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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for FPC was off by 24.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -24.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,080 MW (30.8%) too low at 28 Sept 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for FPC was off by 24.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -24.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,080 MW (30.8%) too low at 28 Sept 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, FPC came 49 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,628 MW, against average demand of 6,589 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error24.4%
Bias-24.4%
Hours within 5%0%
Worst miss3,080 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,628 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 3,080 MW (30.8%) too low at 28 Sept 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 6,923 MW, reported 10,003 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
FPC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 21 Oct, 08:0022 Oct, 08:0023 Oct, 08:0024 Oct, 08:0025 Oct, 08:0026 Oct, 08:0027 Oct, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 08:004,998 MW3,785 MW
21 Oct, 09:005,025 MW3,766 MW
21 Oct, 10:005,126 MW3,817 MW
21 Oct, 11:005,333 MW3,960 MW
21 Oct, 12:005,739 MW4,202 MW
21 Oct, 13:006,171 MW4,490 MW
21 Oct, 14:006,544 MW4,809 MW
21 Oct, 15:006,948 MW5,162 MW
21 Oct, 16:007,324 MW5,456 MW
21 Oct, 17:007,488 MW5,555 MW
21 Oct, 18:007,302 MW5,487 MW
21 Oct, 19:007,208 MW5,349 MW
21 Oct, 20:006,807 MW5,115 MW
21 Oct, 21:006,319 MW4,740 MW
21 Oct, 22:005,638 MW4,303 MW
21 Oct, 23:005,040 MW3,890 MW
22 Oct, 00:004,556 MW3,484 MW
22 Oct, 01:004,193 MW3,233 MW
22 Oct, 02:003,963 MW3,062 MW
22 Oct, 03:003,851 MW2,978 MW
22 Oct, 04:003,878 MW3,012 MW
22 Oct, 05:004,136 MW3,211 MW
22 Oct, 06:004,612 MW3,523 MW
22 Oct, 07:004,917 MW3,724 MW
22 Oct, 08:005,049 MW3,759 MW
22 Oct, 09:005,089 MW3,730 MW
22 Oct, 10:005,118 MW3,768 MW
22 Oct, 11:005,201 MW3,887 MW
22 Oct, 12:005,395 MW4,098 MW
22 Oct, 13:005,677 MW4,332 MW
22 Oct, 14:006,064 MW4,599 MW
22 Oct, 15:006,508 MW4,902 MW
22 Oct, 16:006,938 MW5,161 MW
22 Oct, 17:007,150 MW5,250 MW
22 Oct, 18:006,968 MW5,198 MW
22 Oct, 19:006,886 MW5,106 MW
22 Oct, 20:006,521 MW4,913 MW
22 Oct, 21:006,079 MW4,573 MW
22 Oct, 22:005,474 MW4,170 MW
22 Oct, 23:004,894 MW3,802 MW
23 Oct, 00:004,445 MW3,455 MW
23 Oct, 01:004,114 MW3,213 MW
23 Oct, 02:003,935 MW3,048 MW
23 Oct, 03:003,838 MW2,965 MW
23 Oct, 04:003,879 MW2,999 MW
23 Oct, 05:004,120 MW3,195 MW
23 Oct, 06:004,573 MW3,507 MW
23 Oct, 07:004,871 MW3,719 MW
23 Oct, 08:005,002 MW3,783 MW
23 Oct, 09:005,074 MW3,789 MW
23 Oct, 10:005,139 MW3,854 MW
23 Oct, 11:005,240 MW3,993 MW
23 Oct, 12:005,492 MW4,236 MW
23 Oct, 13:005,845 MW4,500 MW
23 Oct, 14:006,202 MW4,786 MW
23 Oct, 15:006,578 MW5,114 MW
23 Oct, 16:006,904 MW5,419 MW
23 Oct, 17:007,003 MW5,517 MW
23 Oct, 18:006,753 MW5,426 MW
23 Oct, 19:006,625 MW5,269 MW
23 Oct, 20:006,314 MW5,028 MW
23 Oct, 21:005,972 MW4,704 MW
23 Oct, 22:005,536 MW4,338 MW
23 Oct, 23:005,080 MW3,988 MW
24 Oct, 00:004,654 MW3,584 MW
24 Oct, 01:004,295 MW3,320 MW
24 Oct, 02:004,042 MW3,131 MW
24 Oct, 03:003,925 MW3,019 MW
24 Oct, 04:003,888 MW2,982 MW
24 Oct, 05:003,970 MW3,022 MW
24 Oct, 06:004,176 MW3,136 MW
24 Oct, 07:004,459 MW3,290 MW
24 Oct, 08:004,802 MW3,488 MW
24 Oct, 09:005,091 MW3,678 MW
24 Oct, 10:005,266 MW3,829 MW
24 Oct, 11:005,481 MW4,000 MW
24 Oct, 12:005,819 MW4,214 MW
24 Oct, 13:006,161 MW4,442 MW
24 Oct, 14:006,508 MW4,694 MW
24 Oct, 15:006,703 MW4,959 MW
24 Oct, 16:006,862 MW5,186 MW
24 Oct, 17:006,825 MW5,288 MW
24 Oct, 18:006,633 MW5,249 MW
24 Oct, 19:006,560 MW5,133 MW
24 Oct, 20:006,340 MW4,925 MW
24 Oct, 21:006,057 MW4,630 MW
24 Oct, 22:005,676 MW4,307 MW
24 Oct, 23:005,254 MW3,989 MW
25 Oct, 00:004,875 MW3,715 MW
25 Oct, 01:004,537 MW3,486 MW
25 Oct, 02:004,319 MW3,311 MW
25 Oct, 03:004,189 MW3,204 MW
25 Oct, 04:004,136 MW3,167 MW
25 Oct, 05:004,158 MW3,188 MW
25 Oct, 06:004,309 MW3,278 MW
25 Oct, 07:004,524 MW3,430 MW
25 Oct, 08:004,921 MW3,681 MW
25 Oct, 09:005,369 MW3,955 MW
25 Oct, 10:005,773 MW4,180 MW
25 Oct, 11:006,206 MW4,385 MW
25 Oct, 12:006,535 MW4,573 MW
25 Oct, 13:006,889 MW4,714 MW
25 Oct, 14:007,179 MW4,889 MW
25 Oct, 15:007,415 MW5,117 MW
25 Oct, 16:007,517 MW5,311 MW
25 Oct, 17:007,437 MW5,367 MW
25 Oct, 18:007,221 MW5,320 MW
25 Oct, 19:007,155 MW5,234 MW
25 Oct, 20:006,842 MW5,066 MW
25 Oct, 21:006,403 MW4,744 MW
25 Oct, 22:005,838 MW4,369 MW
25 Oct, 23:005,286 MW3,965 MW
26 Oct, 00:004,870 MW3,701 MW
26 Oct, 01:004,554 MW3,444 MW
26 Oct, 02:004,316 MW3,272 MW
26 Oct, 03:004,196 MW3,199 MW
26 Oct, 04:004,230 MW3,238 MW
26 Oct, 05:004,512 MW3,453 MW
26 Oct, 06:004,962 MW3,766 MW
26 Oct, 07:005,244 MW4,002 MW
26 Oct, 08:005,417 MW4,118 MW
26 Oct, 09:005,699 MW4,226 MW
26 Oct, 10:005,988 MW4,360 MW
26 Oct, 11:006,281 MW4,538 MW
26 Oct, 12:006,570 MW4,746 MW
26 Oct, 13:006,900 MW4,937 MW
26 Oct, 14:007,171 MW5,115 MW
26 Oct, 15:007,435 MW5,322 MW
26 Oct, 16:007,711 MW5,529 MW
26 Oct, 17:007,711 MW5,633 MW
26 Oct, 18:007,512 MW5,603 MW
26 Oct, 19:007,461 MW5,526 MW
26 Oct, 20:007,080 MW5,302 MW
26 Oct, 21:006,582 MW4,942 MW
26 Oct, 22:005,947 MW4,502 MW
26 Oct, 23:005,351 MW4,059 MW
27 Oct, 00:004,969 MW3,749 MW
27 Oct, 01:004,593 MW3,487 MW
27 Oct, 02:004,334 MW3,312 MW
27 Oct, 03:004,210 MW3,226 MW
27 Oct, 04:004,222 MW3,255 MW
27 Oct, 05:004,464 MW3,459 MW
27 Oct, 06:004,920 MW3,769 MW
27 Oct, 07:005,253 MW3,995 MW
27 Oct, 08:005,379 MW4,098 MW
27 Oct, 09:005,508 MW4,196 MW
27 Oct, 10:005,644 MW4,358 MW
27 Oct, 11:005,970 MW4,547 MW
27 Oct, 12:006,354 MW4,772 MW
27 Oct, 13:006,674 MW4,972 MW
27 Oct, 14:006,955 MW5,175 MW
27 Oct, 15:007,348 MW5,381 MW
27 Oct, 16:007,715 MW5,582 MW
27 Oct, 17:007,892 MW5,691 MW
27 Oct, 18:007,771 MW5,679 MW
27 Oct, 19:007,752 MW5,600 MW
27 Oct, 20:007,403 MW5,375 MW
27 Oct, 21:006,960 MW5,025 MW
27 Oct, 22:006,350 MW4,591 MW
27 Oct, 23:005,762 MW4,163 MW
28 Oct, 00:005,104 MW3,852 MW
28 Oct, 01:004,759 MW3,608 MW
28 Oct, 02:004,546 MW3,435 MW
28 Oct, 03:004,416 MW3,354 MW
28 Oct, 04:004,415 MW3,391 MW
28 Oct, 05:004,678 MW3,602 MW
28 Oct, 06:005,145 MW3,912 MW
28 Oct, 07:005,413 MW4,140 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fpc_2026,
  title = {{FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/

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