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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Denmark West (DK1) was off by 1.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 643 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 375 MW (14.7%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Copenhagen).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Denmark West (DK1) was off by 1.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 643 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 375 MW (14.7%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Denmark West (DK1) came 1 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 30 MW, against average demand of 2,802 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 43% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

643 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error1.1%
Bias-0.4%
Hours within 5%98%
Worst miss375 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-10 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 375 MW (14.7%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,174 MW, reported 2,549 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Denmark West (DK1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Denmark West (DK1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 21 Oct, 15:0022 Oct, 15:0023 Oct, 15:0024 Oct, 15:0025 Oct, 14:0026 Oct, 14:0027 Oct, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Denmark West (DK1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 15:003,198 MW3,188 MW
21 Oct, 16:003,203 MW3,204 MW
21 Oct, 17:003,263 MW3,281 MW
21 Oct, 18:003,153 MW3,157 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,980 MW2,993 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,820 MW2,822 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,726 MW2,705 MW
21 Oct, 22:002,631 MW2,619 MW
21 Oct, 23:002,584 MW2,538 MW
22 Oct, 00:00n/a2,614 MW
22 Oct, 01:002,676 MW2,655 MW
22 Oct, 02:002,849 MW2,805 MW
22 Oct, 03:00n/a3,037 MW
22 Oct, 04:00n/a3,043 MW
22 Oct, 05:002,717 MW2,794 MW
22 Oct, 06:002,768 MW2,794 MW
22 Oct, 07:003,034 MW3,038 MW
22 Oct, 08:003,142 MW3,140 MW
22 Oct, 09:003,239 MW3,223 MW
22 Oct, 10:00n/a3,347 MW
22 Oct, 11:003,509 MW3,489 MW
22 Oct, 12:003,741 MW3,657 MW
22 Oct, 13:003,870 MW3,879 MW
22 Oct, 14:00n/a3,569 MW
22 Oct, 15:003,279 MW3,333 MW
22 Oct, 16:003,081 MW3,113 MW
22 Oct, 17:00n/a3,176 MW
22 Oct, 18:003,135 MW3,129 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,945 MW2,968 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,739 MW2,757 MW
22 Oct, 21:00n/a2,629 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,505 MW2,536 MW
22 Oct, 23:002,421 MW2,465 MW
23 Oct, 00:002,487 MW2,483 MW
23 Oct, 01:002,550 MW2,534 MW
23 Oct, 02:002,627 MW2,609 MW
23 Oct, 03:002,567 MW2,570 MW
23 Oct, 04:00n/a2,495 MW
23 Oct, 05:002,439 MW2,452 MW
23 Oct, 06:002,667 MW2,667 MW
23 Oct, 07:00n/a2,963 MW
23 Oct, 08:003,056 MW3,072 MW
23 Oct, 09:003,155 MW3,128 MW
23 Oct, 10:003,324 MW3,307 MW
23 Oct, 11:00n/a3,397 MW
23 Oct, 12:003,394 MW3,388 MW
23 Oct, 13:003,243 MW3,238 MW
23 Oct, 14:003,101 MW3,114 MW
23 Oct, 15:00n/a3,028 MW
23 Oct, 16:003,004 MW2,994 MW
23 Oct, 17:003,147 MW3,132 MW
23 Oct, 18:00n/a3,090 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,861 MW2,863 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,717 MW2,721 MW
23 Oct, 21:00n/a2,642 MW
23 Oct, 22:002,463 MW2,567 MW
23 Oct, 23:002,449 MW2,508 MW
24 Oct, 00:002,926 MW2,851 MW
24 Oct, 01:003,014 MW2,993 MW
24 Oct, 02:003,161 MW3,126 MW
24 Oct, 03:003,023 MW3,053 MW
24 Oct, 04:002,916 MW2,967 MW
24 Oct, 05:002,590 MW2,640 MW
24 Oct, 06:002,518 MW2,536 MW
24 Oct, 07:002,598 MW2,595 MW
24 Oct, 08:002,673 MW2,684 MW
24 Oct, 09:002,888 MW2,856 MW
24 Oct, 10:003,046 MW3,010 MW
24 Oct, 11:003,178 MW3,144 MW
24 Oct, 12:00n/a3,286 MW
24 Oct, 13:003,376 MW3,350 MW
24 Oct, 14:00n/a3,319 MW
24 Oct, 15:00n/a3,121 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,971 MW2,980 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,832 MW2,880 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,698 MW2,677 MW
24 Oct, 19:00n/a2,618 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,717 MW2,689 MW
24 Oct, 21:002,705 MW2,658 MW
24 Oct, 22:00n/a2,580 MW
24 Oct, 23:002,714 MW2,515 MW
25 Oct, 00:002,913 MW2,871 MW
25 Oct, 01:00n/a3,011 MW
25 Oct, 02:00n/a3,061 MW
25 Oct, 02:00n/a3,070 MW
25 Oct, 03:00n/a2,906 MW
25 Oct, 04:002,841 MW2,841 MW
25 Oct, 05:002,680 MW2,724 MW
25 Oct, 06:002,584 MW2,604 MW
25 Oct, 07:00n/a2,753 MW
25 Oct, 08:003,021 MW3,018 MW
25 Oct, 09:003,194 MW3,166 MW
25 Oct, 10:003,096 MW3,155 MW
25 Oct, 11:003,285 MW3,256 MW
25 Oct, 12:003,327 MW3,341 MW
25 Oct, 13:00n/a3,305 MW
25 Oct, 14:00n/a3,235 MW
25 Oct, 15:003,233 MW3,202 MW
25 Oct, 16:003,258 MW3,254 MW
25 Oct, 17:00n/a3,263 MW
25 Oct, 18:003,126 MW3,125 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,949 MW2,959 MW
25 Oct, 20:00n/a2,809 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,961 MW2,907 MW
25 Oct, 22:002,825 MW2,966 MW
25 Oct, 23:002,768 MW2,901 MW
26 Oct, 00:003,035 MW3,012 MW
26 Oct, 01:002,984 MW2,986 MW
26 Oct, 02:002,954 MW2,951 MW
26 Oct, 03:002,876 MW2,891 MW
26 Oct, 04:002,655 MW2,687 MW
26 Oct, 05:002,525 MW2,558 MW
26 Oct, 06:00n/a2,924 MW
26 Oct, 07:00n/a3,236 MW
26 Oct, 08:003,360 MW3,361 MW
26 Oct, 09:003,478 MW3,455 MW
26 Oct, 10:003,621 MW3,636 MW
26 Oct, 11:003,872 MW3,817 MW
26 Oct, 12:003,408 MW3,482 MW
26 Oct, 13:003,501 MW3,485 MW
26 Oct, 14:00n/a3,316 MW
26 Oct, 15:003,166 MW3,200 MW
26 Oct, 16:00n/a3,103 MW
26 Oct, 17:003,147 MW3,166 MW
26 Oct, 18:003,086 MW3,085 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,930 MW2,922 MW
26 Oct, 20:00n/a2,848 MW
26 Oct, 21:00n/a2,678 MW
26 Oct, 22:002,565 MW2,586 MW
26 Oct, 23:002,586 MW2,503 MW
27 Oct, 00:002,940 MW2,899 MW
27 Oct, 01:002,756 MW2,799 MW
27 Oct, 02:002,760 MW2,737 MW
27 Oct, 03:00n/a2,796 MW
27 Oct, 04:00n/a2,859 MW
27 Oct, 05:002,861 MW2,903 MW
27 Oct, 06:003,091 MW3,085 MW
27 Oct, 07:003,164 MW3,212 MW
27 Oct, 08:003,250 MW3,239 MW
27 Oct, 09:003,292 MW3,300 MW
27 Oct, 10:00n/a3,375 MW
27 Oct, 11:003,556 MW3,501 MW
27 Oct, 12:003,647 MW3,643 MW
27 Oct, 13:00n/a3,496 MW
27 Oct, 14:00n/a3,359 MW
27 Oct, 15:003,276 MW3,280 MW
27 Oct, 16:003,334 MW3,319 MW
27 Oct, 17:00n/a3,419 MW
27 Oct, 18:003,232 MW3,247 MW
27 Oct, 19:003,020 MW3,030 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,813 MW2,832 MW
27 Oct, 21:002,695 MW2,695 MW
27 Oct, 22:002,590 MW2,554 MW
27 Oct, 23:002,513 MW2,475 MW
28 Oct, 00:002,787 MW2,740 MW
28 Oct, 01:002,659 MW2,687 MW
28 Oct, 02:002,484 MW2,500 MW
28 Oct, 03:002,405 MW2,407 MW
28 Oct, 04:00n/a2,294 MW
28 Oct, 05:002,385 MW2,374 MW
28 Oct, 06:00n/a2,694 MW
28 Oct, 07:002,975 MW2,988 MW
28 Oct, 08:003,086 MW3,074 MW
28 Oct, 09:00n/a3,142 MW
28 Oct, 10:003,213 MW3,229 MW
28 Oct, 11:003,319 MW3,256 MW
28 Oct, 12:003,409 MW3,413 MW
28 Oct, 13:003,530 MW3,518 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (643 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dk1/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dk1/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_dk1_2026,
  title = {{Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dk1/}
}

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