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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-North was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 388 MW (17.2%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 06:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-North was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 388 MW (17.2%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 06:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Centre-North came 20 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 68 MW, against average demand of 2,563 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 49% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.7%
Bias-0.3%
Hours within 5%85%
Worst miss388 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-9 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 388 MW (17.2%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 06:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 2,648 MW, reported 2,260 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy Centre-North day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-North over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-North over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:003,272 MW3,243 MW
21 Oct, 15:003,267 MW3,268 MW
21 Oct, 16:003,173 MW3,227 MW
21 Oct, 17:003,125 MW3,257 MW
21 Oct, 18:003,303 MW3,327 MW
21 Oct, 19:003,379 MW3,350 MW
21 Oct, 20:003,189 MW3,155 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,941 MW2,883 MW
21 Oct, 22:002,661 MW2,619 MW
21 Oct, 23:002,425 MW2,370 MW
22 Oct, 00:002,247 MW2,232 MW
22 Oct, 01:002,101 MW2,098 MW
22 Oct, 02:002,058 MW2,047 MW
22 Oct, 03:002,057 MW2,045 MW
22 Oct, 04:002,063 MW2,061 MW
22 Oct, 05:002,167 MW2,185 MW
22 Oct, 06:002,549 MW2,561 MW
22 Oct, 07:002,961 MW3,049 MW
22 Oct, 08:003,298 MW3,374 MW
22 Oct, 09:003,418 MW3,353 MW
22 Oct, 10:003,363 MW3,276 MW
22 Oct, 11:003,300 MW3,233 MW
22 Oct, 12:002,943 MW3,006 MW
22 Oct, 13:002,744 MW2,951 MW
22 Oct, 14:002,886 MW3,061 MW
22 Oct, 15:003,019 MW3,169 MW
22 Oct, 16:003,026 MW3,240 MW
22 Oct, 17:003,056 MW3,266 MW
22 Oct, 18:003,208 MW3,324 MW
22 Oct, 19:003,279 MW3,350 MW
22 Oct, 20:003,110 MW3,153 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,855 MW2,920 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,550 MW2,661 MW
22 Oct, 23:002,308 MW2,436 MW
23 Oct, 00:002,143 MW2,183 MW
23 Oct, 01:002,022 MW2,064 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,992 MW2,045 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,947 MW2,019 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,967 MW2,049 MW
23 Oct, 05:002,084 MW2,158 MW
23 Oct, 06:002,470 MW2,517 MW
23 Oct, 07:002,911 MW3,016 MW
23 Oct, 08:003,267 MW3,352 MW
23 Oct, 09:003,357 MW3,367 MW
23 Oct, 10:003,307 MW3,311 MW
23 Oct, 11:003,179 MW3,256 MW
23 Oct, 12:003,042 MW3,026 MW
23 Oct, 13:002,931 MW2,955 MW
23 Oct, 14:003,101 MW3,037 MW
23 Oct, 15:003,176 MW3,135 MW
23 Oct, 16:003,158 MW3,187 MW
23 Oct, 17:003,113 MW3,205 MW
23 Oct, 18:003,147 MW3,270 MW
23 Oct, 19:003,215 MW3,275 MW
23 Oct, 20:003,049 MW3,082 MW
23 Oct, 21:002,841 MW2,820 MW
23 Oct, 22:002,547 MW2,570 MW
23 Oct, 23:002,322 MW2,336 MW
24 Oct, 00:002,161 MW2,147 MW
24 Oct, 01:002,041 MW2,020 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,998 MW1,960 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,983 MW1,920 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,921 MW1,914 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,920 MW1,918 MW
24 Oct, 06:002,063 MW2,078 MW
24 Oct, 07:002,253 MW2,268 MW
24 Oct, 08:002,376 MW2,457 MW
24 Oct, 09:002,488 MW2,538 MW
24 Oct, 10:002,523 MW2,467 MW
24 Oct, 11:002,406 MW2,388 MW
24 Oct, 12:002,350 MW2,307 MW
24 Oct, 13:002,166 MW2,205 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,023 MW2,135 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,991 MW2,092 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,158 MW2,143 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,337 MW2,290 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,615 MW2,608 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,767 MW2,772 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,637 MW2,640 MW
24 Oct, 21:002,421 MW2,417 MW
24 Oct, 22:002,230 MW2,233 MW
24 Oct, 23:002,056 MW2,065 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,872 MW1,866 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,783 MW1,747 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,796 MW1,684 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,623 MW1,642 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,709 MW1,645 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,697 MW1,630 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,708 MW1,664 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,764 MW1,755 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,810 MW1,830 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,908 MW1,976 MW
25 Oct, 09:002,065 MW2,060 MW
25 Oct, 10:002,094 MW2,078 MW
25 Oct, 11:002,053 MW2,038 MW
25 Oct, 12:002,011 MW2,104 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,975 MW2,004 MW
25 Oct, 14:002,091 MW2,036 MW
25 Oct, 15:002,068 MW2,079 MW
25 Oct, 16:002,191 MW2,098 MW
25 Oct, 17:002,411 MW2,197 MW
25 Oct, 18:002,566 MW2,377 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,624 MW2,527 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,489 MW2,480 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,375 MW2,368 MW
25 Oct, 22:002,125 MW2,182 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,934 MW1,988 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,790 MW1,823 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,678 MW1,776 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,631 MW1,762 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,650 MW1,735 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,773 MW1,783 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,860 MW2,127 MW
26 Oct, 06:002,260 MW2,648 MW
26 Oct, 07:002,690 MW3,075 MW
26 Oct, 08:003,027 MW3,251 MW
26 Oct, 09:003,133 MW3,198 MW
26 Oct, 10:003,069 MW3,060 MW
26 Oct, 11:003,069 MW2,908 MW
26 Oct, 12:002,865 MW2,852 MW
26 Oct, 13:002,885 MW2,858 MW
26 Oct, 14:003,154 MW2,962 MW
26 Oct, 15:003,236 MW3,115 MW
26 Oct, 16:003,286 MW3,218 MW
26 Oct, 17:003,331 MW3,216 MW
26 Oct, 18:003,324 MW3,260 MW
26 Oct, 19:003,301 MW3,128 MW
26 Oct, 20:003,099 MW2,928 MW
26 Oct, 21:002,873 MW2,668 MW
26 Oct, 22:002,581 MW2,440 MW
26 Oct, 23:002,318 MW2,235 MW
27 Oct, 00:002,135 MW2,075 MW
27 Oct, 01:002,057 MW2,007 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,980 MW1,987 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,967 MW1,983 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,985 MW2,055 MW
27 Oct, 05:002,089 MW2,288 MW
27 Oct, 06:002,494 MW2,771 MW
27 Oct, 07:002,920 MW3,128 MW
27 Oct, 08:003,155 MW3,258 MW
27 Oct, 09:003,146 MW3,158 MW
27 Oct, 10:003,091 MW3,028 MW
27 Oct, 11:003,002 MW2,867 MW
27 Oct, 12:002,841 MW2,833 MW
27 Oct, 13:002,851 MW2,920 MW
27 Oct, 14:003,050 MW3,075 MW
27 Oct, 15:003,148 MW3,248 MW
27 Oct, 16:003,232 MW3,322 MW
27 Oct, 17:003,338 MW3,328 MW
27 Oct, 18:003,352 MW3,330 MW
27 Oct, 19:003,333 MW3,212 MW
27 Oct, 20:003,142 MW3,018 MW
27 Oct, 21:002,911 MW2,737 MW
27 Oct, 22:002,565 MW2,485 MW
27 Oct, 23:002,323 MW2,253 MW
28 Oct, 00:002,122 MW2,055 MW
28 Oct, 01:002,031 MW1,971 MW
28 Oct, 02:002,015 MW1,944 MW
28 Oct, 03:002,013 MW1,952 MW
28 Oct, 04:002,027 MW2,023 MW
28 Oct, 05:002,130 MW2,117 MW
28 Oct, 06:002,488 MW2,491 MW
28 Oct, 07:002,857 MW2,877 MW
28 Oct, 08:003,193 MW3,212 MW
28 Oct, 09:003,185 MW3,270 MW
28 Oct, 10:003,242 MW3,254 MW
28 Oct, 11:003,250 MW3,143 MW
28 Oct, 12:002,960 MW3,030 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cnor/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cnor/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_cnor_2026,
  title = {{Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cnor/}
}

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