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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Hungary was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 77% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 715 MW (20.5%) too high at 13 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Budapest).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Hungary was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 77% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 715 MW (20.5%) too high at 13 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Hungary came 29 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 169 MW, against average demand of 4,730 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 20% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.6%
Bias-2.3%
Hours within 5%77%
Worst miss715 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-114 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 715 MW (20.5%) too high at 13 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 4,203 MW, reported 3,488 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Hungary day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Hungary over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Hungary over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:004,315 MW4,588 MW
21 Oct, 15:004,767 MW4,925 MW
21 Oct, 16:005,300 MW5,282 MW
21 Oct, 17:005,776 MW5,575 MW
21 Oct, 18:005,999 MW5,853 MW
21 Oct, 19:006,004 MW5,799 MW
21 Oct, 20:005,764 MW5,591 MW
21 Oct, 21:005,430 MW5,227 MW
21 Oct, 22:005,179 MW4,997 MW
21 Oct, 23:005,058 MW4,807 MW
22 Oct, 00:004,733 MW4,497 MW
22 Oct, 01:004,505 MW4,223 MW
22 Oct, 02:004,364 MW4,089 MW
22 Oct, 03:004,336 MW4,102 MW
22 Oct, 04:004,396 MW4,238 MW
22 Oct, 05:004,672 MW4,623 MW
22 Oct, 06:005,320 MW5,252 MW
22 Oct, 07:005,713 MW5,647 MW
22 Oct, 08:005,830 MW5,793 MW
22 Oct, 09:005,808 MW5,789 MW
22 Oct, 10:005,718 MW5,704 MW
22 Oct, 11:005,631 MW5,682 MW
22 Oct, 12:005,359 MW5,524 MW
22 Oct, 13:005,181 MW5,323 MW
22 Oct, 14:005,097 MW5,217 MW
22 Oct, 15:005,194 MW5,293 MW
22 Oct, 16:005,452 MW5,480 MW
22 Oct, 17:005,752 MW5,686 MW
22 Oct, 18:005,908 MW5,874 MW
22 Oct, 19:005,883 MW5,818 MW
22 Oct, 20:005,689 MW5,587 MW
22 Oct, 21:005,319 MW5,262 MW
22 Oct, 22:005,151 MW5,032 MW
22 Oct, 23:005,025 MW4,820 MW
23 Oct, 00:004,747 MW4,262 MW
23 Oct, 01:004,403 MW4,013 MW
23 Oct, 02:004,250 MW3,879 MW
23 Oct, 03:004,156 MW3,842 MW
23 Oct, 04:004,126 MW3,889 MW
23 Oct, 05:004,075 MW3,962 MW
23 Oct, 06:004,217 MW4,161 MW
23 Oct, 07:004,409 MW4,357 MW
23 Oct, 08:004,279 MW4,300 MW
23 Oct, 09:003,926 MW4,061 MW
23 Oct, 10:003,639 MW3,882 MW
23 Oct, 11:003,404 MW3,686 MW
23 Oct, 12:003,412 MW3,552 MW
23 Oct, 13:003,494 MW3,428 MW
23 Oct, 14:003,776 MW3,482 MW
23 Oct, 15:004,191 MW3,819 MW
23 Oct, 16:004,650 MW4,276 MW
23 Oct, 17:004,977 MW4,620 MW
23 Oct, 18:005,160 MW4,987 MW
23 Oct, 19:005,173 MW4,985 MW
23 Oct, 20:005,070 MW4,831 MW
23 Oct, 21:004,772 MW4,614 MW
23 Oct, 22:004,695 MW4,455 MW
23 Oct, 23:004,523 MW4,296 MW
24 Oct, 00:004,167 MW4,080 MW
24 Oct, 01:003,906 MW3,848 MW
24 Oct, 02:003,802 MW3,736 MW
24 Oct, 03:003,775 MW3,712 MW
24 Oct, 04:003,818 MW3,773 MW
24 Oct, 05:003,973 MW3,884 MW
24 Oct, 06:004,281 MW4,083 MW
24 Oct, 07:004,563 MW4,350 MW
24 Oct, 08:004,636 MW4,440 MW
24 Oct, 09:004,629 MW4,502 MW
24 Oct, 10:004,686 MW4,637 MW
24 Oct, 11:004,735 MW4,700 MW
24 Oct, 12:004,719 MW4,613 MW
24 Oct, 13:004,643 MW4,452 MW
24 Oct, 14:004,616 MW4,403 MW
24 Oct, 15:004,730 MW4,537 MW
24 Oct, 16:005,018 MW4,702 MW
24 Oct, 17:005,194 MW4,947 MW
24 Oct, 18:005,337 MW5,266 MW
24 Oct, 19:005,359 MW5,240 MW
24 Oct, 20:005,194 MW5,063 MW
24 Oct, 21:004,889 MW4,813 MW
24 Oct, 22:004,729 MW4,605 MW
24 Oct, 23:004,555 MW4,378 MW
25 Oct, 00:004,217 MW4,094 MW
25 Oct, 01:003,943 MW3,859 MW
25 Oct, 02:003,874 MW3,766 MW
25 Oct, 02:003,755 MW3,760 MW
25 Oct, 03:003,780 MW3,733 MW
25 Oct, 04:003,849 MW3,788 MW
25 Oct, 05:004,000 MW3,900 MW
25 Oct, 06:004,216 MW4,103 MW
25 Oct, 07:004,313 MW4,184 MW
25 Oct, 08:004,265 MW4,248 MW
25 Oct, 09:003,990 MW4,331 MW
25 Oct, 10:003,899 MW4,373 MW
25 Oct, 11:003,895 MW4,406 MW
25 Oct, 12:004,102 MW4,480 MW
25 Oct, 13:004,331 MW4,480 MW
25 Oct, 14:004,595 MW4,581 MW
25 Oct, 15:004,881 MW4,779 MW
25 Oct, 16:005,227 MW4,976 MW
25 Oct, 17:005,415 MW5,293 MW
25 Oct, 18:005,352 MW5,337 MW
25 Oct, 19:005,323 MW5,313 MW
25 Oct, 20:005,141 MW5,137 MW
25 Oct, 21:004,952 MW4,838 MW
25 Oct, 22:004,754 MW4,612 MW
25 Oct, 23:004,494 MW4,334 MW
26 Oct, 00:004,205 MW4,077 MW
26 Oct, 01:004,090 MW3,822 MW
26 Oct, 02:004,037 MW3,740 MW
26 Oct, 03:004,021 MW3,766 MW
26 Oct, 04:004,124 MW3,965 MW
26 Oct, 05:004,479 MW4,387 MW
26 Oct, 06:005,143 MW5,119 MW
26 Oct, 07:005,281 MW5,231 MW
26 Oct, 08:004,994 MW5,071 MW
26 Oct, 09:004,678 MW4,792 MW
26 Oct, 10:004,647 MW4,723 MW
26 Oct, 11:004,763 MW4,764 MW
26 Oct, 12:004,961 MW4,830 MW
26 Oct, 13:005,064 MW4,921 MW
26 Oct, 14:005,290 MW5,092 MW
26 Oct, 15:005,679 MW5,397 MW
26 Oct, 16:006,039 MW5,717 MW
26 Oct, 17:006,105 MW5,958 MW
26 Oct, 18:006,104 MW5,968 MW
26 Oct, 19:006,054 MW5,913 MW
26 Oct, 20:005,825 MW5,706 MW
26 Oct, 21:005,693 MW5,369 MW
26 Oct, 22:005,373 MW5,110 MW
26 Oct, 23:005,098 MW4,887 MW
27 Oct, 00:004,829 MW4,619 MW
27 Oct, 01:004,588 MW4,357 MW
27 Oct, 02:004,510 MW4,256 MW
27 Oct, 03:004,509 MW4,278 MW
27 Oct, 04:004,637 MW4,447 MW
27 Oct, 05:004,951 MW4,839 MW
27 Oct, 06:005,465 MW5,388 MW
27 Oct, 07:005,425 MW5,295 MW
27 Oct, 08:004,949 MW4,917 MW
27 Oct, 09:004,457 MW4,581 MW
27 Oct, 10:004,294 MW4,451 MW
27 Oct, 11:004,401 MW4,451 MW
27 Oct, 12:004,525 MW4,480 MW
27 Oct, 13:004,593 MW4,565 MW
27 Oct, 14:004,845 MW4,811 MW
27 Oct, 15:005,468 MW5,256 MW
27 Oct, 16:005,985 MW5,726 MW
27 Oct, 17:006,198 MW5,995 MW
27 Oct, 18:006,192 MW5,999 MW
27 Oct, 19:006,186 MW5,971 MW
27 Oct, 20:005,965 MW5,759 MW
27 Oct, 21:005,802 MW5,434 MW
27 Oct, 22:005,565 MW5,210 MW
27 Oct, 23:005,265 MW4,982 MW
28 Oct, 00:004,896 MW4,628 MW
28 Oct, 01:004,638 MW4,349 MW
28 Oct, 02:004,570 MW4,235 MW
28 Oct, 03:004,537 MW4,256 MW
28 Oct, 04:004,680 MW4,439 MW
28 Oct, 05:004,971 MW4,827 MW
28 Oct, 06:005,501 MW5,399 MW
28 Oct, 07:005,446 MW5,361 MW
28 Oct, 08:004,958 MW4,955 MW
28 Oct, 09:004,454 MW4,658 MW
28 Oct, 10:004,340 MW4,505 MW
28 Oct, 11:004,286 MW4,551 MW
28 Oct, 12:004,455 MW4,585 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hu/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hu/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_hu_2026,
  title = {{Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hu/}
}

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