, 10:005,766 MW5,402 MW
26 Oct, 11:005,718 MW5,353 MW
26 Oct, 12:005,580 MW5,159 MW
26 Oct, 13:005,563 MW5,306 MW
26 Oct, 14:005,687 MW5,335 MW
26 Oct, 15:005,615 MW5,506 MW
26 Oct, 16:005,590 MW5,685 MW
26 Oct, 17:005,957 MW5,889 MW
26 Oct, 18:006,226 MW6,142 MW
26 Oct, 19:006,354 MW5,966 MW
26 Oct, 20:006,059 MW5,593 MW
26 Oct, 21:005,470 MW5,049 MW
26 Oct, 22:004,848 MW4,658 MW
26 Oct, 23:004,331 MW4,256 MW
27 Oct, 00:003,744 MW4,086 MW
27 Oct, 01:003,564 MW3,795 MW
27 Oct, 02:003,512 MW3,680 MW
27 Oct, 03:003,487 MW3,746 MW
27 Oct, 04:003,576 MW3,915 MW
27 Oct, 05:003,906 MW4,304 MW
27 Oct, 06:004,515 MW5,036 MW
27 Oct, 07:005,420 MW5,636 MW
27 Oct, 08:005,762 MW5,971 MW
27 Oct, 09:005,955 MW5,680 MW
27 Oct, 10:005,742 MW5,528 MW
27 Oct, 11:005,721 MW5,395 MW
27 Oct, 12:005,731 MW5,350 MW
27 Oct, 13:005,653 MW5,512 MW
27 Oct, 14:005,790 MW5,612 MW
27 Oct, 15:005,903 MW5,664 MW
27 Oct, 16:005,963 MW5,792 MW
27 Oct, 17:006,258 MW5,993 MW
27 Oct, 18:006,464 MW6,273 MW
27 Oct, 19:006,639 MW6,012 MW
27 Oct, 20:006,322 MW5,646 MW
27 Oct, 21:005,731 MW5,232 MW
27 Oct, 22:005,096 MW4,886 MW
27 Oct, 23:004,548 MW4,393 MW
28 Oct, 00:004,261 MW4,084 MW
28 Oct, 01:004,165 MW3,899 MW
28 Oct, 02:003,994 MW3,772 MW
28 Oct, 03:003,979 MW3,700 MW
28 Oct, 04:004,013 MW3,820 MW
28 Oct, 05:004,320 MW4,142 MW
28 Oct, 06:004,978 MW4,782 MW
28 Oct, 07:005,628 MW5,517 MW
28 Oct, 08:006,081 MW5,913 MW
28 Oct, 09:006,033 MW5,985 MW
28 Oct, 10:005,928 MW5,935 MW
28 Oct, 11:005,778 MW5,768 MW
28 Oct, 12:005,764 MW5,640 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_csud_2026,
  title = {{Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/}
}

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